Vanderbilt vs South Carolina Odds & Pick: Target Saturday’s Over/Under
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs South Carolina Gamecocks Odds
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
It will be a battle of the SEC cellar dwellers when Vanderbilt travels to Columbia, South Carolina.
The Commodores are 2-8, while the Gamecocks are 3-6.
This is a standard year for Vandy, but it's a disaster for Shane Beamer's program, which was trying to piece together consecutive winning seasons.
A bright spot for South Carolina? It's 3-1 at Williams-Brice Stadium this season. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is 0-4 on the road.
On paper, all signs point to the Gamecocks using this as a get-right game and getting back on track, but can the Commodores pull off the upset and end their 14-year losing streak?
For a terrible team, Vanderbilt has an exciting offense.
The Commodores rank 121st in Success Rate and 132nd in HavocAallowed but also check in at eighth in Explosiveness and 43rd in Points per Opportunity.
They're taking advantage of the few opportunities they're producing, and they can erupt in any game. But their efficiency numbers are still too poor, and I don't see them exploiting any competent defense.
The good news for Vandy is that South Carolina's pass defense isn't competent.
The Gamecocks have one of the worst pass defense units in the country, ranking 122nd in EPA per Dropback allowed and Pass Success Rate allowed. South Carolina is also vulnerable to giving up big plays, ranking 78th in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
If there were a game where Vanderbilt could erupt, this is it.
While Vandy takes advantage of opportunities on offense, it lets opponents to do the same, ranking 82nd nationally in Points per Opportunity allowed. And it also allows opponents to erupt in any game, ranking 112th in Explosiveness allowed.
It could be a long day for this defense, and I think they will see the Gamecocks celebrating in the end zone quite a bit.
As mentioned, South Carolina is having a disappointing season, especially considering it is likely Spencer Rattler's last season in college after what seems like a decade.
Rattler has not done much this year to raise his draft stock, but he has been a serviceable college quarterback. He's currently rocking a 77 Pro Football Focus offensive grade (almost exactly average), and the Gamecocks passing game has been fine, ranking 59th in Pass Success Rate and 43rd in Pass Explosiveness.
This will play exceptionally well against a Vanderbilt Defense that struggles with, well, everything.
Vandy's pass defense has been indigent, ranking 119th in Pass Success Rate Allowed and 113th in Pass EPA Allowed.
The big problem is that opposing quarterbacks feel comfortable around the Commodores, as they rank 93rd in Havoc generated.
There's a genuine chance Rattler picks this Commodores defense apart on Saturday. He has always been at his best when he feels comfortable in the pocket, with plenty of escape routes to create. This is a solid opportunity for him to show off for NFL scouts.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Vanderbilt and South Carolina match up statistically:
Vanderbilt Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 124 | 89 | |
| Line Yards | 102 | 55 | |
| Pass Success | 108 | 122 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 121 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 51 | |
| Quality Drives | 93 | 116 |
South Carolina Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 117 | 60 | |
| Line Yards | 119 | 78 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 113 | |
| Havoc | 118 | 96 | |
| Finishing Drives | 67 | 82 | |
| Quality Drives | 97 | 128 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 66 | 33 |
| PFF Coverage | 119 | 120 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 17 | 87 |
| Middle 8 | 126 | 103 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.4 (75) | 25.6 (44) |
| Rush Rate | 45.6% (118) | 47.6% (120) |
Vanderbilt vs South Carolina
Pick, Prediction
I bet the under in Vandy's game last week, but I don't think its defense is good enough to keep this game under. While the number is higher than last week's Auburn game, South Carolina fields a better offense and a worse defense.
If Vandy scores 17 or more, this over will look great.
Pick: Over 58 (-110)
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