After a fun first week of MACtion, we're back for more on Wednesday.
For the first time this season, Wednesday's college football slate features three games in America's favorite college football conference:
- Miami (OH) vs. Toledo
- UMass vs. Northern Illinois
- Central Michigan vs. Buffalo
So, without further ado, let's take a look at our Wednesday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for the 3-game MAC slate on Wednesday, Nov. 12.
Wednesday College Football Predictions, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of MACtion games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Miami (OH) vs Toledo Pick
By Alex Hinton
Two weeks ago, Toledo was a short favorite for a trip out west and fell to Washington State, 28-7. It then returned home to the Glass Bowl and cruised to a 42-3 win over Northern Illinois.
While it's just two weeks, they encapsulate the stark difference between Toledo's home and away splits this season.
Toledo is 5-0 at home while outscoring its opponents, 237-37. Meanwhile, it's 0-4 on the road while being outscored, 94-59.
Both teams enter this matchup 6-3 against the spread. However, Toledo has gone just 1-3 ATS on the road, while Miami (OH) is 3-1 at home both straight up and against the spread.
Additionally, the RedHawks are building momentum down the stretch. Over their past seven games, they're averaging 30.1 points per game while giving up 19 per contest.
Toledo may be the better team in this game, but it hasn't shown up on the road. At +4, I have to back the home team and don't mind a sprinkle on the moneyline as well. For what it's worth, Miami (OH) has gone 20-3 over its last 23 MAC games.
Pick: Miami (OH) +4
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UMass vs NIU Pick
By Road to CFB
UMass took market movement since opening as a +13.5 home underdog. With a low total set at 42.5 points, taking a home underdog with the possibility of some adverse weather makes sense.
What doesn’t make sense is spotting UMass 15.5 points scored in the game.
This is a team that’s so ineffective at scoring points, it took one enormous outlier performance to skew the entire season's total of rushing explosion to score 21.
Running back Brandon Hood’s 179-yard outing against Buffalo is truly the only outlier this team has to hold onto. Quarterback AJ Hairston also hit a receiver for a 77-yard touchdown on a broken play.
Outside of that, UMass hasn’t exceeded 13 points against FBS competition once and has been held to 10 or fewer points in six of the remaining seven contests.
Over 27% of UMass’ entire FBS scoring output on the season came in 19 minutes of gameplay and featured 167 yards of offense in two scoring plays.
NIU fields a defense with half a pulse — average by MAC standards, even — and we’re getting UMass to score a minimum twice, more likely three times. That’s a feat it’s accomplished once all season with the aforementioned outlier performance.
This is a simple handicap.
UMass’ offense is at historic levels of bad, down a few pieces to injury and is a part of an 0-9 team playing on a Tuesday night with potential mixed precipitation.
Weather forecasts for Amherst call for temperatures in the mid-30s, moderate sustained winds between 10-15 MPH and a low chance of mixed precipitation, likely in the form of snow by this hour. Classic MACtion weather.
But even if the night turns out to be perfectly clear, UMass has to hope that three broken plays afford it the ability to find the end zone.
I’ll fade that outcome against a defense that’s done its job limiting explosives on the season.
Pick: UMass Team Total Under 15.5
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Central Michigan vs Buffalo Pick
By John Feltman
Situationally, this game heavily favors Central Michigan. Buffalo has played close, turnover-aided games to scrape by mediocre teams, and regression tends to hit hard in spots like this.
This is a team whose 5-4 record looks far better on paper than its underlying performance metrics suggest.
Buffalo has feasted on the bottom of the conference, with most of its wins coming against struggling programs like Kent State, Bowling Green, UMass and Akron. Not to mention, most of those wins came by one possession.
Strip away its overall record, and the data paints a far less flattering picture.
The Buffalo offense ranks 99th nationally in EPA Per Pass and a dismal 128th in EPA Per Rush, racking up just 39% of available yards to rank 108th nationally.
Playing on the road in November in typical MACtion weather against a physical team that can limit possessions sounds like trouble for the Bulls.
Central Michigan’s defense has also been opportunistic in key moments, forcing teams into long-yardage situations where it ranks near the national average in getting off the field. If the Chips can keep the Bulls in long downs and distances, it will give their offense a fighting chance to put points on the board.
The Chippewas have the stronger underlying profile, better early-down metrics and home-field advantage in a game where efficiency and execution matter more than raw record.
Fade the inflated record; this is the perfect spot to sell high on Buffalo.
Pick: Central Michigan -1 (Play to -2.5)
