Wisconsin vs Illinois Picks & Odds: How to Bet Short Spread

Coming off of a tough loss at the hands of Iowa a week ago, the Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) will head to Champaign to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (3-4) in a Big Ten West battle.

Illinois picked up a win over Maryland last Saturday on the road, but I don’t think it will have as much success this weekend because this matchup doesn't favor it in the same way.

Let's dive into the Wisconsin vs Illinois Odds, Pick & Prediction.

While we were promised a new-look Wisconsin offense under offensive coordinator Phil Longo this year, that hasn't really been the case to this point.

The Badgers have been good on a down-to-down basis, but their lack of explosiveness has hampered the offense’s overall output. Wisconsin ranks 33rd in Offensive Success Rate but 131st in explosiveness.

The ground game has been their strength this year, as is the standard for Wisconsin football. They Badgers rank 10th in Rushing Success Rate and 35th in Rushing PPA. When throwing the ball, they sit 80th in Success Rate and 111th in PPA.

They've operated at almost an exact 50-50 split in terms of play-calling this year, but it seems like they should lean into the run a bit more based on those numbers.

It likely will be a heavier rushing attack this week, as Badgers quarterback Tanner Mordecai will be out for this matchup with a fractured right hand. Freshman Braedyn Locke will be thrust into the starting role after he completed 15 of his 30 passes for 122 yards and an interception in relief of Mordecai against the Hawkeyes.

This doesn't dramatically change my view here, as I still think Wisconsin will move the ball nearly as effectively as it did prior to Mordecai's injury against an Illinois defense that has taken a big step back from last season.

Defensively, this also seems like the Wisconsin of old, as the Badgers rank 26th in Defensive Success Rate and 10th in Finishing Drives. They're also the 43rd-best unit in the country at creating Havoc for opposing offenses.

Illinois relies on the run game offensively, which I don’t think will work against this Badgers front seven. Wisconsin ranks 33rd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 41st in Rushing PPA.

The main flaw in this defense has been its propensity to allow explosive runs, but it will be playing a rushing attack that ranks just 107th in explosiveness this week, so I don’t expect that to bite the Badgers in this matchup.

The passing defense for Wisconsin has been strong as well, ranking 41st in Success Rate, 12th in explosiveness and 15th in PPA.

If Wisconsin can force Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer into a lot of passing downs, it should find success, as the Badgers sit 12th in Passing Downs Success Rate defensively.

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Last weekend, we saw Illinois bounce back in a big way with a tight road win over Maryland, moving to 3-4 on the season and inching back toward bowl eligibility.

Moving the ball has been a struggle for this Illinois offense this year, as last weekend’s game was only the second time all season that it posted an above-average Success Rate against a Power 5 opponent.

The common thread between those two games against Maryland and Kansas? Both teams have poor run defenses. Illinois put up a 70th-percentile EPA per Rush against Maryland and a 99th-percentile mark against Kansas. Those two defenses rank 100th and 96th in Success Rate, respectively.

That ability to run the ball is key to the Illinois offense. While it's 41st in Success Rate overall, it sits 110th in explosiveness and 91st in Finishing Drives. The passing game ranks 51st in Success Rate with the rushing offense coming in at 35th. With their high passing rate and a small difference between those efficiency numbers, the Illini are decent in both areas.

However, it’s the rushing ability that allows Illinois to move the ball on early downs so it can avoid passing downs, where it's been poor this year. Illinois ranks 28th in standard downs Success Rate but just 110th on passing downs.

If it wants to put points on the board this weekend, it will need to move the ball effectively on early downs against a better Wisconsin run defense.

Defensively, the Illini have not been what they were last year. They rank 109th in Success Rate and 82nd in Finishing Drives, including Success Rate marks of 98th against the pass and 96th against the run.

Their one strength defensively has been their ability to prevent explosive plays. Illinois sits 20th in passing explosiveness allowed and 22nd in rushing explosiveness allowed, putting them at eighth overall in defensive explosiveness this year.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wisconsin and Illinois match up statistically:

Wisconsin Offense vs. Illinois Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	10	95
Line Yards	12	116
Pass Success	83	72
Havoc	16	117
Finishing Drives	30	82
Quality Drives	108	104

Illinois Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	35	33
Line Yards	37	40
Pass Success	51	12
Havoc	113	60
Finishing Drives	92	10
Quality Drives	123	10

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	62	48
PFF Coverage	19	102
Special Teams SP+	11	69
Middle 8	68	75
Seconds per Play	25.5 (40)	24.4 (20)
Rush Rate	51.5% (64)	48.2% (115)

This spread is much closer than it should be, in my opinion. While Wisconsin's offense hasn’t been what many thought it would be this season, it's still a better team than Illinois and should be laying more than a field goal even on the road.

Wisconsin’s offense is strong down to down and should be able to matriculate down the field against an Illinois defense that has taken a step back from last year.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s rushing defense will be able to force the Illini into passing downs, where they tend to struggle.

I believe this is a great matchup for a Wisconsin team looking to improve to 5-2 on the year. This is one of my favorite picks of the week, so I'll back Wisconsin at a spread of 3.5 or lower.