The Utah State Aggies take on the Fresno State Bulldogs in Fresno, California, on Saturday, Nov. 22. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Fresno State is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -148. Utah State, meanwhile, enters as a +3 underdog and is +124 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 50.5 total points.
Here’s my Utah State vs. Fresno State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
Utah State vs Fresno State Prediction
- Utah State vs. Fresno State Pick: Utah State +3
My Fresno State vs. Utah State best bet is on the Aggies to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Utah State vs Fresno State Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +124 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -148 |
- Utah State vs Fresno State Spread: Fresno State -3, Utah State +3
- Utah State vs Fresno State Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- Utah State vs Fresno State Moneyline: Utah State ML +124, Fresno State ML -148
Utah State vs Fresno State College Football Betting Preview
Saturday's Utah State vs. Fresno State Mountain West game fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database.
Called "Mature Market Moves," this is a college football system that capitalizes on the influence of sharp money when it differs meaningfully from public betting patterns.
In the regular season, when the spread falls between 1-6 points, these games are often competitive and decided by narrow margins, where line efficiency is critical.
By isolating matchups where the percentage of money wagered is significantly higher than the percentage of tickets, the system highlights situations where larger, more informed bets are backing one side, while casual bettors are spread differently.
Limiting the sample to Game 5 and later ensures teams have established trends and reliable data for sharper action to target.
This combination of close spreads, mature markets and a clear split between sharp money and public opinion creates an edge where following the money side outperforms expectations.
This system boasts an all-time record of 403-295-11, good for a winning percentage of 57.7% and an ROI of 11%.
Utah State vs Fresno State Pick, Betting Analysis
Coming out of the bye week four weeks ago, Fresno State made a quarterback change, replacing EJ Warner with Carson Conklin. To put it lightly, he has struggled.
Conklin has yet to complete half of his passes in any of his three games against FBS opponents, and he has eclipsed 100 yards only once. He has thrown more interceptions (2) than touchdowns (1), and he boasts a QBR of 17.6.
If Utah State plays to its full potential, it's going to be tough for Fresno to keep up.
The Aggies rank second in the Mountain West in scoring offense (32.9 points per game) and fourth in total offense (426.1 yards per game). Plus, the return of quarterback Bryson Barnes will only help this unit.
Instead of taking our chances and backing Conklin and the Bulldogs, we're going to take the better offense backed by a historically profitable betting system.
Pick: Utah State +3
