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Virginia Tech vs NC State Odds, Picks: Why to Bet Thursday’s Underdog

Virginia Tech vs NC State Odds, Picks: Why to Bet Thursday’s Underdog article feature image
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Ryan Hunt/Getty Images. Pictured: Virginia Tech defensive back Chamarri Conner.

Virginia Tech vs NC State Odds

Thursday, Oct. 27
7:30 p.m. ET
ESPN
Virginia Tech Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+13.5
-112
39.5
-105o / -115u
+400
NC State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-13.5
-108
39.5
-105o / -115u
-550
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

It’s Week 9 of the college football season, and the Virginia Tech Hokies are still looking for their first road win. They head to Raleigh to face NC State on Thursday night hoping to also end a four-game losing streak.

Meanwhile, NC State is trying to get back on track after suffering an embarrassing 24-9 loss at the hands of Syracuse last week.

The oddsmakers don’t have much faith in the Hokies, making them a 14-point underdog. But Raleigh has been kind to Tech as of late, as VT is on a five-game win streak in the series, which includes the last two meetings in Raleigh.

Can it find more of that magic and pull off the upset?


Virginia Tech Hokies

When it comes to the Hokies offense, I struggle to find any redeeming qualities.

In their last game against Miami — which lost to Middle Tennessee; people forget that — the Hokies were at risk of being shut out for the first time since 1995 until the fourth quarter.

The Virginia Tech offense ranks among the bottom three in the ACC, averaging just 19.1 points and 321 yards per contest. As a team, it sits second-to-last in both rushing and passing offense.

Quarterback Grant Wells is worse than only his in-state counterpart, Brennan Armstrong of Virginia, when it comes to interceptions.

How did this team win even two games, you ask? Well, first of all, those two wins came at home over Boston College and Wofford.

The Hokies have benefited heavily from opponent penalties as well. However, I’m not yet convinced that it’s due to their ability to draw penalties in crucial situations.

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NC State Wolfpack

NC State has some serious concerns of its own, but I wonder which is more concerning — the loss of starting quarterback Devin Leary or head coach Dave Doeren’s decision to keep it a secret from the wagering public before kickoff of the Syracuse game.

And as much as I’d love to rally around FCS alumnus Jack Chambers, the drop-off was game-changing for the Wolfpack. In fairness, Chambers was solid, completing 60% of his passes for 160 yards and one touchdown. However, as a team, the Wolfpack took four trips to the red zone and came away with just three field goals.

Syracuse has the second-best red zone defense in the conference, while Virginia Tech ranks dead last. It’s still hard to trust a backup quarterback thrown into an urgent situation, especially against a Hokies team starving for a win.

The Wolfpack defense is among the best in the ACC and the nation. NC State is holding opponents to just 16.9 points and 310 yards per game while ranking top-30 in Defensive Success Rate and Defensive Finishing Drives.

I have no doubt the Wolfpack defense can keep the Hokies in check. My genuine concern is whether or not their offense can produce enough to cover a near two-touchdown spread.


Virginia Tech vs NC State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia Tech and NC State match up statistically:

Virginia Tech Offense vs NC State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 123 30
Line Yards 121 9
Pass Success 97 9
Pass Blocking** 40 72
Havoc 52 27
Finishing Drives 127 28
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

NC State Offense vs Virginia Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 42 44
Line Yards 55 22
Pass Success 82 12
Pass Blocking** 28 19
Havoc 47 30
Finishing Drives 83 112
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 17 95
PFF Coverage 97 25
SP+ Special Teams 30 25
Seconds per Play 25.9 (50) 27.6 (93)
Rush Rate 48.9% (93) 50.4% (84)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Virginia Tech vs NC State Betting Pick

The Virginia Tech Hokies are bad at football; there’s no other way to say it. They’ve been blown out by West Virginia, North Carolina and Pitt.

However, Chambers might be even worse.

At Charleston Southern, Chambers threw 23 interceptions in two seasons. Add in the 2020 spring season, and he threw 27 interceptions in 26 games. He had 22 turnover-worthy plays in 2021 against FCS competition, according to PFF. It still would’ve led the country among Power Five teams that year.

Chambers had some luck against Syracuse, but I’m not confident in him as nearly a two-touchdown favorite against any Division I team in the country — much less one that needs a win like it needs air to breathe.

I know Virginia Tech is a tough team to watch and lay money down on. But I’d back the Hokies here at any number +10.5 or better. Our Action Network projections make VT just a 9-point underdog.

Pick: Virginia Tech +13.5 ⋅ Play to +10.5

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