Welcome to another week of Wednesday night football.
Tonight's college football slate features 2 games in Conference USA.
First, the Delaware Blue Hens head south to Alabama to take on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks. At the same time, the UTEP Miners will head across the state to Huntsville to face the Sam Houston Bearkats.
Without further ado, let's take a look at our Wednesday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for the 2-game slate on Wednesday, Oct. 15.
Wednesday College Football Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Delaware vs Jacksonville State Prediction
By John Feltman
The Delaware Blue Hens take on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in Jacksonville, Alabama, on Wednesday, Oct. 15. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Delaware is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. Jacksonville State comes in as a +2.5 underdog and is +120 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 57.5 points.
Here’s my Delaware vs. Jacksonville State prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, October 15.
Delaware Blue Hens
Delaware’s offense enters this game with a balance and efficiency that travels.
The Blue Hens rank 54th in EPA Per Pass and 28th in EPA Per Rush, per Game On Paper. Those numbers suggest they're not a one-dimensional unit, as they can move the ball through the air and on the ground.
Quarterback Nick Minicucci has been outstanding this season, throwing for 1,372 yards at a 64.5% completion rate with eight touchdowns and just three interceptions. He has also run for 128 yards and seven scores, making him one of the country's most efficient dual-threat quarterbacks.
Delaware has converted 57.3% of its third- and fourth-down tries (7th), which speaks to its ability to avoid three-and-outs and sustain drives. That's because it ranks 26th nationally in average distance to go on third down (6.42 yards).
Jacksonville State’s defense, meanwhile, is middling in efficiency allowed. The Gamecocks rank 69th in EPA Per Pass and 75th in EPA Per Rush. They also come into this game at 71st in Success Rate allowed on late downs, so they're far from elite.
Delaware should be able to consistently move the chains against a defense that's not exceptional on early downs or late downs.
On the defensive side, Delaware faces a potent Jacksonville State offense.
JSU ranks eighth nationally in EPA Per Rush, which creates a matchup edge when paired against a Delaware defense that sits 127th in EPA Per Rush allowed. With that said, the Gamecocks' ground game should be a substantial weapon.
Jacksonville State's passing game has also been efficient, ranking 31st in EPA Per Pass. Delaware's stop unit, meanwhile, ranks 128th in that area.
That matchup creates danger for linebackers and secondary defenders in play-action and coverage mismatches.
JSU should find success on early downs and give itself to convert manageable third downs.
A few defensive injuries are worth monitoring for the Hens, as those won't help their already struggling unit. They are coming off a bye, though, so I at least expect the offense to do its part on Wednesday.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State’s offense is explosive, and its strengths align with Delaware’s weaknesses. As mentioned, it ranks eighth in EPA Per Rush, and its ranking of 31st in EPA Per Pass provides balance.
This combination means JSU can punish Delaware whether the Blue Hens load the box or concede vertical stretch plays.
Delaware’s defense, meanwhile, is comparatively porous in both areas. It ranks 127th in EPA Per Rush allowed and 128th in EPA Per Pass allowed.
That vulnerability is precisely what an offense like JSU’s needs to maximize touchdown opportunities rather than settle for field goals.
On the defensive front, JSU has been right around average. The Gamecocks haven't put up terrible numbers, but combined with their weaknesses on money downs (43.2% Success Rate allowed), the defense isn't built to withstand long, sustained pressure from a balanced offense.
Offensive lineman Lance Johnson is questionable to play for JSU and is a massive injury worth monitoring. He's critical to the Gamecocks' offensive success, so if he can't play, they're in serious trouble.
Delaware vs Jacksonville State Pick
There's a lot to like about the over in this matchup. The market has steamed the total down from open but has ticked back up to 57.5 over the last couple of days.
These two offensive units are positioned to stress the opposing defenses in their weakest areas.
Johnson's injury is massive for the Gamecocks, but I still think they should be able to score against a struggling Hens defense.
The over is my best bet for the matchup, but I could see myself adding Delaware -2.5 if I hear Johnson is out for JSU.
Pick: Over 57.5 (Play to 58.5)
| |
UTEP vs Sam Houston Prediction
By Road To CFB
The UTEP Miners take on the Sam Houston State Bearkats in Houston, Texas. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
UTEP is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. Sam Houston, meanwhile, comes in as a +2.5 underdog and is +120 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 points.
Here’s my UTEP vs. Sam Houston prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 15.
UTEP Miners
The Scotty Walden era has yet to get its footing in El Paso.
Walden brought an ultra-tempo offense to UTEP with a promise of high-flying, high-scoring affairs. Through 18 games, UTEP has scored 30-plus against three FBS opponents (3-0 in such games!) and failed to score 14 eight times.
This season, the Miners topped out with 25 points scored in a loss to ULM and have averaged 14 points against FBS foes.
It doesn't help that transfer quarterback Malachi Nelson just hasn't been any good. The former blue-chip recruit has nine interceptions on the season, and his receivers have dropped 14 passes.
It's resulted in an offense that ranks 130th in points per drive scored and owns an 0-5 mark against FBS competition.
Despite the tempo, UTEP's defense has fared quite well.
No team has blown it out thanks to a unit that ranks 25th in Success Rate allowed and fourth in Success Rate allowed on third and fourth down.
Defensive coordinator Bobby Daly brought his scheme down from Montana State, and it has thrived through six weeks here.
Linebacker Micah Davey earned All-America honors at McNeese and now leads the team with 40 tackles and has added eight pressures. He's likely the best player on the field this Wednesday.
But as good as the defense can be, the offense sinks any chance at bowl eligibility.
Four of UTEP's final six games come away from home, and opponents after Sam Houston left on the slate are a combined 7-3 in CUSA play.
Perhaps the Miners move in the right direction, but an improvement on 3-9 from last year seems unlikely.
Sam Houston Bearkats
Once K.C. Keeler left for Temple, Sam Houston decided to move in the opposite direction.
It went from a rock-fight specialist to an Air Raid attack, hiring Phil Longo to be the head coach. The move was meant to shift the identity of the Bearkats on the field and turn them into a fun watch.
But heading into midweek CUSA play, Sam Houston stands 0-6 with an offense that ranks 129th in points per drive and a defense that ranks 132nd. To put it kindly, the team has been downright awful.
Despite rostering many of the same pieces from last year's team — which scored just enough points per game to win 10 games and dropped 40 on Texas State — the offense looks confused and disorganized.
Quarterback Hunter Watson played well last week against Jacksonville State but missed two games to injury early on. There's little identity on the ground, and Sam Houston's top receivers haven't been utilized properly.
But even 24 points is enough to secure wins in Conference USA against some bottom-rung offenses. It's the defense that has sunk the ship early on.
The secondary can't cover, leading to a ranking of 135th in Passing Success Rate allowed, and Sam Houston is one of the worst tackling teams in the nation.
Sam Houston's best defender, linebacker JaMair Diaz, missed the last two games to injury and is questionable for Week 8.
Longo has a few years to get things on track. For starters, the school invested a ton of money to renovate Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, signaling more investment in a football program that hasn't spent like an FBS program since transitioning from FCS a few years ago.
His offensive system may take another year to integrate, and Longo needs to bring in players specialized for the Air Raid.
But for this year, it might be a lost cause.
UTEP vs Sam Houston Pick
UTEP opened as a +6.5 underdog in this game, a number that quickly disappeared, as the Miners are now favored by 2.5 points. The total was bet up from 45.5 to 47.5.
With a loss Wednesday night, Sam Houston's bowl aspirations come to an end at 0-7. While the feeling of bowl ineligibility is likely already cemented in the locker room, teams will often avoid losing that seventh game, if only for another week.
There are some advantages to playing games at Shell Energy Stadium if you're Sam Houston.
For one, more alumni likely live in Houston or close to Houston than in Huntsville proper.
But traffic jams, especially for night and midweek games, have become a real issue. Attendance is down, and the crowd is very late arriving at the venue due to Houston traffic. On a work/school night, going to this game is logistically difficult. That's to say, there's probably not going to be a full house.
This line moved drastically, and there are plenty of UTEP bettors with nice numbers in pocket. But results show that numbers are moving too far this season. Fading closing numbers at kickoff has resulted in a 55% cover rate (h/t Brad Powers).
Good practice says to take the home 'dog in a game with a low total. This year's practice says it's also sharp to fade closing numbers that swing too far.
We have two bad football teams, two horrendous offenses, and the visitors bring in a bad quarterback. That and good practice lead me to take Sam Houston at +3 or better at "home" on Wednesday night.
Pick: Sam Houston +3
