The Vanderbilt Commodores take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, AL. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. The total is set at 55.5 points.
Here are my Vanderbilt vs. Alabama predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama Prediction
- Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Pick: Over 55.5
My Alabama vs. Vanderbilt best bet is on the over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama Odds
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
- Vanderbilt vs Alabama point spread: Vanderbilt +10.5
- Vanderbilt vs Alabama over/under: 55.5 points
- Vanderbilt vs Alabama moneyline: Vanderbilt +325, Alabama -425
Vanderbilt vs Alabama Preview
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview: Improved Team All-Around
When will people realize this is a different Vanderbilt team? After posting its first seven-win season since 2013, the Commodores had a preseason win total of just 4.5.
Well, they hit that before October.
Vanderbilt is 4-1 against the spread and firmly in the middle of a wide-open SEC title race.
Quarterback Diego Pavia is more than a great story and a fun sound bite. He's a legitimately very good quarterback. In his second season in Nashville, Pavia leads the SEC with 13 touchdown passes with just three interceptions.
He's increased his passing output and still leads the Commodores in rushing with 58.5 yards per game.
Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young have excelled as his running mates in the backfield for a team that ranks second in the country in Success Rate. Vandy has scored 18 rushing touchdowns on the year.
Tight end Eli Stowers has been Pavia’s roommate going back to their New Mexico State days, and he's Pavia’s favorite target. He has 22 catches on the year. Tre Richardson and Junior Sherrill are the top targets on the outside, with Sherrill already catching five touchdown passes.
On defense, Vanderbilt has done a great job as well, especially against the run. The Dores are allowing just 3.0 yards per carry and have yet to allow more than 120 yards on the ground in a game. Opponents have just two rushing scores all year.
Vanderbilt has created a ton of havoc on defense, already forcing nine turnovers. Miles Capers has been a game wrecker up front, leading the SEC with eight tackles for loss. Capers, along with Khordae Sydnor, Nick Rinaldi and Linus Zunk, have done a great job getting into the opponents’ backfield.
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview: Struggling Defense
Alabama lost a Week 1 stunner at Florida State but has rebounded for three straight wins, including a massive victory on the road at Georgia last week.
The Crimson Tide are back in the top 10 of the AP Poll and is currently the favorite to win the SEC. However, they face the same letdown spot that bit them last year — against Vanderbilt following the big Georgia win.
Last week marked a breakout game for quarterback Ty Simpson, establishing himself as perhaps the best quarterback in the SEC.
After waiting his turn for four years, Simpson stumbled out of the gates as QB1, but he's been brilliant ever since. He's thrown 11 touchdown passes with no interceptions and is completing 69% of his passes.
He's displayed pinpoint accuracy, getting the ball down the field to his loaded wide receiver room. Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton lead one of the most talented receiver groups in the country. This bunch is a matchup nightmare for defenses.
The passing game has had to be great because Alabama can't run the ball at all. The Tide averages just 122 rushing yards per game this season, and their leading rusher has just 150 total rushing yards.
They did get last year’s leading rusher — Jam Miller — back from injury last week, so hopefully that will help improve things.
Alabama was expected to field the best defense in the country after a dominant showing last season and a ton of returning production. Kane Wommack’s unit ranked fourth in Finishing Drives Allowed and was second in the country in tackling.
Those numbers have slipped off quite a bit through the first four weeks of the season. The Tide ranks 129th in the country at Finishing Drives Allowed, a stunning position for the talent on this team.
They've allowed only six opponent trips to the red zone this season, but five of them resulted in touchdowns.
This defense has slipped to 62nd in tackling and has really struggled to get pressure on the quarterback. They're allowing way too many big plays, and both Florida State and Georgia were able to run the ball all over the Tide.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama Pick, Betting Analysis
I don’t want to be the guy who discredits a team because of its schedule. Vanderbilt is legitimately a very good team. But the Dores also have yet to play a top-40 quality team this season. They haven't faced a single offense with a pulse.
The offense is very effective, and Pavia runs this system to perfection. The rushing attack is dominant with Pavia and Alexander, and Pavia is having the best passing season of his career.
Alabama has struggled to prevent explosives this season, especially through the air. Vanderbilt ranks 15th in Passing Explosiveness this season and should be able to pick up big plays.
The Crimson Tide have also really struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks over the past two seasons. Pavia and Jackson Arnold got them last season, and Thomas Castellanos ran all over them in the season opener this year.
Vanderbilt can pick up explosives here while Pavia does enough with his arm and legs to move the ball. Also, the Alabama defense hasn't been able to keep the ball out of the end zone.
On the other hand, this Alabama offense is really rounding into form, and Simpson has been fantastic. Simpson has 11 touchdown passes with no interceptions and leads an offense that's efficient and explosive. Both Williams and Bernard had catches for over 45 yards against Vanderbilt last year.
The Commodores' strength is their run defense, but Alabama hasn’t run the ball well anyway. The Vandy pass defense is just 69th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 84th in tackling.
These might be the two best quarterbacks in the SEC going head-to-head against two defenses that have had issues tackling and preventing Finishing Drives. This game turned into a wild shootout last season, and I expect to see points again on Saturday.
Pick: Over 55.5 (Play to 57.5)
