The Tulane Green Wave take on the Memphis Tigers in Memphis, Tennessee. Kickoff is set for 9:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.
Memphis is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. The total is set at 54 points.
Here’s my Tulane vs. Memphis prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 7, 2025.
Tulane vs Memphis Prediction
- Tulane vs. Memphis Pick: Under 54 (-110, bet365)
My Memphis vs. Tulane best bet is on the Under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Tulane vs Memphis Odds
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- Tulane vs Memphis point spread: Memphis -3.5 (-110 ), Tulane +3.5 (-110)
- Tulane vs Memphis over/under: 54 (-110o / -110u)
- Tulane vs Memphis moneyline: Tulane +145, Memphis -170
Tulane vs Memphis Pick
This matchup presents a strong opportunity to play the under, and the reasoning goes deeper than a casual bettor's perspective of “two good teams, I bet big number under.”
Tulane’s offense has been one of the most misleading units in the American.
The Green Wave have piled up yardage, primarily through methodical drives, turnover luck, and favorable field position. Still, the production hasn’t consistently translated — neither in the red zone, nor on third downs, nor on the scoreboard.
They rank inside the top 20 nationally in available yards percentage, yet sit far lower in the country in actual scoring — not because they can’t move the ball, but because they stall, settle, and leave points behind. Their early-down efficiency and sub-50% third-down success rate tell the same story that this offense has overperformed in yardage, not in points.
That matters in a betting market shaped more by perception than by reality. This offense is highly overrated, and we already saw a glimpse of regression last week against UTSA.
Memphis, meanwhile, has the exact type of offensive profile that quietly favors lower-scoring contests. Even when healthy, the Tigers prefer to run the ball.
They rank in the top five nationally in Rushing EPA, while Tulane’s rush defense is closer to mediocre. That advantage encourages Memphis to run first and run often, which shortens the game and limits total possessions.
Suppose quarterback Brendon Lewis is ruled out or even limited, which is absolutely on the table given his lower-body injury last week. In that case, Memphis will lean into that identity even more. Without Lewis, we will see fewer chunk plays, fewer designed rollouts, fewer shots downfield, and more clock-bleeding drives.
What's important to note is that even if Lewis does play, the under still has a strong chance of cashing. His presence raises the ceiling slightly, but not enough to swing Memphis into a full shootout mode, especially against a Tulane defense that, while bendable, rarely breaks in the red zone.
When you combine Memphis’ ball-control style, Tulane’s statistical inflation, and both teams’ inconsistency converting drives into touchdowns, the math starts pulling the total downward.
The strengths of each team work against offensive explosiveness, and I would be surprised to see either team string together nonstop explosive plays.
Whether Lewis plays or not, all signs still point to fewer total possessions than the market is pricing in, and fewer possessions mean fewer scoring opportunities.
Not actual scoring consistency, and Memphis’ style suppresses pace more than people realize. Add in Tulane missing some offensive pieces and the possibility that Memphis doesn’t have its complete playbook available if Lewis isn’t 100%, and the market has already begun to steam the number down.
The most realistic game script is that both teams will be bleeding clock, and it is not a given that they will be able to capitalize in the red zone. I love the under here, and I would consider backing Tulane with the points if Lewis is officially ruled out.
Pick: Under 54 (-110, bet365)
