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You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers. To kick off the chalk talk this week, we're rolling with two Power 4 favorites in the SEC and Big Ten.
Let's dive into our Week 11 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Missouri vs. Georgia and Minnesota vs. Penn State on Saturday, Nov. 14.
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Week 11 College Football Picks
- Georgia -15.5 vs. Missouri
- Penn State -9.5 vs. Minnesota
Missouri vs Georgia Pick
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +530 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -750 |
Georgia is the right side here, and I think the Bulldogs can run Missouri right out of the building, well past the number on the board.
The matchup starts with Missouri’s offense, which has struggled to run the ball all year.
But the bigger problem is on defense, where there really aren’t any answers for Georgia’s rushing attack. The Bulldogs have been rolling on the ground, and this looks like a spot where they can take complete control.
Georgia will lean on heavy inside zone, and that’s the exact run concept Missouri has had the most trouble defending. The Tigers are allowing a 43% Success Rate on inside zone, giving up a positive EPA, and surrendering an explosive run about one out of every five snaps.
That’s not a recipe for slowing down Georgia.
Running back Chauncey Bowens is no longer on the availability report for Georgia, which means the Bulldogs are close to full strength in the backfield. If that’s the case, this rushing attack only gets more dangerous.
Missouri has also been poor on the road. You can almost throw out the Arkansas game because of the weather and the turnovers, but outside of that, it got blasted at Ole Miss and gave up seven yards per play to Mississippi State in Week 4.
This team has not been reliable away from home.
Even with that, the road trend almost doesn’t matter here. Georgia’s rushing attack is just too much for Missouri to handle.
Pick: Georgia -15.5
Minnesota vs Penn State Pick
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 41.5 -120o / -100u | +280 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 41.5 -120o / -100u | -360 |
By Stuckey
I’m rolling with Penn State at -9.5.
The Nittany Lions have been playing better lately, and they’ve done a better job finding receivers. Quarterback Rocco Becht has also looked better.
Coming out of the bye, though, this is mostly a matchup play.
Penn State’s pass defense is elite, while the run defense is still gettable. The problem for Minnesota is that it can’t run the ball at all. The Gophers can’t run it on anybody, really.
And I could see Minnesota just running out of gas here. It's been through the wringer lately — home against Iowa in an upset win, overtime against Indiana with a loss on a last-second field goal after exchanging 60-yard kicks, and then last week against UCLA, a game that was tied in the middle of the fourth quarter.
That’s three top-15 games in a row.
Now, the Gophers have to go to Penn State, where the Nittany Lions are playing better and the matchup is a bad one. Give me Penn State.
Pick: Penn State -9.5
