NFL Prop Bets Today | Best NFL Player Props Today: First TD, Anytime TD Scorer Prediction Picks (Week 10)

The Polymarket promo code (ACTION) is perfect to use on Sunday's Week 10 games, and these best NFL prop bets today round up our 10 favorite trades from the live Polymarket board.

• The games we're covering run from a Vikings vs. Packers NFC North rematch to a Steelers vs. Bengals Sunday Night Football fight for first place in the AFC North.
• Our 10 picks include three spreads, two moneylines, two anytime touchdown props, one first touchdown prop, one rushing yards prop, and one passing touchdown prop.

Here is our full picks table from the best prediction markets, followed by a breakdown of every game, with our best NFL player props in start order.

Read our dedicated Polymarket review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.

Best NFL Prop Bets Today: Our Top Polymarket Picks for Week 10

Every pick below is a real trade we'd make on Polymarket, part of our best NFL player props today for the games we're covering. Not sure where to trade? Start with the best prediction market apps, then head to our NFL hub for more coverage.

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These best NFL prop bets today reflect Polymarket prices as of now, and every number can change before kickoff.

Vikings vs Packers Prediction

Minnesota brings a 6-2 record to Lambeau Field on a two-game skid, and Kirk Cousins returns to the stadium where he tore his Achilles in 2023 after the Vikings reacquired him from the Raiders. Green Bay sits at 6-3 and has won five of its last six, including a 45-27 road win at New England last week.

Minnesota beat Green Bay 39-22 in Week 1, so the Packers want revenge. Our Vikings vs. Packers game page has more on this NFC North matchup.

Best Moneyline Pick Today: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay owns the cleaner recent form, and its defense forces mistakes. The Packers hold 19 takeaways, second in the NFL, and they have produced multiple takeaways in six straight games.

Minnesota's offense hasn't topped 16 points in any of its last three games, and Cousins is still learning the playbook just days after the trade. Polymarket gives Green Bay a 60% chance and Minnesota 41%.

The risk is Minnesota's pass rush, which ties for the NFL high at 3.6 sacks per game and pressured Jordan Love all game in Week 1. Love still leads the league with 2,618 passing yards.

At a 60¢ price, a $100 buy gets you roughly 167 shares, and the ticket shows a Return of $161.84.

• If Green Bay wins: Return of $161.84.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 1.6x on the favorite's side of a division game.

Best Anytime Touchdown Prop Today: Justin Jefferson 1+ Touchdowns

Justin Jefferson scored twice against Green Bay in Week 1, but he has only five touchdowns in his last 23 games, so this price asks for a bounce-back more than it follows a trend.

Cousins and Jefferson spent four seasons together in Minnesota, and the Vikings need a spark after three straight games at 16 points or fewer. Green Bay's secondary, led by safety Xavier McKinney and his five interceptions, makes a deep shot tougher, but Jefferson needs only one trip to the end zone. This is our anytime TD scorer prediction for the Vikings.

At a 40¢ price, a $100 buy gets you roughly 250 shares, and the ticket shows a Return of $236.52.

• If Jefferson scores a touchdown: Return of $236.52.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 2.4x for a star who torched this defense in September.

Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction

Kansas City arrives at 6-2 after a 35-12 win over the Jets. Atlanta sits at 3-6 after losing four of its last five, and the Falcons traded safety Jessie Bates III and center Ryan Neuzil before the deadline.

The NFL's top two rushers meet in Atlanta, with Bijan Robinson leading the league at 880 yards and Kenneth Walker second at 872. Our Chiefs vs. Falcons game page has the full matchup.

Best Spread Pick Today: Atlanta Falcons +3.5

Polymarket has Kansas City laying 3.5 points, and the No side backs Atlanta to win or lose by three or fewer. The Chiefs beat the Falcons 22-17 in their last meeting, and Robinson gives Atlanta a ground game that can shorten this one.

Kansas City also monitors receiver Xavier Worthy, who hurt his hamstring last week. The Chiefs still rank second in the NFL at 384.1 yards per game, so this pick leans on Atlanta's home field and Robinson's workload, not on any weakness in Patrick Mahomes' offense.

At a 53¢ price, a $100 buy gets you roughly 189 shares, and the ticket shows a Return of $180.62.

• If Atlanta wins or loses by three or fewer: Return of $180.62.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 1.8x with the points in your pocket.

Best Rushing Yards Prop Today: Kenneth Walker 100+ Yards

Kenneth Walker averages 109 rushing yards per game, the best mark in the NFL, and he sits second in the league with 872 yards in eight games. He scored three touchdowns against the Jets last week and has scored at least two in five games this season.

If Kansas City protects a lead, Walker carries the ball late, and that game script fits a 100-yard day. The 100-yard line sits below his season average, which is why this price lands near a coin flip.

At 45¢, a $100 buy gets you roughly 222 shares, and the ticket shows a Return of $211.17.

• If Walker rushes for 100 or more yards: Return of $211.17.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of just over 2.1x on a back who already averages above this number.

Seahawks vs Raiders Prediction

Seattle (5-4) beat Arizona 17-3 last week and brings the NFL's top defense to Las Vegas, which allows a league-low 244.2 yards per game. The Seahawks have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 38 straight games, including the playoffs.

The Raiders (4-5) shipped Cousins to Minnesota and handed the job to rookie Fernando Mendoza, the top overall pick. Seattle starts Drew Lock for the second straight week with Sam Darnold out because of a quadriceps injury. Our Seahawks vs. Raiders game page has more.

Best Spread Pick Today: Seattle Seahawks -6.5

Seattle wins this one with defense. The Seahawks own the NFL's lowest yardage allowed and the league's best road record since 2024 at 16-4, and Mendoza faces safety Nick Emmanwori, who has blitzed 54 times, the most among defensive backs.

The four other top overall quarterbacks who made a first start in Week 10 or later all lost their debuts. The catch is the margin, since Lock must still produce points and the Raiders average 26.4 per game, eighth in the NFL.

At a 50¢ price, a $100 buy works out to roughly 200 shares, and the ticket shows a Return of $189.12.

• If Seattle wins by seven or more: Return of $189.12.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 1.9x on a coin-flip price.

Best Passing Touchdowns Prop Today: Fernando Mendoza 2+ Touchdown Passes

Mendoza took a slow path to the lineup, and word from the Raiders' locker room praised his practices in recent weeks. The Heisman winner who led Indiana to a national title now throws to Brock Bowers, the fastest tight end to 2,500 receiving yards.

Seattle's defense makes this the boldest pick on our board, but the price already reflects that. If the Raiders trail, they must throw, and a team averaging 26.4 points per game knows how to move the ball.

At a 32¢ price, a $100 buy gets you roughly 313 shares, and the ticket shows a Return of $294.09.

• If Mendoza throws two or more touchdown passes: Return of $294.09.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of nearly 3x for a rookie's first career start against the league's toughest defense.

49ers vs Cowboys Prediction

San Francisco enters Arlington with a 7-1 record and has beaten Dallas four straight times, including two playoff wins. The 49ers cruised past the Raiders 38-17 last week, while the Cowboys (4-5) edged Indianapolis 27-23.

San Francisco's receiver room runs thin, though Keenan Allen arrived in a deadline trade and Deebo Samuel could return from a hamstring injury. Dallas has run for 159 yards per game over its last three games. Our 49ers vs. Cowboys game page has more.

Best Anytime Touchdown Prop Today: George Kittle 1+ Touchdowns

George Kittle has five touchdowns on 38 catches and 483 yards through Week 9, and he drew at least three more targets than any teammate against the Raiders last week.

He caught six passes for 128 yards and a touchdown in the last meeting with Dallas, and a thin receiver group funnels looks his way near the goal line. This is our anytime TD scorer prediction for the 49ers.

At a 47¢ price, a $100 buy gets you roughly 213 shares, and the ticket shows a Return of $202.57.

• If Kittle scores a touchdown: Return of $202.57.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of just over 2x on San Francisco's most reliable pass catcher.

Best Moneyline Pick Today: Dallas Cowboys

Polymarket gives San Francisco 66% and Dallas 35%, and the Cowboys carry real momentum on the ground. They average about 100 more rushing yards per game over their last three than the three before, and Javonte Williams has 20 rushing touchdowns in his first 25 games with the club.

The obstacles are steep. The 49ers are the only team that has not allowed a 20-yard run this season, and Dallas has strung together wins only once in two seasons under Brian Schottenheimer.

At a 35¢ price, a $100 buy gets you roughly 286 shares, and the ticket shows a Return of $269.08.

• If Dallas wins outright: Return of $269.08.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 2.7x on the home underdog.

Steelers vs Bengals Prediction

Pittsburgh and Cincinnati share first place in the AFC North at 6-2. The Bengals bring a four-game winning streak and their best start since 2015, while the Steelers also won four straight and return from their bye.

Pittsburgh won the first meeting 30-27 on Sept. 27 when Derrick Harmon's strip-sack ended Cincinnati's final drive. Former Steelers coach Mike Tomlin sees his old team in person for the first time as an NBC analyst. Our Steelers vs. Bengals game page has more on this Sunday Night Football game.

Best Spread Pick Today: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5

Joe Burrow leads the NFL in completion rate, passing yards per game, and touchdown passes, and he has thrown at least three touchdown passes in each of the last four games. Cincinnati also ranks in the top five in red zone touchdown rate on both offense and defense.

Pittsburgh's counter is Jaylen Warren, who leads the league with 5.92 yards per carry against a Bengals run defense that ranks 25th and allows 5.04 yards per carry. A 3.5-point cushion is real in a rivalry game, so this price sits right at even.

At a 50¢ price, a $100 buy gets you roughly 200 shares, and the ticket shows a Return of $192.76.

• If Cincinnati wins by four or more: Return of $192.76.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of roughly 1.9x on a coin-flip price.

Best First Touchdown Scorer Pick Today: Ja'Marr Chase

Ja'Marr Chase has 32 catches for 435 yards and four touchdowns during Cincinnati's four-game win streak. He, Tee Higgins, and Mike Gesicki each have at least six receiving touchdowns through eight games, a feat only one other trio in NFL history has matched.

Only one player can cash this first TD scorer prediction, so the 13% price already reflects the Bengals' deep list of scoring options. Cincinnati converts 68.8% of its red zone trips into touchdowns, and Chase leads that group.

At a 13¢ price, a $100 buy gets you roughly 769 shares, and the ticket shows a Return of $710.53.

• If Chase scores the game's first touchdown: Return of $710.53.
• If not: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of just over 7x for the Bengals' top receiver in a first-place showdown.

What's Moving the Market for Week 10 Prop Bets

Prediction markets and prices can move for many reasons, and injury news carries the most weight on a Sunday with this many lineup questions.

Three of our spread plays sit at or near a coin flip. Cincinnati -3.5 and Seattle -6.5 both trade at 50¢, and Atlanta's cover trades at 53¢, which shows how evenly Polymarket traders split these margins.

At the other end of the board, Ja'Marr Chase at 13¢ and Fernando Mendoza at 32¢ carry the longest prices. Mendoza's number reflects a first career start against the NFL's top defense, while Chase's reflects how many Bengals can score first.

Late news on Xavier Worthy's hamstring, Deebo Samuel's return, or Michael Pittman's foot injury can shift prices before kickoff, so check the board again before you trade.

How to Trade the Best NFL Player Props Today on Polymarket

Ready to get in on these best NFL prop bets today? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading:

• Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
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📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Final Thoughts: Best NFL Prop Bets Today

Week 10 gives us five games and 10 trades, and the board leans on real edges: Green Bay's takeaway defense, Seattle's top-ranked defense and Cincinnati's red zone efficiency.

On the player side, our best NFL player props today pair a Justin Jefferson bounce-back and a steady George Kittle anytime TD scorer prediction with a workhorse in Kenneth Walker. Fernando Mendoza and Ja'Marr Chase, our first TD scorer prediction, supply the biggest swings.

Check the board again before kickoff, since injury news can reshape any price, and read the full terms before you trade.

Polymarket Promo Code FAQs

What are the best NFL prop bets today?

Our best NFL prop bets today include Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown, Kenneth Walker to rush for 100 yards, George Kittle to score a touchdown, and Ja'Marr Chase to score the first touchdown, all with live Polymarket prices.

What are the best NFL player props today for Week 10?

Our best NFL player props today span five Week 10 games. Kenneth Walker's 100-yard rushing prop trades at 45 cents, Fernando Mendoza's two-touchdown passing prop trades at 32 cents, and Justin Jefferson's anytime touchdown prop trades at 40 cents.

What is the best anytime TD scorer prediction today?

George Kittle at 47 cents and Justin Jefferson at 40 cents lead our anytime TD scorer prediction list for the games we're covering.

What is the best first TD scorer prediction for Steelers vs Bengals?

Ja'Marr Chase at 13 cents is our first TD scorer prediction for Sunday Night Football, and he has four touchdowns during Cincinnati's four-game win streak.

How does a first TD scorer prediction work on Polymarket?

The contract resolves Yes only if the named player scores the game's first touchdown. Every other outcome resolves No, so these prices run lower than anytime touchdown prices.

How does an anytime TD scorer prediction work on Polymarket?

The contract resolves Yes if the named player scores at least one touchdown at any point in the game, or the stated number of touchdowns for a 2+ market.

How do I use the Polymarket promo code?

Create an account, make a $10 deposit, and enter the Polymarket promo code ACTION during sign-up to unlock the $25 trading bonus, subject to the terms and conditions.

How do Polymarket NFL prop contracts resolve?

Each contract resolves Yes if the stated condition happens in the game and No if it doesn't. Moneyline contracts resolve on which team wins, and spread contracts resolve on the final margin. Each share pays 1 dollar when your side wins and nothing when it doesn't.

What does the Return column in the picks table mean?

It shows what a $100 trade returns if the pick wins, including your original stake, taken from the ticket's To Win figure.

Does this cover every Week 10 game?

No. These five games are the ones we're covering, and Polymarket also lists markets for the rest of the Week 10 schedule.