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The No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers host the No. 1 Texas Longhorns in a top-15 SEC showdown on Saturday, Sept. 26, at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
This marks the second big test for Arch Manning and the Longhorns, who downed then-No. 1 Ohio State, 24-23, two weeks ago in one of the best college football games of the young season.
With six ranked opponents on deck after this game, Texas needs to pick up a win to start its upcoming gauntlet on a high note.
On the other side, this will be Tennessee's first real test after three dominant games against Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State.
A win here would surely get the momentum going in freshman Faizon Brandon's first ranked matchup.
So, who holds the value here? We polled 10 of our college football staff members to get their take on the spread and over/under for Saturday's game.
Let's take a look at our Tennessee vs. Texas picks and college football predictions for Saturday, Sept. 26.
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Tennessee vs. Texas Spread Pick
Our Staff's Pick: Texas -5
By RoadToCFB
The weekend’s top-ranked game between No. 1 Texas and No. 14 Tennessee isn’t just divisive among fans — our Action Network staff is fairly split on the spread, with 5-of-10 voters leaning toward Texas, four leaning Tennessee and one saying this spread is fair.
Oddsmakers reopened this line Friday night ahead of Week 3 at +5.5, likely with hopes the market would help move this line toward +7 or +3.
Tennessee took a steady dose of the early movement but some resistance hit around +4. The Vols appear to be the sharp side this week at greater than +4.5.
Neyland Stadium is one of college football’s cathedrals, but Tennessee performs below average at home. Last year, three of its five losses came in Knoxville, including twice as an outright favorite against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt.
Head coach Josh Heupel’s 10-win 2024 season saw the Vols go 7-0 in Neyland, but only one win was an upset (+3), and they went 3-3 ATS against SEC foes.
Two big injuries loom large for Texas. Running back Hollywood Smothers is questionable for the game, and reports surrounding him aren’t overly positive. Star defensive end Colin Simmons is probable after leaving Week 3 in a walking boot.
Tennessee will be without starting tight end Ethan Davis for the season and safety Edrees Farooq for the foreseeable future. Running back DeSean Bishop also got banged up last week.
Ultimately it comes down to Tennessee’s ability to protect young quarterback Faizon Brandon and Heupel’s ability to keep him on time.
Texas has seen much more experienced QBs, like Julian Sayin, and got pressure against stout offensive lines like Ohio State.
Our staff believes Texas is capable of disrupting the rhythm of the offense and creating issues for the Vols offense.
Tennessee vs. Texas Over/Under Pick
Over 55 | 3 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 55 | 7 Picks |
Our Staff's Pick: Under 55
By RoadToCFB
Big games often breed unders, and our staff is aligned around the key figure of 55. Of our 10 voters, seven lean under, while three call this a coin-flip.
Last year’s trend of elite teams shortening games with a snail’s tempo in order to preserve players backfired a few times. As a result, we’ve seen those same teams increase the tempo and run with a bit of pace.
Tennessee has not been one of those teams. Last year, it ran a new play every 22.4 seconds (eighth-fastest) and, so far this year, that has dropped to 25.7 seconds (52nd).
Considering Tennessee has played with a considerable lead most of the season, tempo hasn’t been all that necessary, but it’s likely that Heupel slows the game down for his freshman signal-caller.
That will be especially true against a defense as star-studded as Texas. And with a complex Will Muschamp scheme, the Vols may continue to run the slower tempo.
On the other side, we’ve seen Arch Manning struggle when required to move through reads and shine when he’s allowed to improvise.
The secret’s out there, so expect defenses to continue to keep him inside the pocket and drop more players into coverage to force on-schedule throws.
Although Texas has improved significantly in getting a push up front in the run game, pass protection is still spotty. Manning has been pressured 24 times in his last two games, including 13 times against UTSA.
In these ranked showcase matchups, we often see teams play more conservatively. Nobody wants to make the first game-breaking mistake. Offensive coordinators poke and prod, and defenses usually play more aggressively early.
Essentially, both teams want to force the other into making a mistake.
Over the last two-plus seasons (2024-26), the under is 15-11 (57.7%) on these 7:30 ABC marquee windows, including 7-4 last season and 2-1 this year.
Between moderate tempos being run, decent pass rushes on both sides, and the tendency for teams in big games to tense up, our staff ultimately leans under at the critical total of 55.
Tennessee vs. Texas 1H Pick
1H Under 27.5 (Play to -120)
By Alex Hinton
I'm aligned with our staff in backing the under for the full game, but the first half is the angle I want to focus on.
Arch Manning is coming off a below-average performance against UTSA, going 16-of-32 for 161 yards and two touchdowns.
On top of that, the Longhorns also didn’t exactly light the world on fire on the road last season. In five true road games, they averaged 19.8 points per game. Only 31 of those 99 points came in the first half, for an average of 6.2 first-half points per game.
However, if Texas comes sluggish offensively, I expect its defense to keep it in the game.
Manning isn't the only former five-star quarterback in this game, as Tennessee has quarterback Faizon Brandon on the other side.
Through his three first starts, Brandon is probably thinking college football is easy. He's completing 64% of his passes and has nine total touchdowns without throwing an interception. The Vols are averaging 47.7 points per game with him under center.
However, two of those games came against an FCS opponent (Furman) and a G6 team (Kennesaw State), and Georgia Tech looks headed for a long season. It's certainly a far cry from the defense he'll see on Saturday afternoon.
Through its first three games, Texas has allowed 30 points in the first half, 20 of which came against Ohio State. The Buckeyes have firepower against anyone, but in that game, they were gifted 10 points off Texas turnovers in the first half.
Even if turnovers flare up again for Texas, its defense ranks 15th in Points Per Opportunity allowed. I expect the defenses, particularly the Longhorns’, to control the action in the first half in Knoxville.
Tennessee vs. Texas Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -205 |
