NCAAF Odds, Picks for Western Kentucky vs. Troy

In Week 4, we'll see Western Kentucky (2-1) travel to take on Troy (1-2).

Troy was a defensive stalwart in 2022, but with some key departures, I think we could see this explosive Hilltoppers passing attack take advantage.

Let’s take a look at my preview and best bet for Western Kentucky vs. Troy.

WKU has been a difficult team to evaluate so far this season. Coming into the year, the Hilltoppers were known for their offense, as they averaged 36.4 points per game last year.

However, it's been hard to tell exactly how good they are on that side of the ball in 2023.

The Hilltoppers looked great on offense against Houston Christian, which is a bottom-tier FCS team currently. But they also had just a 25th-percentile Offensive Success Rate against USF before then turning around and putting up a 46th-percentile Success Rate against Ohio State.

Austin Reed is back at quarterback this year for WKU after throwing for 4,744 yards and 40 touchdowns last year. To begin 2023, he's thrown for 830 yards and seven touchdowns. His efficiency has been spotty at just 0.01 EPA per dropback.

The Western Kentucky defense has been brutal to start the year; the unit currently ranks 126th in Success Rate and 124th in Finishing Drives. It's also just 105th in Havoc generated.

With only four starters back on defense from last year, a rough start was to be expected, but the Hilltoppers haven't gotten going yet at all.

It’s the run defense that's been particularly bad, as they rank 131st in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 132nd in Rushing PPA Allowed.

The pass defense has at least been serviceable at 61st in Success Rate.

Troy does pass the ball at a much higher rate than it runs it, so the flaws in WKU’s defense may not be quite as pronounced this week.

So far this season, Troy has actually played better than its final scores have shown.

Comparing these actual scores to SP+’s postgame win expectancy, the Trojans were 34.5 points better than Stephen F. Austin in their 18-point victory, just 26.5 points worse than Kansas State in their 29-point loss and they even outplayed James Madison by 9.1 points last weekend in a two-point defeat.

At some point, Troy may start to get the results that it's played up to.

Troy’s offense hasn't performed well this season, but the unit has played a tough schedule of defenses. Kansas State has the No. 29 defense in SP+, while James Madison has one of the better units in the G5, ranking 66th.

Even Stephen F. Austin has an above-average defense at the FCS level.

This is all to say: Troy’s offense may be able to get right here against a weaker WKU defense.

As mentioned above, Troy has passed the ball at the 17th-highest rate in the country so far. It hasn't done so effectively, however, ranking 109th in Passing Success Rate and 78th in PPA.

The rushing offense has also struggled, ranking 86th in Success Rate and 107th in PPA.

Troy’s defense was excellent in 2022, but after losing five of its top eight tacklers, you would expect the unit to take a step back. The Trojans currently rank 54th in Defensive Success Rate. They're 35th in Success Rate against the run, but 85th against the pass.

Since WKU passes at the eighth-highest rate in FBS, this secondary will certainly be put to the test.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Western Kentucky and Troy match up statistically:

Western Kentucky Offense vs. Troy Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	70	35
Line Yards	63	9
Pass Success	77	43
Havoc	85	103
Finishing Drives	8	105
Quality Drives	92	96

Troy Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	89	131
Line Yards	68	133
Pass Success	116	57
Havoc	132	106
Finishing Drives	81	122
Quality Drives	104	90

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	106	25
PFF Coverage	43	32
Special Teams SP+	49	93
Middle 8	122	76
Seconds per Play	26.6 (63)	26.7 (64)
Rush Rate	38.9% (126)	45.6% (116)

Western Kentucky has a strong passing offense, and this is where Troy’s defense can be taken advantage of.

I believe that WKU will be able to produce through the air this weekend.

Troy will need to be able to run the ball effectively to fully take advantage of this Hilltoppers defense, and I don’t think that it will run at a high enough rate — or with enough success — to capitalize on this WKU weakness.

As underdogs, I like taking the Hilltoppers here outright. If you would rather take the points, you could while getting them outside of the key number of three.

The alignment of WKU’s strengths and weaknesses versus what Troy will likely do is the main decider in this game for me.