West Virginia-Iowa State Betting Guide: Purdy Brings Life to Cyclones Offense
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Will Grier and Brock Purdy
West Virginia-Iowa State Betting Pick, Odds
- Odds: West Virginia -6.5
- Over/Under: 57
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: Fox Sports 1
>> All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.
For all the love Texas coach Tom Herman gets for his against-the-spread prowess when getting points, there’s another coach in his conference who’s been extremely profitable in that spot.
Matt Campbell is 15-6 against the spread as an underdog at Iowa State, and 25-12 overall. He’s also 11-26 straight up as a dog, earning $100 bettors $4,684 and a 126.6% ROI in those games.
The Cyclones pulled off a big upset last week at Oklahoma State. Can Campbell run it back against quarterback Will Grier and West Virginia?
Market Moves for West Virginia-Iowa State
Fifty-two percent of bettors are counting on West Virginia to stay undefeated, but they’re making up only 36% of the dollars wagered on this game. Still, the Mountaineers have gone from -4.5 to -6.5 since opening.
As for the total, the number has bounced around a bit, but settled at 57.5 after opening at 57. More than 90% of bettors are taking the over.
Trends to Know
By John Ewing
Since becoming a head coach in 2012, Campbell is the most profitable one in the Bet Labs database with a 46-28-2 ATS record (+15.39 units).
Since coming to Ames from Toledo, Campbell has led Iowa State to a 20-9 ATS record, including 15-6 ATS as an underdog, covering on average by 6.9 points per game.
By Evan Abrams
Dana Holgorsen has been the head coach at West Virginia since 2011. There is only one team he is 3-0 ATS on the road against — Iowa State. West Virginia is covering the spread by 10.2 points per game with none of the spreads being above 10 points for any of the three games.
If you are thinking of backing the Mountaineers on the road, consider this: Since 2005, Power 5 top-10 teams in conference road games are covering the spread 48% of the time.
If you look closely, the Big Ten is 56-35-1 ATS (61.5%) in that spot, the ACC is an even 30-30 ATS, while the SEC, Pac-12 and Big 12 are 148-188-6 ATS (44%), losing bettors 46 units.
Airing it Out
You probably know that West Virginia likes to throw, since it has one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Grier. And the metrics back it up.
WVU ranks bottom 20 in Standard Down and Passing Down Run Rate, according to Football Study Hall. It calls passing plays on more than 56% of snaps, seventh in the nation.
Interestingly enough, teams have attacked Iowa State’s defense with a similar philosophy. Teams run 49.5% of the time on Standard Downs against the Cyclones, the fourth-lowest rate in the country. The opposition likes to air it out early on a set of downs. That should help extend the clock and lead to more possessions and therefore, more points.
Third Downs Will Be Key
West Virginia converts third downs at 56.9% (No. 4 nationally) and should keep the sticks moving against a Cyclones defense that allows opponents to convert 45.5% of third downs (118th).
Per S&P+, the Mountaineers offense ranks ninth in Third Down Success Rate, including third overall on third and long. That could pose major problems for an Iowa State defense that ranks 123rd and 116th in those two categories, respectively.
Bet to Watch for WVU-Iowa State
Brock Purdy, the National Freshman of the Week, has woken up a sleeping Cyclones offense.
Purdy went 18 of 23 for 318 yards four touchdowns against Oklahoma State, and led Iowa State in rushing with 84 yards. I’d say that’s quite a debut, especially considering his team pulled off a road upset in Stillwater as a 10-point underdog.
Purdy brings life to the Cyclone offense, and can potentially exploit West Virginia’s smaller corners with 6-foot-6 Hakeem Butler out wide.
I actually think there is value in the over here, especially if Iowa State running back David Montgomery doesn’t play. I think we are in for a shootout between Grier and Purdy.
If this line gets to WVU -7, I think you have to also take the home dog, which might still be worth a look at 6.5. Iowa State simply doesn’t get blown out.
The Cyclones have lost eight games over the past two years, all by 10 points or fewer.