The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers take on the Toledo Rockets in Toledo, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Toledo is favored by -7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -275. The total is set at 58.5 points.
Here’s my Western Kentucky vs. Toledo predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 6, 2025.
Western Kentucky vs Toledo Prediction
- Western Kentucky vs. Toledo Pick: Western Kentucky +7
My Toledo vs. Western Kentucky best bet is on the Hilltoppers spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Western Kentucky vs Toledo Odds
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -285 |
- Western Kentucky vs Toledo point spread: Toledo -7
- Western Kentucky vs Toledo over/under: 58.5 points
- Western Kentucky vs Toledo moneyline: Western Kentucky +230, Toledo -285
Western Kentucky vs Toledo Pick, Betting Analysis
Tyson Helton is running it back with the same play that worked so well for the Hilltoppers a few years ago when Bailey Zappe took over the college football world.
Helton went back to the FCS level to pluck a high-scoring offensive coordinator and quarterback pairing, bringing Rick Bowie and Maverick McIvor from Abilene Christian.
The combo helped Abilene Christian finish fourth among FCS teams in total offense after McIvor threw for 30 touchdown passes with just eight interceptions.
The wide receiver room always seems to be loaded for the Hilltoppers, and they added FCS All-American Matthew Henry from Western Illinois. He already seems to be McIvor’s favorite target, along with K.D. Hutchinson. Henry is averaging 21.0 yards per catch through two games.
So far, the plan is once again working, as Western Kentucky has scored 96 points across its first two games behind 400 passing yards per game. McIvor leads the country with eight passing touchdowns and no interceptions.
Toledo has boasted one of the Group of 5’s better defenses over the past few years, but the Rockets continue to lose players to the NFL, and that’s eventually going to catch up to a MAC school.
The entire front seven from last year’s squad departed. Western Kentucky won’t run the ball down Toledo’s throat, but McIvor will have plenty of time in the pocket.
That said, Toledo’s secondary is still strong, so can the Rockets hang with Western Kentucky’s air raid for four quarters?’
If they can’t, will Tucker Gleason and the Toledo offense keep up?
Gleason is an OK MAC quarterback with a talented group of wideouts, but I don’t love him. He posted just 12 Big Time Throws to 17 Turnover Worthy Plays last season while completing just 60% of his passes. He posted the MAC’s sixth-best PFF Passing grade.
Jason Candle-led teams are just 18-23 against the spread as a favorite of 10 points or less, and just 1-4 ATS in non-conference games as a favorite of 10 points or less, including last year when the Rockets lost outright to Western Kentucky.
Pick: Western Kentucky +7
