The Southern University Jaguars take on the Fresno State Bulldogs in Fresno, CA. Kickoff is set for 10 p.m. ET on Mountain West Network.
Fresno State is favored by 35.5 points on the spread, and the total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my Southern vs. Fresno State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 13, 2025.
Southern vs Fresno State Prediction
- Southern vs. Fresno State Pick: Under 48.5 (Small Play)
My Fresno State vs. Southern best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Southern vs Fresno State Odds
| Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+35.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 / -110 | N/A |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-35.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 / -110 | N/A |
- Southern vs Fresno State point spread: Fresno State -35.5
- Southern vs Fresno State over/under: 48.5 points
Southern vs Fresno State Preview
Southern University Jaguars Betting Preview: Pass Game the Biggest Problem
Southern comes in off a difficult 30-7 loss at home against Alabama State last week. The Jaguars hung in there defensively in the first half and took the lead in the third quarter, but ultimately couldn't sustain any offensive success and faded down the stretch.
The pass game continues to hamper the success of the Jaguars' offense, as Southern quarterbacks have combined to throw for 400 yards on 44 completed passes over three games.
The Jaguars find themselves in third down way too often and have struggled to consistently convert there and in the red zone (just three of seven red zone trips have hit paydirt).
Defensively, this group is stout, per SWAC standards, and plays well situationally. The Jaguars have been effective at creating havoc, registering seven sacks and 21 tackles for loss.
Opponents are converting just 35% of third-down attempts against Southern, and the red zone defense has stood tall, with just six of 14 opponent trips resulting in touchdowns.
I'll be interested to see how this Southern defense competes against the Bulldogs, who like to use big bodies in their personnel groupings with multiple tight ends and running backs in the mix.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Impressing Early On
Fresno State has put together a couple of nice games in recent weeks following a season-opening loss in Week 0 on the road at Kansas.
The Bulldogs were able to put together a game-winning drive in the final minute last week against Oregon State, with E.J. Warner going 4-of-4 on the final possession, along with picking up two key first downs on the ground.
Fresno State added a defensive touchdown on the game’s final play to make the final score a bit misleading.
I've been highly impressed with the Fresno State offense the last two weeks, as this group has found a rhythm on the ground, which was missing in the opener.
Fresno has run for 548 yards the last two weeks while averaging 7.5 yards per carry. Warner has been efficient in the pass game while completing 73% of his passes, but he's yet to find the end zone this season through the air.
Defense has been a concern for the Bulldogs, as this group surrendered 528 yards against Oregon State last week and has given up six yards per play this season.
I would expect pass coverage to be a focus for this group this week, as the Bulldogs have given up 69% completions and nine passing touchdowns against them already this year.
The defense played its best football at home and is now facing Southern, an opponent that struggles to throw the football. The Jaguars should struggle here as well.
Southern vs Fresno State Pick, Betting Analysis
Southern is really going to struggle to move the football against Fresno State. The Bulldogs should be able to load the box here and force Southern quarterback Cam’Ron McCoy to throw over the top, which I'm not confident he can do.
McCoy is completing just 52% of his passes this season, and Southern has just two explosive pass plays all season. The Jaguars are averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the season, and they run the ball on 61% of their snaps. I would expect to see a ton of it here.
Fresno State will run the ball quite often and should have success moving it on the ground. We still haven’t seen Elijah Gilliam really get going yet this year to complement the work being done by running backs Bryson Donelson and Rayshon Luke.
I would expect these two to have limited touches as Fresno works Gilliam and Brandon Ramirez into the rotation at running back.
Fresno State has a road trip to Hawaii on deck and still hasn't had a bye week yet this season. I assume head coach Matt Entz's mindset is to build a lead of around 21 points and wrap up the game early and injury-free.
There's very little reason to run it up on an HBCU opponent, and I would expect this one to be a very defensive-focused second half while rotating in some of the capable running backs.
Fresno State needs a feel-good performance from its defense heading to the Island. It should get it here. I'll make a small play on under 48.5
Pick: Under 48.5
