The Kalshi promo code ACTION55 is perfect to use on the LA mayoral runoff, and this Bass vs. Raman breakdown rounds up the Kalshi LA mayor odds.
- Karen Bass is the incumbent mayor and led the June primary with 34% of the vote, making her the first sitting LA mayor forced into a runoff since 2005, though 65% of likely voters still view her unfavorably in the latest Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll.
- Nithya Raman is the District 4 city councilmember who finished second with 29%, ahead of Spencer Pratt at 26%, and she led Bass by 11 points in the same poll series in September before this politics race tightened.
Here are the current Kalshi LA mayor odds from one of the best prediction markets. Sign up now with your offer, and claim your bonus to trade on LA Mayor prediction markets today.
| 🗳️ LA Mayor Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass to Win LA Mayor | Yes | 58¢ | $172.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Nithya Raman to Win LA Mayor | Yes | 43¢ | $232.56 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Read our dedicated Kalshi review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.
Kalshi LA Mayor Odds: Best Bass vs. Raman Picks Today
These are real trades on Kalshi LA Mayor odds, and you can compare more exchanges on our best prediction market apps page.
Use the Action NetworkKalshi promo code ACTION55 and Trade $25, Get $55!
LA Mayor Prediction Markets Today – Karen Bass to Win
| 🗳️ LA Mayor Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass to Win LA Mayor | Yes | 58¢ | $172.41 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
The case for Bass starts with her base. She finished first in June, she led Raman 41% to 21% among voters 65 and older in the September poll, and she has picked up a high-profile endorsement from Rick Caruso, the developer she beat in 2022.
She is also the likelier landing spot for Pratt's primary voters so far. In the latest Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll, 41% of them said they plan to back Bass, 14% said Raman, and 45% were still undecided. The counterpoint is her unfavorable rating and lingering criticism of her handling of the Palisades fire, which is why a 58% price still leaves real room for the other side.
A $100 buy of Yes at 58¢ works out to roughly 172 contracts, each of which pays out in full if Bass wins the election.
- If Bass wins the Nov. 3 runoff, the position returns $172.41.
- If Raman wins, the position loses the full $100.
That is a 1.72x payout on the Bass contract.
LA Mayor Prediction Markets Today – Nithya Raman to Win
| 🗳️ LA Mayor Prediction | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman to Win LA Mayor | Yes | 43¢ | $232.56 | Trade it now on Kalshi! |
The case for Raman rests on momentum with younger voters and on who turns out. In September she led Bass 64% to 12% among voters ages 30 to 39, and analysts have noted that a November electorate is typically larger and more progressive than the June primary one.
Her campaign also points to the latest poll showing her ahead among Latino voters, 43% to 40%, and to Bass's high unfavorable numbers. The counterpoint is that Bass has closed a double-digit gap in a month, and her campaign continues to attack Raman's record on police hiring and encampments.
A $100 buy of Yes at 43¢ works out to roughly 232 contracts, each of which pays out in full if Raman wins the election.
- If Raman wins the Nov. 3 runoff, the position returns $232.56.
- If Bass wins, the position loses the full $100.
That is a 2.33x payout on the Raman contract.
What's Moving the LA Mayor Prediction Market
This market has been jumpy. The Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll from mid-September had Raman at 39% and Bass at 28% with 33% undecided, and the poll fielded Oct. 19 to Oct. 25 had the two tied at 40% with 19% undecided.
Pratt's voters are the biggest swing block. With 45% of them still undecided in the latest poll, any late movement from that group could decide a race this close.
Prediction markets have repriced quickly around each new data point, and Kalshi's own market recap noted the favorite flipped three times in just ten days. The Los Angeles Mayor market has now passed $108 million in volume, so the price absorbs new information fast.
Turnout is the other variable to watch. Bass leads among older voters and Raman dominates among younger ones, so the age mix of the electorate on Nov. 3 could matter as much as any single poll.
How to Trade These Picks on Kalshi
Ready to get in on the LA mayor race? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading:
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the Los Angeles Mayor market on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
- When you're ready, sign up with Kalshi promo code ACTION55 to get started!
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Final Thoughts on the Kalshi LA Mayor Odds
The polls call this a toss-up, while the market leans Bass at 58% to 42%. That gap is exactly what makes the Kalshi LA mayor odds worth watching right up until the runoff.
If you want to trade the race, the Kalshi promo code above is the simplest way to get started. Prices reflect the market at the time of writing and can move quickly as ballots come in.
Neither contract is a recommendation on how to vote. Kalshi also lists related LA mayor markets, including margin of victory and voter turnout, if you want other ways to follow the race.
FAQs
When is the LA mayor election?
The general election runoff is Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, between incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman. Neither candidate cleared 50% in the June 2 primary, which is why the race went to a runoff.
What are the Kalshi LA mayor odds right now?
At the time of writing, Kalshi prices Karen Bass to win at 58 cents on the Yes side and Nithya Raman to win at 43 cents on the Yes side, which makes Bass the slight favorite. Prices move as new polls and news come in, so check the live market before you trade.
Who is favored in the LA mayor prediction?
The Kalshi market leans toward Bass, but the polling is much closer. The Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll from Oct. 19 to Oct. 25 had Bass and Raman tied at 40% among likely voters, with 19% undecided.
What is the Kalshi promo code for the LA mayor race?
The current Kalshi promo code is listed in the offer box at the top of this article. New users can claim it when they sign up through our link.
How do I use the Kalshi promo code?
Create a Kalshi account through our link, enter the Kalshi promo code during signup, and make a qualifying deposit. Full eligibility details are in the offer terms.
Is the LA mayor race partisan?
No. The office is nonpartisan, so every candidate appeared on the same ballot and the top two finishers advanced. Bass and Raman are both Democrats, while Spencer Pratt, a Republican, finished third in June.
How does a Kalshi LA mayor contract settle?
Each Yes contract pays out in full if that candidate wins the election and expires worthless if the candidate loses. The No side of each contract works the opposite way.
