NCAAF Odds, Pick for Washington State vs Cal

California and Washington State meet at California Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon for a Pac-12 matchup between two programs that desperately need a win.

The Golden Bears have dropped four straight to ranked opponents to enter this game at 3-6 overall and 1-5 in conference play.

Meanwhile, the Cougars have also been on a losing skid, dropping the last five to own a 4-5 record on the season.

This may not be the most-watched game for Week 11, but I do believe there's solid betting value in this Pac-12 battle.

After the month of September, head coach Jake Dickert’s team was starting to get media attention as a potential challenger in the conference. The Cougars had wins over Wisconsin and Oregon State to go with dominant victories over Colorado State and Northern Colorado on the resume.

However, not much has gone right for them after their Week 5 bye. It's easy to understand the losses to Arizona and Oregon, but the ones to Arizona State and Stanford are hard to comprehend.

Even with this slide, Dickert’s offense is still one of the best in the nation, ranking second in the country in passing. The leader is quarterback Cam Ward, who ranks fifth nationally in total offense.

Ward’s key target is Lincoln Victor. The wide receiver ranks eighth in the FBS in receptions, which includes a 16-catch effort at Oregon.

The offense has struggled over this stretch and the defense is nothing to write home about, but Dickert’s squad still has a chance to make a bowl game with two wins.

If Washington State has to beat opponents through the air, California’s way to success is all on the ground. Head coach Justin Wilcox’s team ranks third in the conference and 15th nationally with 22 rushing touchdowns.

The Golden Bears also sit in the top 30 in rushing yards per game at 190.3, which is the most for the program since 2005. It's also more than double their 2022 average of 96.6.

The key performer has been Jaydn Ott, who's proven to be one of the top running backs in the country. On the year, Ott sits in the top 25 in the FBS in rushing yards per game (106.1), total rushing yards (849), rushing scores (9) and total touchdowns (10).

He's also putting up numbers that rival some of the best backs in the program before him. Ott has 1,744 rushing yards through his first 20 games as a Golden Bear, which is more than former NFL players J.J Arrington, Marshawn Lynch and Jahvid Best.

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I never would've thought that I would give out California as a best bet in a college football article this year. However, I can’t ignore how far Washington State has dropped over the last month.

So, my best bet is to take the Golden Bears on the moneyline at -115 odds at FanDuel, which I would bet to -125.

One glaring issue is going to be how the Cougars are going to stop Cal’s run game. In the last four weeks, Washington State has been in the bottom 15 among Power 5 programs in Defensive Rush Success and rush explosiveness.

This is a defense that gave up over 230 rushing yards to both Oregon and Arizona State. For reference, the Sun Devils have averaged only 104 yards on the ground this year.

If a team is allowing opponents to chew up yards and clock with a run game, it means its offense has to be firing on all cylinders.

But that hasn’t been the case for the Cougars since the bye week.

Over the last five games, they've averaged only 318.6 yards per game of total offense. This is much fewer than the 533.5 yards per contest it averaged in the opening four weeks of the season.

This Cal defense could be the perfect medicine for a struggling offense, but I’ll pay to see it happen first.

Pick: California ML -115 (Play to -125)

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