The Vanderbilt Commodores take on the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville, Tennessee. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. EST on ESPN.
Tennessee is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 65.5 points.
Here’s my Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 29, 2025.
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Prediction
- Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee Pick: Vanderbilt +2.5 or Better
My Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt best bet is on the Commodores to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Odds
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
- Vanderbilt vs Tennessee point spread: Tennessee -2.5 (-120), Vanderbilt +2.5 (-100)
- Vanderbilt vs Tennessee over/under: 65.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Vanderbilt vs Tennessee moneyline: Vanderbilt +125, Tennessee -150
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Preview
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview: Can Pavia and Co. Finish the Job?
I think it's fair to say that this is the biggest game in Vanderbilt football history.
Even if a College Football Playoff berth remains unlikely, the Commodores have a chance to finish the season 10-2, which would be the first 10-win season in program history.
To have the chance to do it against their in-state rival is just icing on the cake.
Quarterback Diego Pavia has been the heart and soul of this team and is having a Heisman-caliber season. While he might not be the “best” player in the country, you can make a strong argument that he is the most valuable player to his team.
Pavia leads the SEC with 26 touchdown passes and has added 661 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground.
We know Pavia is dangerous with his legs, but this passing attack has taken a massive step forward.
Pavia ranks second nationally in EPA per dropback. He leads the SEC in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and quarterback rating. He enters this game red hot, throwing 11 touchdown passes across the past three weeks.
Tight end Eli Stowers has been Pavia’s favorite target dating back to their New Mexico State days. Still, receivers Junior Sherrill and Tre Richardson have emerged to really stretch this offense down the field and keep teams from stacking the box.
The passing attack has allowed this running game to open even more.
Pavia has run the ball less but has gone from 4.2 yards per carry to 5.0 yards. Sedrick Alexander has also seen his rushing average go from 3.6 yards per carry to 4.8 yards per attempt as teams have to respect the pass more. Makhilyn Young has also mixed in as the home run threat out of the backfield.
Vanderbilt’s defense hasn’t been elite, but it has been strong enough to get the job done.
The strength for Vandy has been against the run, where it ranks in the top 40 nationally.
The 'Dores clearly had run out of gas defensively against Auburn after a gauntlet schedule, but they have largely kept every other run game in check.
The passing defense had been leaky at times, allowing too many big plays over the top. The two best passing attacks they have faced came against Alabama and Texas, and those are the two teams that beat them.
Tennessee will be another difficult test for this secondary.
A big key for this defense has been creating havoc. Vanderbilt ranks in the top 20 in forced fumbles and does a good job creating tackles for loss. Edge rushers Miles Capers and Khordae Sydnor do a good job getting into the backfield and will need to help this secondary slow down the Vols' passing attack.
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview: Count on the Offense to Click
Tennessee dealt with a chaotic offseason, headlined by the loss of quarterback Nico Iamaleava to the transfer portal and the drama that surrounded it.
The Vols seemingly haven't had much of a drop-off, though, as they're 8-3 on the year behind an improved offense.
App State transfer Joey Aguilar came in to replace Iamaleava and really prevented a drop off at the quarterback position.
Aguilar has 23 touchdown passes and leads the SEC with 3,145 passing yards. Nearly all of his numbers are better than Iamaleava’s last year, with his 10 interceptions being the only flaw.
Chris Brazzell has emerged as one of the best deep threats in college football. He has racked up 56 catches for 926 yards and eight touchdowns. He averages 16.5 yards per reception.
The Vols rank in the top 10 nationally in Pass Success Rate.
The Tennessee running game had a difficult task of replacing Dylan Sampson, but his backup, DeSean Bishop, has stepped up admirably in becoming the lead back. Bishop has rushed for 6.2 yards per carry and has 12 touchdowns on the season. The running back room has a ton of depth, and sits top 10 with 30 rushing touchdowns as a team.
Tennessee is well-balanced on offense, ranking fifth nationally in Success Rate. The Vols can run and pass effectively and are elite at finishing drives. The Vols have averaged 42.3 points per game, the fourth-highest mark nationally.
While the offense has not missed a beat this season, the defense has taken a step back from last year’s unit that led Tennessee to a College Football Playoff berth.
The Vols rank 90th in Success Rate allowed despite a very manageable schedule.
The strength of last year’s team was the defensive front, but it has not been the same this season. Tennessee ranks outside the top 100 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and has been especially bad against zone-read attacks, which Vanderbilt runs a ton.
Even though the passing numbers are not completely putrid, they have not faced many high-end passing attacks, and those they have faced have thrown it all over the place.
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Pick, Betting Analysis
Many of Tennessee’s metrics look good, and its 8-3 record has it ranked in the top 25.
Still, the Vols' schedule is a major question mark. Who is the best team the Vols have beaten this season? Their best "win" is an overtime loss to Georgia.
Tennessee has played only three teams with a winning record this season, and all three were losses. The teams the Vols beat have a combined record of 25-52 (32.5%).
It’s hard to know exactly how good this team is.
Vanderbilt��s offense has been one of the most effective groups in the country. The Commodores rank sixth nationally in Success Rate and seventh in Explosiveness.
The passing attack has really taken off this season, especially recently. Pavia has thrown 11 touchdowns over the past three games, and the ability to stretch the field through the air has only opened up the rushing attack and made them more efficient on the ground, as teams can’t key on the run game.
The biggest mismatch in his game is finishing drives. With the way Pavia has been throwing the ball, coupled with Vanderbilt’s ability to run the ball effectively against this porous Tennessee run defense, I am confident Vandy can move the ball. But how much will they score?
Vanderbilt ranks fourth nationally in finishing drives. When they get into scoring range, they finish with points. Not only that, but it is usually six points. Of 52 red zone trips this season, the ‘Dores have scored a touchdown on 40 of them (76.9%), the nation's sixth-highest mark.
On the other side, this Tennessee defense ranks 105th in Defensive Finishing Drives. The Vols have allowed opponents 35 red-zone trips, resulting in 27 touchdowns (77.1%). Only two teams in the entire country have allowed a higher touchdown percentage in the red zone: Charlotte and UAB.
Vanderbilt will be able to move the ball down the field with Pavia throwing and him and Alexander operating the zone read. When it does, it is very likely to lead to seven points.
While I expect Tennessee to create a big play or two through the air to Brazzell, the Vanderbilt offense has proven more trustworthy.
This is the biggest game in the history of Vanderbilt football, and ultimately, I believe the 'Dores are the better team.
An easy schedule has propped up Tennessee, and I like Vandy to pull off the upset at Neyland Stadium.
Pick: Vanderbilt +2.5 or Better
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Betting Trends
