Stanford vs UCLA Betting Odds, Picks: Can Bruins Cover in LA?
Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: UCLA wide receiver Jake Bobo.
- UCLA hosts Stanford and is looking to get back on track after losing at Oregon last week.
- Meanwhile, Stanford has won back-to-back games and is hoping to keep the positive momentum rolling.
- Cody Goggin breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Stanford vs UCLA Odds
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
Stanford will travel to Pasadena to take on UCLA after picking up back-to-back wins against Notre Dame and Arizona State.
Meanwhile, UCLA is coming off of its first loss of the season after losing at Oregon in the biggest game of last week’s slate.
Stanford’s defense has had success in recent weeks, but hasn't been playing offenses of UCLA's caliber. When Stanford faced elite offenses earlier this season, it was unable to keep games close and fell well short of victory.
This matchup provides a mismatch that favors the Bruins and should allow them a big day on the ground.
Stanford Cardinal
Cardinal Offense
Stanford’s offense has struggled to move the ball this year and has also been unable to generate explosive plays. The Cardinal rank 59th in offensive success rate, 55th in passing success rate and 65th in rushing success rate. They are the 63rd-ranked offense by SP+ and are 77th in explosiveness.
The offensive line has been a sticking point for this offense as Stanford ranks 94th in pass blocking grade by Pro Football Focus. Luckily, the Cardinal should get some reprieve this week as UCLA’s pass rush hasn’t been anything to write home about.
Cardinal Defense
This defense isn’t exceptional and will have its hands full against a potent UCLA offense.
Stanford is rated as the 81st best defense by SP+ and rank 85th in defensive success rate. Rushing defense has been this team's Achilles’ heel as Stanford is 113th in rushing defense success rate and 120th in EPA per rush allowed. This may pose massive problems for the Cardinal against UCLA.
UCLA Bruins
Bruins Offense
This is hands down the best unit in this game. UCLA’s offense has been among the best in the country this season. The Bruins rank second in offensive success rate, first in passing success rate and 10th in rushing success rate. The Bruins are ranked as the fifth best offense by SP+ and have the 10th highest PFF offense grade.
In 2021, UCLA had a potent rushing attack led by Zach Charbonnet and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. This year, the Bruins still have that duo, but have also become one of the best passing offenses in the country.
Thompson-Robinson is averaging 0.42 yards per dropback and 0.39 yards per rush this season. He is completing 75% of his passes and has 17 passing touchdowns to just three interceptions.
He's also added four rushing touchdowns. If UCLA had defeated Oregon last week, Thompson-Robinson would be in the thick of the Heisman race.
Charbonnet has been the true bell-cow running back for this offense and has 109 carries for 771 yards this season. No other back on the team has more than 50 rushes. He is averaging 0.17 EPA per rush and has a 59% success rate on those plays.
Against a Stanford defense that struggles to stop the run, Charbonnet may play a large role in UCLA getting a win on Saturday night.
Bruins Defense
UCLA ranks 108th in defensive success rate and has been poor against the run, ranking 114th.
The opposing offenses the Bruins have had to face have not done them any favors. UCLA’s defense is ranked 54th by SP+, which is not as bad as their raw numbers suggest.
Despite their statistical struggles, PFF gives UCLA the 31st best defensive grade and the 32nd best coverage grade.
Defense is not the strong suit of this team by any means, but the unit has been brought down by facing great offenses in each of the past three weeks. Against a Stanford team that hasn’t been nearly as prolific as previous opponents, UCLA's defense should have a better day.
Stanford vs UCLA Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Stanford and UCLA match up statistically:
Stanford Offense vs. UCLA Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 96 | |
| Line Yards | 118 | 99 | |
| Pass Success | 74 | 90 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 95 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 101 | 104 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 55 | 96 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
UCLA Offense vs. Stanford Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 7 | 119 | |
| Line Yards | 6 | 129 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 42 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 10 | 82 | |
| Havoc | 4 | 66 | |
| Finishing Drives | 49 | 71 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 58 | 36 |
| PFF Coverage | 105 | 31 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 17 | 75 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.4 (43) | 23.6 (18) |
| Rush Rate | 47.7% (98) | 53.0% (70) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Stanford vs UCLA Betting Pick
UCLA simply has too much firepower for this line to be where it is. After a hard-fought loss to Oregon last week, I think UCLA will rebound against the Cardinal.
The key to this game will be the legs of Charbonnet and Thompson-Robinson. Those two should be able to do plenty of damage against a Stanford rushing defense that is ranked 124th in PFF run defense grade.
Stanford’s offense may have some success, but likely won't stand a chance at hanging around with the Bruins.
Pick: UCLA -16.5 ⋅ Bet to -17 |
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