The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, Missouri, on Thursday, Sept. 3. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
Missouri is favored by -54.5 points on the spread, with the over/under set at 60.5 total points.
Here’s my UAPB vs. Missouri prediction and college football picks for Thursday, September 3.
UAPB vs Missouri Prediction
- UAPB vs. Missouri Pick: Over 60.5 (Play to 61.5)
My Missouri vs. UAPB best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UAPB vs Missouri Odds
| AR-Pine Bluff Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+54.5 -115 | 60.5 -115o / -105u | |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-54.5 -105 | 60.5 -115o / -105u | |
- UAPB vs Missouri point spread: Missouri -54.5 (-105), UAPB +54.5 (-115)
- UAPB vs Missouri over/under: 60.5 (-115o / -105u)
UAPB vs Missouri NCAAF Preview
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions Betting Preview
Life isn't easy in Pine Bluff, Arkansas.
The last time Arkansas-Pine Bluff went .500 or better in a complete season was 2019, and since then it's been on a 14-43 run. Also during that time, UAPB suffered 67-7 and 70-0 losses to FBS foes (Texas Tech and Arkansas, respectively), averaging a 52.6-point margin.
To find UAPB's last win against a team that finished with a winning record, you must go back to November 2022. Typically, UAPB secures wins against non-Division I, NAIA or non-NCAA foes and then springs an upset on a two- or three-win SWAC opponent.
The offense was dreadful last year. Seven times the Golden Lions failed to score 20 points (in nine games against Division I foes).
It used a multi-QB approach with a runner and a passer, and only running back Jaylen Jennings (906 yards, 11 touchdowns) could be considered a bright spot. Jennings rushed for 65 yards in a 35-15 win over D-II Morehouse College.
Boise State transfer receiver Demetric Whitlock Jr. accounted for 160 of the team's 232 yards through the air — a nice start for the 6-foot junior but almost certainly an unsustainable chunk of the production against quality competition.
Against FBS foes, this team's defensive talent just can't keep up. It was gashed for 51 points by 6-5 Texas Southern last year (the team's high-water mark by far against D-I opponents) and 41 to 3-9 Central Missouri.
As mentioned, against SEC competition, UAPB is consistently blown out of the venue by whatever string its opponent trots out. Players are outclassed and outmanned to comical proportions.
Whitlock and running back Jalen Williams, the UAPB back who took one of his two rushes 70 yards to the house, could make for an interesting duo of individual players.
But this offense doesn't ask its QB to do much, as highlighted by Garrison Davis' 15 pass attempts last week.
Missouri Tigers Betting Preview
Missouri anxiously awaits the return of superstar running back Ahmad Hardy, who's still on the mend from a gunshot wound suffered this offseason.
Hardy won't play this week (why should he?), but head coach Eliah Drinkwitz gave an update on Aug. 23 saying that Hardy no longer has a timetable for his return. Ominous words out of Columbia.
Behind him is Jamal Roberts, who rushed for over 750 yards behind Hardy last year, and Xai'Shaun Edwards, who rushed for over 1,000 yards at Houston Christian.
This duo runs behind the top offensive line in the SEC, per Phil Steele, and the sixth-best unit in the country.
New offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey is a good fit after conducting a run-first approach at Michigan. I anticipate a heavy run approach this season, especially with a less proven receiving corps than in recent years.
Austin Simmons takes the reins at quarterback, transferring in after getting replaced at Ole Miss. Simmons wasn't excellent in Oxford, and many question whether or not he's an upgrade over the now-Virginia QB Beau Pribula.
Fortunately for Mizzou, Simmons has a warm-up week before he has to turn any heads.
Though the Tigers took a step back after losing Blake Baker to LSU, they finished with a top-30 mark in Points Per Drive allowed under Corey Batoon last year.
But they have to do without top pass-rusher Damon Wilson II (Miami) and top tackler Josiah Trotter. Only two Mizzou defenders return this season, and seven of the eight players from the secondary depart.
The Tigers have until Sept. 26 to figure out the defense, as UAPB, Kansas, and Troy don't pose much of a stressor to begin the year.
UAPB vs Missouri Pick, Betting Analysis
You won't find a bigger delta between roster talent anywhere in Division I this weekend. Missouri will work every available back, and the list of talented rushers runs deep.
Leaning into the run game isn't exactly a mercy play against UAPB's defense, which is void of Division I-level talent.
Saturday is going to be hot in Columbia, but Mizzou has far more options than UAPB for rotators — that heat will affect the Golden Lions more than the Tigers.
Mizzou has a history of trouncing helpless opponents. Last year, it piled on 61 points against Central Arkansas and, in 2024, beat Murray State, 51-0, to cover a -50 spread. UAPB sits multiple touchdowns behind either of those teams in that iteration.
The spread opened 58.5 but has climbed, likely for the same reason this pick is being made.
Missouri can cover most, if not all, of this point total on its own.
However, Whitlock is a decent player, and UAPB could steal a touchdown, as it did last year against Texas Tech. Should it score one time, Mizzou will provide the rest.
Odds are, UAPB doesn't need to provide the touchdown. This is an over play as long as it stays below the key figure of 62.
Pick: Over 60.5 (Play to 61.5)
UAPB vs Missouri Betting Trends
