Virginia vs Georgia Tech Betting Odds & Picks: Back Cavaliers in Thursday’s ACC Showdown
Photo by Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Brennan Armstrong (Virginia)
Virginia vs Georgia Tech Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Both Virginia and Georgia Tech have struggled this season, though for different reasons.
Virginia has a first-year head coach in Tony Elliott and is looking to gain its footing.
Georgia Tech sits on the opposite end of the spectrum, having just fired head coach Geoff Collins a couple of weeks ago. However, since the coaching change, Georgia Tech has looked like a different team and won two games in a row.
The Yellow Jackets have an opportunity to keep the streak going against another lower-level conference opponent but will have to overcome their deficiencies.
Virginia's strengths line up well against Georgia Tech's weaknesses, which may lead to some potential value on the underdog.
Virginia Cavaliers
Cavaliers Offense
The Virginia offense ranks 88th in Success Rate but has been great on the ground this year. This team ranks 33rd in Rushing Success Rate and may be able to take advantage of a bad Georgia Tech rushing defense.
Quarterback Brennan Armstrong has struggled as a passer this season, averaging -0.22 EPA per dropback. He's also thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (5).
However, he's found success on the ground, averaging 6.9 yards per rush to go along with three rushing touchdowns on the year. The other part of this two-headed rushing attack is Perris Jones, who has 319 rushing yards while averaging 0.06 EPA per rush.
I expect both Armstrong and Jones to impress on the ground against this Georgia Tech defense.
Cavaliers Defense
Virginia’s defense has been the best unit in this game this season. It ranks 37th in Defensive Success Rate and 21st in Rushing Success Rate. The passing defense ranks just 74th in Success Rate, so if there's a great way to attack this defense, it would be through the air.
This defense comes in at just 71st in SP+, so it’s likely an easy strength of schedule that has helped the unit perform as well as it has. Things won't get more difficult on Thursday night, though, as Georgia Tech has struggled offensively for much of the year.
Virginia ranks 12th in the nation in PFF coverage grade and second in PFF tackling grade. The Cavaliers also rank sixth in Explosiveness on defense and have been great at limiting big plays.
I believe this defense should be strong enough to keep a weak Georgia Tech offense in check for most of the night.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Yellow Jackets Offense
Things have looked bleak for the Georgia Tech offense all season, but the team has had a bit of a revival since the firing of Collins. The Yellow Jackets come into this game having won two in a row and will have a chance to extend the streak against an opponent that is on a similar level.
The season-long numbers for Georgia Tech are not flattering. The Yellow Jackets rank 107th in Offensive Success Rate, 116th in Passing Success Rate and 72nd in Rushing Success Rate.
Unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets, this may not be the best matchup for them. Virginia has a very good rushing defense, but a below-average pass defense, so the strengths of Georgia Tech do not align well here.
Jeff Sims hasn’t been able to get this offense moving this year. He's averaging -0.18 EPA per dropback and owns just a 35% Success Rate when passing.
Like Armstrong, Sims' best attribute is his legs. Sims is the leading rusher for this Georgia Tech team and is averaging 0.13 EPA per rush.
Hassan Hall and Dontae Smith have been effective as well, both averaging over five yards per carry.
Wide receiver Nate McCollum has been the bright spot for this team. He has caught 29 of his 30 targets for 283 yards. McCollum is averaging an astonishing 0.80 EPA per play this season.
The Georgia Tech offense has shown improvements lately, but I believe Virginia’s rushing defense may pose a mismatch the Yellow Jackets are not able to overcome.
Yellow Jackets Defense
Georgia Tech’s defense has been a problem, ranking 110th in Success Rate and 127th in Rushing Success Rate. The one bright spot would be the pass defense, which is 58th in Success Rate.
This passing defense is exceptionally good at preventing explosive plays. The Yellow Jackets rank 11th in the country in Defensive Explosiveness, both overall and in pass defense. Because of this, the pass defense ranks 25th in PPA despite its Success Rate being much lower.
I still think Virginia’s rushing game can cause issues for this defense, but the Yellow Jackets are coming off of a game where they stymied a Duke offense that has been great when running the ball this year.
If Georgia Tech’s issues stopping the run have been solved, then it becomes much stronger on this side of the ball.
Virginia vs Georgia Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia and Georgia Tech match up statistically:
Virginia Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 48 | 118 | |
| Line Yards | 51 | 125 | |
| Pass Success | 106 | 59 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 128 | 103 | |
| Havoc | 105 | 57 | |
| Finishing Drives | 123 | 39 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 125 | 37 | |
| Line Yards | 75 | 101 | |
| Pass Success | 120 | 77 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 126 | 96 | |
| Havoc | 118 | 97 | |
| Finishing Drives | 119 | 61 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 12 | 42 |
| PFF Coverage | 11 | 58 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 124 | 99 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.4 (30) | 25.8 (47) |
| Rush Rate | 47.8% (101) | 53.8% (64) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Virginia vs Georgia Tech Pick
These two teams are nearly even in skill, so this may simply come down to who has the coaching advantage between Elliott and Brent Key.
I think Virginia’s strengths are in just the right places to give it heavy advantages over Georgia Tech in the rushing game on both sides of the ball.
Sims is day-to-day with a leg injury that knocked him out of the Yellow Jackets' last game. It seems like he's expected to play, but that may change.
Virginia can be found at +3.5 at some books, which I would take down to +3. If you can find a 3.5, you'll want to take that with 3 being a key number in football.
Pick: Virginia +3.5 ⋅ Play to +3 |
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