The Texas State Bobcats take on the Texas Longhorns in Austin, Texas. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Texas is favored by -29.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -10000. The total is set at 59.5 points.
Here’s my Texas State vs. Texas predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 5, 2026.
Texas State vs Texas Prediction
- Texas State vs. Texas Pick: Over 59.5 (Play to 62.5)
My Texas vs. Texas State best bet is on the over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas State vs Texas Odds
| Texas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+29.5 -105 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +2200 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-29.5 -115 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
- Texas State vs Texas point spread: Texas State +29.5 (-105), Texas -29.5 (-115)
- Texas State vs Texas over/under: 59.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Texas State vs Texas moneyline: Texas State +2220, Texas -10000
Texas State vs Texas Preview
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview: High-Powered Offense
After 13 years in the Sun Belt, Texas State will join a revamped Pac-12.
While the conference affiliation may change, its high-powered offense will not. Texas State finished 15th in offensive SP+ last season and will return 70% of its production, so it projects to finish in the top 30 once again.
Leading that group is quarterback Brad Jackson, who will be the second-biggest name in this game at quarterback, but his production takes a backseat to very few.
Last season, he completed 71.3% of his passes, threw for 3,224 yards and ran for 744 yards while accounting for 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions, finishing with the highest QBR of any returning Group of Six quarterback.
While there is some turnover in the backfield, Jackson does return his top two targets in Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. They both went over 1,000 yards last season and combined for 14 touchdowns.
Meanwhile, their interior offensive line should be a strength, which should pay dividends as they work on their new running backs.
Last season, the Bobcats were 6-0 when recording 24 first downs, and they scored 30 points in 11 of 13 games. Unfortunately for them, they finished 117th in defensive SP+, and their defense both prevented a CFP bid and led to some heartbreaking losses.
I would not expect many stops this week, but they will rely on a mix of JUCO and transfer portal additions. One intriguing name is defensive tackle Phillip Bradford, who stands 6-foot-6, 308 pounds, and had 15.5 tackles for loss at McNeese State last season.
Since joining the FBS in 2012, Texas State is 1-12 against power-conference opponents. Head coach G.J. Kinne engineered that lone victory as it knocked off Baylor in 2023.
Kinne is also responsible for three of the program's four winning seasons at the FBS level, and his offenses give his teams a chance against anyone.
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview: Banking on Manning
Arch Manning entered last season with arguably the highest expectations of any first-time starter.
While a rocky start had some proclaiming him to be a bust already, they likely missed that he closed last season with nearly 2,300 total yards, 20 touchdowns and two interceptions in his last eight games. The Longhorns went 7-1 in that span and nearly snuck in the CFP as a three-loss team.
Expectations are high in Austin again, as this time, the Longhorns are the No. 5 team in the preseason AP Top 25 as opposed to No. 1 last season. Manning is once again a Heisman frontrunner and projected top-five NFL draft pick.
After dealing with last season's adversity, he may be ready to deliver with the help of a strong supporting cast.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian was aggressive in the portal and brought in 22 players that make up the nation's No. 3 transfer class, per 247Sports.
Running backs Raleek Brown (Arizona State) and Hollywood Smothers (NC State) both ran for over 900 yards last season and should make up one of the nation's top tandems this season.
Highly touted freshman Derrek Cooper figures to get his share of carries as well.
However, the headliner of the Longhorns' portal was Auburn transfer Cam Coleman, a former five-star recruit out of high school. Poor quarterback play limited Coleman's production at Auburn, but he still tallied 93 receptions for 1,306 yards and 13 touchdowns in two seasons.
He is expected to lead a deep group of Longhorns' pass catchers that includes Ryan Wingo, Emmett Mosley V, Kaliq Lockett and Jermaine Bishop Jr.
To reach their lofty goals, the Longhorns will need to see improvement from an offensive line that returns three starters. They also added tackle Melvin Siani (Wake Forest) and guard Laurence Seymore III (Western Kentucky) in the portal class.
However, the unit was already dealt a blow as tackle Trevor Goosby suffered a bone bruise in his left knee. He returned to practice this week, but with Ohio State on deck, it would not be a surprise if he was held out for the season opener.
Linebacker Rasheem Biles (Pittsburgh) and defensive tackle Ian Geffrard (Arkansas) were the Longhorns' top portal additions defensively. They add to a defense that ranked 18th in defensive SP+ last season and is loaded with star power.
Leading the way is defensive end Colin Simmons, who had 12 sacks last year. The former five-star is among four Longhorns — along with Manning, Coleman and Goosby — who could hear their names called in the first round of next spring's NFL draft.
Texas State vs Texas Pick, Betting Analysis
Last season, Texas State outscored opponents 98-58 in the first quarter. While most of them did not have a defense on Texas' level, the Bobcats' tempo and scheme can catch opponents off guard, which may lead to an unexpected score early off the Longhorns' first stringers.
Texas is the team the books expect to do most of the scoring, as over-four-touchdown favorites with a 44.5-point team total.
While Sarkisian may not want to show too much before the Buckeyes game, Manning — and his mix of returning and new weapons — should have their way with the Bobcats' defense.
The Longhorns have scored over 50 points in four of their six last games against G6 opponents. If they go over their team total, as I suspect, the Bobcats will contribute enough offense to get this game in the 60s.
Pick: Over 59.5 (-110, FanDuel | Play to 62.5)
