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Vanderbilt vs LSU Picks, Odds, Parlay for College Football Week 8 — Saturday, October 18

Vanderbilt vs LSU Picks, Odds, Parlay for College Football Week 8 — Saturday, October 18 article feature image
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Credit: Imagn Images. Pictured: LSU Tigers QB Garrett Nussmeier.

The Vanderbilt Commodores host the LSU Tigers on Saturday, with the Commodores surprisingly sitting as 2.5-point favorites.

I don't trust Vanderbilt as a favorite, and I believe LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier could carve up the Vandy defense in a road win.

With that game script in mind, I built a same-game parlay that pays out at over 10-1.

Come along for the ride on my Vanderbilt vs LSU picks and NCAAF parlay for Saturday, October 18.


Vanderbilt vs. LSU Picks, Predictions, Same Game Parlay

  • LSU ML
  • Garrett Nussmeier 300+ Passing Yards
  • Diego Pavia 50+ Rushing Yards

Parlay Odds: +1050 (bet365)

Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.


Vanderbilt vs. LSU Odds

LSU Logo
Saturday, Oct 18
12 p.m. ET
ABC
Vanderbilt Logo
LSU Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+2.5
-110
49
-110o / -110u
+115
Vanderbilt Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-2.5
-110
49
-110o / -110u
-135
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.
bet365 Logo
Playbook

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Moneyline Pick: LSU ML

As much as I’d love to back Diego Pavia and the ever-entertaining Vanderbilt Commodores, I refuse to bet them as a favorite.

The Commodores are 9-3 ATS as an underdog with Pavia under center, but they’re 1-3 ATS as a favorite, with an outright loss to Georgia State sprinkled in there.

I trust Vandy to muck it up with most elite SEC teams when catching a ton of points. I don’t trust them outright to win a game against a top-tier SEC opponent — the Commodores are still at a pretty intense talent disadvantage in most conference games.

Vanderbilt’s numbers are stellar this season — the Commodores rank 12th nationally in Net EPA per Play (+0.12). However, I think their numbers have been severely inflated by massive wins over Charleston Southern (45-3), Virginia Tech (44-20), South Carolina (31-7 after LaNorris Sellers went down in the first half), Georgia State (70-21), and Utah State (55-35).

Vandy finally played a truly elite team last time out, losing by 16 to Alabama two weeks ago.

The ‘Dores were out-gained by over 150 yards. Aside from Sedrick Alexander’s 65-yard touchdown run halfway through the first quarter, Pavia and company scored seven points on 260 yards of offense with a 39% Success Rate (37th percentile), including a 33% Rush Success Rate.

Alabama’s defense is elite, but LSU’s defense is borderline-elite.

The Tigers rank 20th nationally in Success Rate allowed (36%). They’re a tad weak on the defensive line, but they’re excellent in the second level behind Harold Perkins and Whit Wheeks, and they’ve held up well on the back end, ranking eighth nationally in PFF’s Coverage grades.

LSU’s defense has taken a big step in Blake Baker’s second season, holding Clemson to 10 points, Florida to 10, Ole Miss to 24, and South Carolina to 10.

The Tigers can do the same to Vanderbilt. I suspect the Commodores struggle to score on Saturday.

On the other side of the ball, Vanderbilt boasts an elite run defense (-0.16 EPA per Rush allowed, 13th nationally), but that might not matter given LSU can’t run the ball (-0.10 EPA per Rush, 116th).

Instead, I’m banking on Garrett Nussmeier carving up a very questionable Vanderbilt secondary (more on that later) en route to a conference road win.

Header First Logo

LSU Player Prop: Garrett Nussmeier 300+ Passing Yards

Vanderbilt ranks 111th nationally in EPA per Pass allowed. While it ranks 47th on the season in PFF’s Coverage grades, the ‘Dores have put up back-to-back stinkers against Utah State (58.4 Coverage grade) and Alabama (62.8 Coverage grade).

I don’t mind the cornerback room, but I really don’t trust the safeties.

Regardless, in a big first test against Alabama, CJ Heard allowed four receptions on four targets for 71 yards. Fellow coverage guys Randon Fontenette and Dontae Carter allowed four receptions on six targets for 60 yards. Cornerback Martel Hight was burned for 102 yards on three targets across five receptions, with Ryan Williams picking up a 54-yard pass on him and Isaiah Horton picking up a 35-yarder.

Altogether, Vanderbilt allowed Ty Simpson to throw for a whopping 340 yards across 31 attempts.

Nussmeier can do something similar this week.

Nuss has yet to throw for 300 this season, but he reached the 300-yard mark eight times last season, including a 332-yard performance (28-for-37 passing, 76% completion, nine YPA) against the Commodores in Week 13.

I expect him to throw the ball a million times on Saturday, given that LSU likely struggles to establish the run. Between that volume and Vandy’s lackluster coverage unit, I’m banking on Nussmeier finally crashing through the 300-yard mark in 2025.

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Vanderbilt Player Prop: Diego Pavia 50+ Rushing Yards

Betting on Pavia’s rushing yards makes this an inversely correlated parlay. It’s tough to bank on the Commodores rushing the ball much if I also expect them to be playing in a trailing game script.

However, Pavia played in a game with a trailing script against Alabama and still managed 58 rushing yards on 12 attempts. He also played in a trailing game script against LSU last season and finished with 45 rushing yards on just six attempts.

As mentioned, LSU is a tad weak on the defensive line, ranking outside the top 50 nationally in Defensive Line Yards (2.8) and Stuff Rate (19%). Meanwhile, Vandy ranks in the top 15 nationally in Offensive Line Yards (3.5) and in the top 30 in Stuff Rate Allowed (15%).

The Commodores will still run plenty of their triple-option-adjacent offense. I think Pavia will find some holes and accumulate some yards on the ground, even if it comes early when the game is still close.

I also don’t trust LSU’s defense against mobile quarterbacks. A few weeks ago, Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss scrambled all over the Tigers for 71 yards on 14 carries.

Check out this read-option move from that game:

I suspect Pavia can do much of the same on Saturday, even in a losing effort.

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About the Author

Tanner McGrath covers college basketball, college football and Major League Baseball at Action Network. He is a contributor to Payoff Pitch, Action Network’s Major League Baseball betting podcast. He's been working in the space for more than five years with past journalism experience in Canadian collegiate sports, finance and economics. He has an obsession with America East basketball, betting the Miami Marlins and sweating out home underdogs.

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