The Virginia Cavaliers take on the NC State Wolfpack in Raleigh, NC. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
NC State is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. The total is set at 54.5 points.
Here’s my Virginia vs. NC State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 6, 2025.
Virginia vs NC State Prediction
- Virginia vs. NC State Pick: Virginia +2.5
My NC State vs. Virginia best bet is on Virginia spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Virginia vs NC State Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -108 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | +114 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -112 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | -135 |
- Virginia vs NC State point spread: NC State -2.5
- Virginia vs NC State over/under: 54.5 points
- Virginia vs NC State moneyline: Virginia +114, NC State -135
Virginia vs NC State Pick, Betting Analysis
Virginia had an easy tune-up in Week 1, as it cruised past Coastal Carolina 48-7.
Now the Cavs flip their attention to the ACC already, as they travel to face an NC State team that only beat East Carolina by seven.
Quarterback Chandler Morris looked solid in Week 1, throwing for 264 yards and two touchdowns while completing over 70% of his passes.
It looks like Evan Abrams' "Fade Home Fav. In-Conf W/ 0 ATS wins" system is expecting Morris and Virginia to continue its hot play.
And here's why: In regular season college football conference play, home favorites with no wins against the spread often find themselves overvalued by the market. Despite poor ATS performance, the perception of home-field advantage and overall team strength can keep lines inflated.
Facing familiar conference opponents who understand their tendencies, these teams are more vulnerable than the odds suggest.
The combination of public bias, inflated spreads and proven inability to cover creates consistent value in fading the home favorite in this situation.
Since its inception in 2005, this system is +$1,746 with a 8.2% return on investment.
There's also some value on Virginia on the moneyline, but let's stick with the spread as an official play.
Pick: Virginia +2.5
