Tennessee vs. Kentucky Betting Guide | NCAAF Odds, Picks
Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: Jaylen Wright (Tennessee)
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
The cigar smoke has settled, as has most of Tennessee’s hopes of winning the SEC East crown.
The Volunteers head to Kroger Field, where Kentucky (5-2) lost the last time out. The Wildcats have dropped two straight since their 5-0 start, but they've have had an extra week of preparation to try and beat Tennessee for the first time in a full season since 2017.
Tennessee is just 1-4 outright in its last four true road games, losing by double digits in all four of those losses.
Will the trend continue in Lexington, or can Tennessee cover and win its first road game of the year?
Tennessee hits the road for the second consecutive week, as the Volunteers are all but eliminated from SEC East contention. Currently tied for fourth, things only get more difficult for Tennessee with matchups against three of the division’s top four teams remaining on the schedule.
If the Vols could take how they played in the first half against Alabama last week and combine it with the second half of their loss at Florida, they’d likely be undefeated and one of the best teams in the country.
Unfortunately, that’s not how football works.
Tennessee watched a 20-7 halftime lead over the Crimson Tide evaporate into a 34-20 loss, as the Tennessee offense slowed to a halt in the final 30 minutes. The inconsistent Joe Milton III had just 96 yards passing in the second half and had his fourth-quarter fumble returned for six to ultimately put the game out of reach.
It hasn't been the type of year Tennessee fans hoped for from the veteran quarterback. Milton has a bazooka for an arm, but his accuracy drops precipitously on throws more than 20 yards in length. Tennessee’s explosiveness has suffered because of it.
Last season, Tennessee finished with 55 passing plays of at least 20 yards in length, tied for 19th in the nation. This year, the Vols are 120th with just 14 such passing plays.
Jaylen Wright and Tennessee’s running game has picked up the slack, as the Vols’ passing game has slipped. The Vols are 38th in Rush Success Rate, with Wright eclipsing the 100-yard mark four times this season.
Tennessee's defensive success has arguably been its biggest surprise to date. The Vols are top-25 in Rush and Pass Success Allowed, as well as Havoc and Line Yards.
The Vols have dominated at the line of scrimmage, ranking 10th nationally in tackles for loss (57) and fourth in sacks (28).
Kentucky returns from a bye, having time to digest its rapid return to Earth after dropping its first two games of the season in successive weeks.
Labeled as one of the transfer-portal prizes of this past offseason, quarterback Devin Leary has played nowhere close to those lofty expectations.
Leary’s 196.7 passing yards per game are 10th in the SEC, down more than 90 yards from his last full season as a starter for NC State. Even with the rehiring of offensive coordinator Liam Coen, Kentucky’s passing attack has actually regressed from 2022, dropping to 13th in the SEC.
Fortunately for the Wildcats, running back Ray Davis has been one of the best transfer additions in the country. The former Vanderbilt rusher leads the SEC with 111.6 yards per game (buoyed by a 280-yard outburst vs. Florida) and is a major reason why Kentucky is 16th in Rush Success Rate.
Kentucky’s defensive numbers have regressed, as it moved into the heart of its schedule. While the Wildcats are 16th in Rush Success Allowed, they’ve allowed 89 total points and over 900 yards of offense in their last two games against Georgia and Missouri.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tennessee and Kentucky match up statistically:
Tennessee Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 38 | 16 | |
| Line Yards | 22 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 57 | |
| Havoc | 9 | 68 | |
| Finishing Drives | 81 | 70 | |
| Quality Drives | 96 | 77 |
Kentucky Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 43 | 6 | |
| Line Yards | 79 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 98 | 21 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 15 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 21 | |
| Quality Drives | 87 | 29 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 60 | 86 |
| PFF Coverage | 5 | 58 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 51 | 18 |
| Middle 8 | 27 | 119 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.5 (4) | 29.9 (115) |
| Rush Rate | 54.6% (44) | 48.8% (101) |
Tennessee vs. Kentucky
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both teams have lost by multiple scores to an SEC division leader, while Kentucky beat a Florida team that Tennessee lost to.
Yet, it's the Wildcats who remain overrated, despite sitting as three-point underdogs.
Simply put, the Kentucky offense isn’t that great. If it weren’t for Davis’ outlier performance against the Gators, Kentucky would likely have lost three straight games.
Remove the Florida game, and Davis is averaging just 83.5 yards per game. That’s not going to single-handedly win games, especially against a Tennessee run defense that's sixth in Rush Success Allowed.
Leary struggles under pressure. He was sacked three and four times, respectively, in Kentucky’s last two games and was held to below 200 yards in both contests. Kentucky lost both of those games.
As previously noted, the Tennessee defense is a monster in the trenches.
Milton has been inconsistent this season, but he likely won’t be tasked with needing to score five touchdowns this week. The Wildcats will have Tennessee’s full focus, with a game against UConn in Neyland next week.
The Vols still aren’t the elite of the SEC, but they're better than Kentucky.
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