The Stony Brook Seawolves take on the San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, CA. Kickoff is set for 10 p.m. ET on Mountain West Network.
San Diego State is favored by -18.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1050. The total is set at 53.5 points.
Here’s my Stony Brook vs. San Diego State prediction and college football picks for Thursday, August 28, 2025.
Stony Brook vs San Diego State Prediction
- Stony Brook vs. San Diego State Pick: San Diego State -18.5
My Stony Brook vs San Diego State best bet is on the Aztecs spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Stony Brook vs San Diego State Odds
| Stony Brook Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
- Stony Brook vs San Diego State point spread: San Diego St -18.5
- Stony Brook vs San Diego State over/under: 53.5 points
- Stony Brook vs San Diego State moneyline: Stony Brook +650, San Diego St -1000
Stony Brook vs San Diego State Preview
Stony Brook Seawolves Betting Preview: Will They Outperform Expectations Again?
Stony Brook really outperformed expectations last season under first-year coach Billy Cosh, as the Seawolves won eight games following an 0-10 regular season in 2023.
The strength of the offense in 2024 was the decision making and passing prowess of Tyler Knoop, who completed 69% of his passes with a 17:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, along with running back Roland Dempster, who ran for 1,332 yards and 18 touchdowns.
This year, Knoop departs and in comes Hampton University starting quarterback Chris Zellous to battle with Casey Case, who was third string last year.
The offensive line is relying on some transfer pieces, and I would expect Stony Brook to be very run-heavy early on this season.
The defense loses major pieces from a line that really did well to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Stony Brook registered 30 sacks last season, but all of the major contributors are gone, and the secondary will pay the price.
The pass coverage unit for the Seawolves is replacing everyone with starting experience from last year, and they're relying on transfers from Maine, Long Island University and Holy Cross to gel together quickly.
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview: Optimism From Offense
Things didn't go as planned for Sean Lewis and the “Aztec-Fast” offense in 2024, as an argument could be made that no team in Mountain West Conference play received worse quarterback play than San Diego State.
The offensive success rate on first and second down was inferior, and the offensive line was underwhelming, allowing sacks on 8.3% of dropbacks.
We thought last year that maybe we would see some growing pains, as this bunch didn't have the offensive personnel required to be effective in a system that was a complete 180 from the season before.
There's room for optimism in 2025, however.
The offense received quite the boost via the portal when both Jayden Denegal and Bert Emanuel Jr. transferred in at quarterback. While Denegal will command this attack as the primary quarterback, we'll see Emanuel in special packages.
The running back room is exciting with Lucky Sutton and Christian Washington set to split carries, and high upside receivers make for some exciting potential here.
Growth along the offensive line will allow for the Aztecs to take a major step forward.
Defensively, 10 starters return, including a handful of contributors along the defensive line and both starting linebackers.
Mister Williams also transfers in from Incarnate Word at linebacker and will help bolster the run defense.
The secondary is more experienced, led by Chris Johnson and Bryce Phillips at the corner positions.
Josiah Cox was a solid grab in the portal and should factor into the rotation for the Aztecs.
Stony Brook vs San Diego State Pick, Betting Analysis
We've seen some major market steam on the Aztecs, as this line has been bet up in recent weeks after opening at -12.5.
I'm laying it here with San Diego State. We have a team needing to put up a big number here, with an offensive-minded coach who likes to score and rack up the yards.
The Aztecs took their lumps offensively last season, but I fully expect a more sharply executed operation in this one, with explosives in the run game with both mobile, athletic quarterbacks used.
Stony Brook won't be able to stop the run here, and the pass coverage unit could get torched. Although Lewis’ offenses are known for being fast and high scoring, they do run the ball often.
Watch for heavy run action to set up some play action, and the SDSU receivers will separate and win the one-on-one battles, in addition to gaping holes for Sutton and Washington to run through.
A veteran SDSU defense with 10 starters back from last season will be even stronger and more experienced, and I suspect Stony Brook will look one dimensional, as it wants to run the football.
Zellous transferred in to be the starter, and he threw 20 interceptions over the last two seasons at Hampton. He could be under significant pressure by the Aztec front seven in this one.
I would suspect the Aztecs force a couple of turnovers created by defensive havoc, which could lead to short fields and quick scores.
Get this play locked in early, as this game takes place on Thursday. I'm willing to lay anything under 21.
Pick: San Diego State -18.5 (Play to -20.5)
Stony Brook vs San Diego State Betting Trends
