My best MLB player props today cover 10 different Rays vs. Brewers prediction markets to target. The Polymarket promo code (ACTION) is perfect to register with ahead of trading on World Series Game 1 this evening.
- Rays (98-64): Tampa Bay had the American League's best regular-season record and rallied from a 2-1 deficit to beat the Guardians 4-2 in the ALCS. Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA) is the expected Game 1 starter.
- Brewers (103-59): Milwaukee had baseball's best regular-season record, swept the Dodgers in the NLCS and hands Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts) the ball at home on 11 days of rest.
Here is every trade behind my best MLB player props today and home run predictions today, all priced on Polymarket, one of the best prediction markets offering World Series player props.
| ⚾ World Series Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) 1+ Hits | Yes | 68% | $143.85 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) 1+ Hits | Yes | 60% | $161.59 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) 7+ Strikeouts | Yes | 55% | $176.30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) 1+ Hits | Yes | 54% | $179.44 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jacob Misiorowski 4+ Hits Allowed | Yes | 52% | $186.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Junior Caminero (TB) 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs | Yes | 47% | $202.12 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| William Contreras (MIL) 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs | Yes | 46% | $209.52 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Christian Yelich 1+ RBIs | Yes | 35% | $77.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Junior Caminero 1+ HR | Yes | 15% | $563.56 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| William Contreras 1+ HR | Yes | 12% | $764.30 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Read our Action Network dedicated Polymarket review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.
Best MLB Player Props Today: Rays vs. Brewers World Series Game 1 Picks
These best MLB player props today are real Polymarket trades I submitted, each priced from a $100 buy ticket, and they cover everything from hit props to the best home run bets today. For a primer on the exchange, see our Action Netwotk guide to the best prediction market apps, and head to our MLB hub for more World Series coverage.
Here is how my best MLB player props today rank for Game 1, from highest to lowest implied probability.
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Best Hits Prop Today – Jackson Chourio 1+ Hits
| ⚾ World Series Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio 1+ Hits | Yes | 68% | $143.85 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Jackson Chourio leads off for Milwaukee, which gives him the most plate appearances of anyone in the lineup in Game 1. He hit a career-high .291 with 25 home runs and 23 steals in the regular season.
His October average is just .171 (6-for-35), so this price already accounts for the slump. He still leads the Brewers with seven postseason RBIs, a sign that his hits have carried weight even when they have been scarce.
Drew Rasmussen has a 1.29 ERA across 21 postseason innings, so this is not a bargain price. It is a high-floor prop on a proven hitter who should see the Rays' ace more than once.
The ticket is a $100 buy of Yes at an average price of 68¢. Each Yes share costs that price and pays $1 if Chourio records at least one hit, and Polymarket shows a $143.85 return on $100.
- If Chourio gets a hit: $143.85 total return on a $100 buy.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
That is roughly a 1.44x return on the stake.
Best Hits Prop Today – Christian Yelich 1+ Hits
| ⚾ World Series Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich 1+ Hits | Yes | 60% | $161.59 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Christian Yelich hit .235 with 12 home runs in 118 games this season, but he has bounced back in October with a .292/.370/.333 line. Milwaukee named him its first team captain in September.
He is the left-handed side of the Brewers' DH platoon, and a right-hander like Rasmussen is the matchup that role is built for. He is also in the projected Game 1 lineup at DH, batting fifth.
The lineup spot is the one real risk here, so confirm he is in the final lineup before you trade.
The ticket is a $100 buy of Yes at an average price of 60.23¢, with a $161.59 return listed on $100. A single base hit in any plate appearance settles it.
- If Yelich records a hit: $161.59 total return on a $100 buy.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
That is roughly a 1.62x return on the stake.
Best Strikeout Prop Today – Jacob Misiorowski 7+ Strikeouts
| ⚾ World Series Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski 7+ Strikeouts | Yes | 55% | $176.30 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Jacob Misiorowski led baseball with 252 strikeouts in 174 innings and a 1.80 ERA, and his 104.8 mph fastball against San Diego was the fastest postseason pitch since tracking began in 2008.
The concern is length. He failed to finish five innings in either playoff start, throwing 88 pitches in four innings in the NLDS and 94 pitches in 4 1/3 innings in the NLCS, because foul balls and deeper counts drove his pitch totals up.
Game 1 comes on 11 days of rest, and Tampa Bay's lineup has plenty of swing-and-miss, including Junior Caminero's 13 strikeouts in his first nine playoff games. If Misiorowski works into the fifth or sixth inning, seven strikeouts is well within reach.
The ticket is a $100 buy of Yes at an average price of 55¢. Polymarket lists a $176.30 return on $100 if Misiorowski reaches seven strikeouts.
- If Misiorowski reaches seven strikeouts: $176.30 total return on a $100 buy.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
That is roughly a 1.76x return on the stake.
Best Hits Prop Today – Jake Bauers 1+ Hits
| ⚾ World Series Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers 1+ Hits | Yes | 54% | $179.44 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Jake Bauers won NLCS MVP after driving in six runs against the Dodgers, and he carries a .441 on-base percentage through the postseason. He also broke into the majors with the Rays in 2018, so this is a return to his old club.
His regular season was the best of his career, with a .266 average, 26 home runs, 86 RBIs and a .389 on-base percentage. He bats cleanup in the projected lineup, right behind William Contreras.
Much of his October value has come from walks, and he has just one multi-hit game so far. That patience is why a one-hit line sits at 54% rather than higher.
The ticket is a $100 buy of Yes at an average price of 54¢. Polymarket shows a $179.44 return on $100 if Bauers gets at least one hit.
- If Bauers records a hit: $179.44 total return on a $100 buy.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
That is roughly a 1.79x return on the stake.
Best Hits Allowed Prop Today – Jacob Misiorowski 4+ Hits Allowed
| ⚾ World Series Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski 4+ Hits Allowed | Yes | 52% | $186.09 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
This is the other side of the Misiorowski story. He has not been hit especially hard in October and his fastball velocity is intact, but the pitch is generating fewer swings and misses because it has lost some induced vertical break.
That shows up as more foul balls and longer at-bats. Tampa Bay's top three of Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda can string hits together, and Diaz hit .333 with four doubles and two home runs in the ALCS.
His 0.80 regular-season WHIP is the counterargument. Still, a short, pitch-heavy outing against a lineup like this one leaves enough room for four hits.
The ticket is a $100 buy of Yes at an average price of 52¢, with a $186.09 return listed on $100. It can cash alongside the strikeout trade above, since one long start can include both.
- If Misiorowski allows four hits: $186.09 total return on a $100 buy.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
That is roughly a 1.86x return on the stake.
Best Combo Prop Today – Junior Caminero 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
| ⚾ World Series Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs | Yes | 47% | $202.12 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Junior Caminero played all 162 games and hit .276 with 42 home runs and 101 RBIs. This prop adds his hits, runs and RBIs into one total, so a single home run clears the line by itself.
He bats third behind Diaz and Aranda, which puts him in line to drive in or score runs without needing a hit of his own. His October has been quiet at .233/.303/.333, though he broke out with a two-run homer in the ALCS clincher.
His average swing speed of 79.5 mph is the fastest of any qualified hitter this season, and he hit two balls 110 mph or harder in ALCS Game 4. That makes a breakout the main upside here.
The ticket is a $100 buy of Yes at an average price of 47.74¢. Polymarket lists a $202.12 return on $100 if Caminero reaches two or more combined hits, runs and RBIs.
- If Caminero reaches the combined total: $202.12 total return on a $100 buy.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
That is roughly a 2.02x return on the stake.
Best Combo Prop Today – William Contreras 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
| ⚾ World Series Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Contreras 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs | Yes | 46% | $209.52 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
William Contreras has been the best hitter in the postseason, slashing .367/.457/.700 with a 1.157 OPS, three home runs and five RBIs in eight games.
He hit .270 with 18 home runs and 94 RBIs in the regular season, and his 89 RBIs as a catcher led the majors. He bats third, with Chourio and Brice Turang in front of him and Bauers behind him, so runs and RBIs are both live.
The market prices Caminero one point higher on this same prop despite Contreras' much stronger October, which makes the 46% price look fair to generous.
The ticket is a $100 buy of Yes at an average price of 46¢. Each Yes share pays $1 if Contreras reaches two or more combined hits, runs and RBIs, and Polymarket shows a $209.52 return on $100.
- If Contreras reaches the combined total: $209.52 total return on a $100 buy.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
That is roughly a 2.10x return on the stake.
Best RBI Prop Today – Christian Yelich 1+ RBIs
| ⚾ World Series Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich 1+ RBIs | Yes | 35% | $77.00 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Christian Yelich bats fifth in the projected lineup, behind Contreras and Bauers, the two hottest bats in Milwaukee's order. That spot should give him chances with runners on base.
His October slugging percentage is only .333, so most of his RBI chances will come on singles, groundouts and fly balls rather than extra-base hits. That is why the market sits at 35%.
The same platoon caveat applies as on his hits prop, so confirm he is in the final lineup before you trade.
The ticket is a $100 buy of Yes at an average price of 35.83¢. Polymarket flagged limited liquidity and listed a $77.00 return on $100, which reflects thin order-book depth rather than a clean fill, so re-check the quote when you open the ticket.
- If Yelich records an RBI: $77.00 total return on a $100 buy as displayed on the ticket.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
Because of that thin liquidity, expect the payout on this one to look different once you open the ticket.
Best Home Run Bet Today – Junior Caminero 1+ Home Runs
| ⚾ World Series Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero 1+ HR | Yes | 15% | $563.56 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
Junior Caminero hit 42 home runs this season and has 87 over the past two years, second in baseball behind only Kyle Schwarber. He has just one in the postseason, the two-run shot off Cade Smith in ALCS Game 6.
The Rays reached the World Series having hit only six home runs as a team in the playoffs, so the power has been scarce. Caminero's bat speed and exit velocities are why he remains their most dangerous long-ball threat.
A 15% price reflects both his quiet October and the quality of the arm on the mound.
The ticket is a $100 buy of Yes at an average price of 16.78¢. Polymarket lists a $563.56 return on $100 if Caminero goes deep.
- If Caminero hits a home run: $563.56 total return on a $100 buy.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
That is roughly a 5.64x return on the stake.
Best Home Run Bet Today – William Contreras 1+ Home Runs
| ⚾ World Series Game 1 Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Contreras 1+ HR | Yes | 12% | $764.30 | Trade it now on Polymarket! |
William Contreras leads all World Series hitters with at least 15 postseason at-bats in home runs with three, and he hit the go-ahead homer in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Padres. He hit 18 in the regular season.
The price is long because Tampa Bay's pitching is arguably the best Milwaukee has faced this postseason, with Rasmussen at a 1.29 ERA and the Rays staff at 2.59 as a team.
At 12%, this is the longest shot on the board, but it belongs to the hottest bat in the series.
The ticket is a $100 buy of Yes at an average price of 12.33¢. Each Yes share pays $1 if Contreras homers, and Polymarket shows a $764.30 return on $100.
- If Contreras hits a home run: $764.30 total return on a $100 buy.
- If not: the full $100 stake is lost.
That is roughly a 7.64x return on the stake, the biggest multiple on the board.
What's Moving the Market in Rays vs Brewers Game 1
The biggest swing factor on this board is Jacob Misiorowski. His regular season (1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts) argues for a big strikeout number, while his two short playoff starts explain why the 7+ strikeouts and 4+ hits allowed tickets sit close to a coin flip.
Lineup news is the next mover. Yelich's two tickets depend on a platoon role, and the Rays have officially confirmed Rasmussen as their Game 1 starter. But a late change on either side could shift hit props and home run predictions today quickly.
Finally, hot hands are priced aggressively. Contreras (.367) and Bauers have carried Milwaukee's offense, while Caminero's 15% home run price and Chourio's 68% hits price show how the market weighs season-long track records against small October samples.
That tension is what makes the best home run bets today so appealing at long odds. For live moves across the board, check the prediction markets hub.
How to Trade These Picks on Polymarket
Ready to get in on this board? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading my best MLB player props today:
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
- When you're ready, sign up with Polymarket promo code ACTION to get started!
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Final Thoughts on My Best MLB Player Props Today
World Series Game 1 offers a clean split: high-floor hit props on Chourio, Yelich and Bauers, volatile Misiorowski tickets, and long-shot swings on Contreras and Caminero. Together they make up my best MLB player props today.
If you want upside, the best home run bets today are Caminero at 15% and Contreras at 12%, and the strongest home run predictions today come down to whether Rasmussen can keep Milwaukee in the yard.
Whatever you trade, confirm lineups before first pitch and size every ticket to a stake you are comfortable losing.
FAQs
What Are the Best MLB Player Props Today for Rays vs Brewers Game 1?
My best MLB player props today run from Jackson Chourio 1+ hits at 68% down to William Contreras 1+ home runs at 12%, with Jacob Misiorowski strikeout and hits allowed tickets in between.
What Are the Best Home Run Bets Today in Rays vs Brewers?
The best home run bets today are Junior Caminero at 15% and William Contreras at 12%. Caminero has 42 home runs this season, while Contreras has three in the postseason.
What Are the Home Run Predictions Today for World Series Game 1?
Home run predictions today center on Contreras, the hottest bat in the postseason, and Caminero, who has 87 home runs over the past two seasons. Drew Rasmussen gets the start for Tampa Bay tonight, so the Rays' ace is the main obstacle for both.
Who Is Starting World Series Game 1 for the Rays and Brewers?
Jacob Misiorowski starts for the Brewers. Drew Rasmussen is the confirmed starter for the Rays this evening.
How Do I Use the Polymarket Promo Code for World Series Game 1?
Create a Polymarket account, complete a qualifying deposit, and enter the promo code when prompted. Then open the player prop you want and buy a Yes or No contract.
What Do the Hits + Runs + RBIs Combo Props Mean?
These props add a player's hits, runs and RBIs into one total. A Yes contract on 2+ pays if that combined total reaches two or more, so a single home run is enough on its own.
Why Is Jacob Misiorowski's 7+ Strikeouts Prop Risky?
He did not finish five innings in either playoff start, throwing 88 pitches in four innings in the NLDS and 94 pitches in 4 1/3 innings in the NLCS. He needs a longer outing than he has had in October to reach seven strikeouts.
How Much Can These Polymarket Trades Return?
Returns depend on the price you pay. On a 100-dollar buy, the board runs from about 1.4 times the stake on Chourio's hits prop to about 7.6 times on Contreras' home run prop.
