Texas vs. Oklahoma State Predictions, Best Bets: Our Staff’s Top Picks for Saturday’s Over/Under & Spread
Getty Images. Design by Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network. Pictured (left to right): Oklahoma State’s Alan Bowman and Ollie Gordon II. Texas’ Xavier Worthy and Quinn Ewers.
- Texas now enters its Big 12 Championship matchup against Oklahoma State as a -15 favorite with an over/under of 56.6.
- Our staff came together to find a consensus pick for this Texas vs. Oklahoma State spread and over/under.
- Check out our staff's best bets for the Big 12 Championship below.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State Odds
By Cody Goggin
As with many traditional college football conferences, this is the last year of the Big 12 as we know it.
Oklahoma State and Texas will face off in Arlington this weekend as the Longhorns play their last game as conference members.
The conference title will not be the only thing on the line this weekend. Texas ranks seventh in the latest College Football Playoff poll.
For the 'Horns to jump into the four-team field, they will need plenty of help from other teams, but they also need a big performance on Saturday.
With the addition of four new schools to the Big 12 this season, this was the first time in years that Texas and Oklahoma State didn't face off during the regular season. This leaves us without a data point to see how these schools may match up, but it could also allow us to find an edge.
Our staff was able to come to a consensus when polled on this game. We believe that Texas covers the 14.5-point spread and that this game will fly over the total.
Let’s look under the hood to see the basis for this reasoning and why our staff leans heavily in this direction.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State Spread
By Cody Goggin
Our staff is taking Texas to cover a two-touchdown spread in a final push toward the College Football Playoff.
Last week, we saw a glimpse of what Texas was capable of. The Longhorns dominated Texas Tech 57-7, overwhelming the Red Raiders in the trenches.
It's easy to see why our staff likes the Over. The Longhorns' front seven is among the nation's most talented units. If your offensive line can't block, your chances of winning are minimal.
Texas ranks seventh nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed, ninth in Rush PPA allowed and sixth in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
You can maybe attack Texas through the air. The Horns are 28th in Pass Success Rate and Pass PPA allowed, and 81st in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
Unfortunately for Oklahoma State, the Pokes probably can't take advantage. They rank 118th in Pass Explosiveness and 86th in Pass PPA this year.
This season started poorly for Oklahoma State, as the offense stalled early, resulting in a damning loss to South Alabama. The Pokes have been better offensively since moving to Alan Bowman as the starting quarterback, but outside of a home upset over Oklahoma, most of their success has been against the bottom of the Big 12.
Texas has the 10th-ranked defense by SP+. Oklahoma State has only faced three defenses ranked in the top 50 this season, failing to crack 30 points in any of those games.
Texas’ offense looks OK by the metrics, as they rank 43rd in Success Rate and eighth in SP+. It's probably better than these overall Success Rate numbers, as it played a couple of games without quarterback Quinn Ewers.
Oklahoma State’s defense is ranked 66th by SP+, 36th in Success Rate allowed, and 99th in Finishing Drives allowed. The Pokes have allowed far too many big plays this year, ranking 129th in Explosiveness allowed.
This is a big number to lay with a favorite in a conference championship game, but our staff thinks the Horns are too good not to cover.
Lay the points with Texas here, as it's the much more talented team and will be motivated to make one last push for the College Football Playoff.
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Texas vs. Oklahoma State Over/Under
Points should be easy to come by in this Big 12 duel, especially considering Texas is looking to impress the College Football Playoff committee.
Texas must win and win big while hoping for some love from the voters.
Fortunately for the Longhorns, they boast the 22nd-ranked scoring offense in the nation and third in the Big 12, averaging 35.1 points per game.
Behind quarterback Quinn Ewers, Texas averages 460.4 yards of offense per game. Ewers has accounted for 2,709 passing yards with an impressive 69.8% completion rate, 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions.
In a statement victory against Alabama, Ewers was exceptional, passing for 349 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Ewers and the Longhorns should shred Oklahoma State. The Pokes' defense isn't that good, especially against the pass, ranking 13th in the Big 12 in total defense (42.3 YPG allowed) and eighth in scoring defense (27.3 PPG allowed).
They've been able to offset the weak defense with their offense. The Cowboys are averaging over 30 points per game this year behind Bowman, who's evolved in the offense since becoming the starter.
Bowman's been boom-or-bust this year, but we know Mike Gundy will allow him to sling it around on Saturday. He should be able to find the endzone against a relatively weak Texas pass defense — the 'Horns rank 95th nationally in total pass defense, allowing 240.1 passing yards per game.
Our Action Network PRO model projects this total at 58.3, giving us a 5.3% edge on the over. Our staff strongly leans toward the over, reflecting the math behind our internal models.
We recommend taking the Over at 55 or better with a hard limit at 56.
As always, it's worth tuning in for the first quarter to see if the live markets offer a better entry point. If the live total drops below 50 in the first half of the first quarter, I'd take a live position on the 0ver.
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More Ways to Bet Texas vs. Oklahoma State
Brennan Presley has been on a heater over the past two weeks. He's averaging six receptions and 60 receiving yards per game this year, but he racked up 280 yards on 24 receptions against Houston and BYU.
In those two contests, Bowman targeted Presley 33 times, with Brennan becoming Alan's safety outlet.
What's the reason behind the surge in output?
It's simple. The Cowboys needed to crawl out of second-half holes in Oklahoma State's past two games. And that's likely to happen again this weekend, given the Pokes are two-touchdown 'dogs.
Running back Ollie Gordon II is Oklahoma State's go-to player under ideal circumstances, but the Pokes can ill afford to run the ball and let the clock drain in a comeback bid.
Texas, which will likely be loading the box to neutralize Gordon, also doesn't have a great pass defense. The Horns are 10th in the Big 12 in total passing defense, allowing over 240 passing yards per game.
Presley has cleared this total by at least 25 yards in three of his last four games. He and Bowman are clicking to end the season.
While it probably won’t be a good day for the Cowboys, Presley is poised to put up big numbers for a third consecutive game.