College Football Odds, Picks for Virginia vs Boston College

The Virginia Cavaliers will travel to Chestnut Hill on Saturday to take on the Boston College Eagles.

This ACC matchup will see both teams with losing records face off in what should be a tight matchup.

One team in this matchup has been playing better than its final scores would suggest, and I believe that it will finally get the result it deserves this weekend.

Let’s dive into my preview of Virginia vs. Boston College for my analysis and best bet.

The Cavaliers are 0-4 to begin the season, but were just a few plays away from being 2-2. In fact, using SP+’s post-game win expectancy, Virginia would've been expected to win against both James Madison and NC State.

Freshman Anthony Colandrea took over as the starting quarterback in Week 2 and has been fairly strong. Despite his limited starting experience, Colandrea is averaging 0.14 EPA per play this year.

Virginia also hasn't yet played a defense that ranks outside of the top 70 in SP+, making this all that much more impressive.

UVA only ranks 83rd in Passing Success Rate, but it's 25th in Explosiveness and 42nd in PPA. The ground game has been a detriment to this offense, ranking 131st in Success Rate and 124th in PPA.

In the same way that the offense has faced stiff competition, the Cavaliers have also not faced an offense outside of the top 70 in SP+.

In both facets of the game, Boston College will be the worst team that Virginia has faced all season.

UVA currently ranks just 129th in Defensive Success Rate and 128th in Finishing Drives. The Cavs haven’t been good against either the run or the pass, ranking 130th and 104th in Success Rate, respectively, in these categories.

In a similar vein to Virginia, Boston College has lost two close games this year.

Unlike Virginia, however, the scoreboard was actually closer than the outcome should've been based on post-game win expectancy.

BC has also struggled defensively. The Eagles are 121st in Success Rate Allowed and 111th in Finishing Drives. The Eagles are 111th in Success Rate against the run and 114th in Success Rate against the pass.

Offensively, things have been better, as Boston College ranks 89th in Success Rate and 54th in Finishing Drives. The Eagles' success has been found mostly on the ground, where they rank 63rd in Success Rate, 31st in PPA and 25th in Explosiveness.

Through the air, the Eagles are just 110th in Success Rate and 93rd in PPA.

In order to have success this weekend, BC will need to be able to effectively run the ball against this brutally bad Virginia rushing defense.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia and Boston College match up statistically:

Virginia Offense vs. Boston College Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	131	108
Line Yards	124	78
Pass Success	83	129
Havoc	128	133
Finishing Drives	94	111
Quality Drives	116	126

Boston College Offense vs. Virginia Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	64	129
Line Yards	64	124
Pass Success	110	112
Havoc	14	110
Finishing Drives	55	128
Quality Drives	73	107

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	98	70
PFF Coverage	79	119
Special Teams SP+	116	66
Middle 8	90	133
Seconds per Play	28.5 (91)	23.6 (13)
Rush Rate	55.1% (74)	51.6% (73)

After coming close multiple times in the last few weeks, I think that this could be the weekend that Virginia picks up its first win of the season.

The offense has been steadily improving under Colandrea, and he should be able to have reasonable success against this Boston College defense.

Virginia will need to solve its run defense problems in order to stop the Eagles, but I think that its defense is better than its season-to-date numbers show due to the level of opponent that it's faced.

I believe that Virginia is the better team overall in this matchup, so I will be taking it to cover as 3.5-point underdog in this matchup.

Either way, this has a high likelihood of being a close game, so even if the spread moves, I still think that the Cavs could cover this number.