Patriots vs. Lions Player Props | Best NFL Prop Bets Today: Best NFL Player Props, First TD & Anytime TD Scorer Picks

The Kalshi promo code (ACTION55) is perfect to use on Sunday's Munich showdown, and these Patriots vs. Lions player props round up our best NFL prop bets today from the live Kalshi board.

• The Patriots are 5-4 after a 45-27 home loss to the Packers, where Drake Maye threw three interceptions, and they play without running backs Rhamondre Stevenson (knee) and TreVeyon Henderson (illness).
• The Lions are 6-2 and riding four straight wins, including a 19-9 victory over the Dolphins, and this game marks their first international appearance since 2015.

Here is our full picks table from the best prediction markets, followed by a breakdown of every pick, the game lines, and each player prop board.

Read our dedicated Kalshi review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.

Patriots vs. Lions Player Props: Best NFL Player Props on Kalshi

Every pick below is a real trade we'd make on Kalshi, part of our best NFL player props for this matchup, listed from the shortest price to the longest shot. Not sure where to trade? Start with the best prediction market apps, or browse more NFL coverage.

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Best Interceptions Prop Today: Jared Goff 1+ Interceptions

Jared Goff has thrown just two interceptions all season, but both came in the past two games, and the Lions offense took seven sacks over that stretch.

That price runs well above Goff's season rate, so this trade rests on the recent trend more than the full sample. Pressure explains the slip: Goff took four sacks against Minnesota and three against Miami, and throws under duress tend to produce turnovers.

At a $100 buy near 47 cents, this trade works out to roughly 213 shares, and the gap between that raw share value and Kalshi's stated $203.50 return reflects order book depth and fees, not an error.

• If Goff throws one or more interceptions: Return of $203.50.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

Just over 2x your stake on a number that sits close to a coin flip.

Best Anytime Touchdown Prop Today: Corey Kiner 1+ Touchdowns

New England's backfield looks thin. Rhamondre Stevenson, the team's leading rusher with 399 yards on 102 carries, is out with a knee injury, and TreVeyon Henderson is out with an illness.

That leaves second-year back Corey Kiner in line for the bulk of the carries. He has 50 carries for 244 yards this season, scored a rushing touchdown against Green Bay last week, and cleared 50 yards three times in nine games.

Head coach Mike Vrabel said Kiner still has to improve his recognition of pressure and his pass blocking, so the role comes with a catch. Even so, a lead back on a team that needs points carries real goal-line equity, and our anytime TD scorer predictions reflect that at 46 cents.

At a $100 buy near 46 cents, this trade works out to roughly 217 shares, with Kalshi's stated return at $209.45.

• If Kiner scores a touchdown: Return of $209.45.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

Just over 2x your stake on a back who just moved into the lead role.

Best Receiving Yards Prop Today: Amon-Ra St. Brown 100+ Yards

Amon-Ra St. Brown leads Detroit with 61 catches for 657 yards and has cleared 100 yards twice, with 142 at Buffalo and 153 against Green Bay.

He commands steady volume, with at least eight targets in every game this season, and Detroit now plays without receiver Tom Kennedy (knee).

The matchup adds to the case. Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez gave up 105 yards to Matthew Golden and 82 to Christian Watson against Green Bay last week, and St. Brown typically works from the slot.

At a $100 buy near 33 cents, this trade works out to roughly 303 shares, with Kalshi's stated return at $289.45.

• If St. Brown clears 100 receiving yards: Return of $289.45.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

Nearly 2.9x your stake on a target-heavy receiver in a favorable matchup.

Best Passing Touchdowns Prop Today: Drake Maye 3+ Touchdowns

Drake Maye has thrown 18 touchdowns in nine games and reached three or more in four of them, including a four-touchdown game against Las Vegas.

Kalshi prices the 3+ line at 26 cents, well below that four-in-nine pace. Maye threw three touchdowns even in last week's 45-27 loss to Green Bay, and trailing teams tend to throw more.

The risk sits with his targets. Romeo Doubs is out and A.J. Brown is doubtful, which thins New England's receiving group, and Maye ties for the NFL lead with 11 interceptions.

At a $100 buy near 26 cents, this trade works out to roughly 385 shares, with Kalshi's stated return at $365.65.

• If Maye throws three or more touchdowns: Return of $365.65.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

A return of better than 3.6x on a number Maye cleared in four of nine games.

Best First Touchdown Scorer Pick Today: Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs has scored in seven of Detroit's eight games, with nine rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns. He tops our first TD scorer predictions at 21 cents, nearly double St. Brown's 11 cents.

Gibbs leads the NFL with 60 scrimmage touchdowns since entering the league in 2023, and one more on Sunday ties Terrell Davis (61) for the most touchdowns by a player in his first four seasons.

Detroit leans on him even more with Isiah Pacheco out, and a Patriots defense that allowed 45 points to Green Bay last week gives the Lions a path to score early.

At a $100 buy near 21 cents, this trade works out to roughly 476 shares, with Kalshi's stated return at $451.21.

• If Gibbs scores the game's first touchdown: Return of $451.21.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

More than 4.5x your stake on the player the market likes most to score first.

Patriots vs. Lions Prediction: Moneyline, Spread and Total

Before the player boards, here is where this Patriots vs. Lions prediction stands on the base game lines. For the full matchup page, see our Patriots vs. Lions odds.

Kalshi prices Detroit at 58 cents to win outright, while the spread and the total both sit within a couple of cents of a coin flip.

Anytime TD Scorer Predictions

Our anytime TD scorer predictions below cover every player Kalshi prices for this game, running from the safest bet down to the deepest longshot.

• Jahmyr Gibbs (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 70¢): He has scored in seven of eight games this season.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 49¢): Detroit's top target has five touchdowns, though none in his past five games.
• Corey Kiner (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 46¢): New England's likely lead back with Stevenson and Henderson out.
• Jameson Williams (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 34¢): He has five touchdowns and averages nearly 17 yards per catch, so one deep ball covers this price.
• Sam LaPorta (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 31¢): Detroit's starting tight end and a short-area option in a pass game without Tom Kennedy.
• Hunter Henry (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 27¢): A tight end who gains looks with Romeo Doubs out and A.J. Brown doubtful.
• DeMario Douglas (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 26¢): A slot receiver who gains targets in the same thin New England receiver room.
• Mack Hollins (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 26¢): A big-bodied receiver who benefits from the same target shift.
• Drake Maye (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 24¢): Maye has rushed for three touchdowns this season, so he carries real equity as a runner.
• Eli Raridon (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 22¢): A tight end who also benefits from the thin receiver group.
• Lan Larison (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 17¢): A depth receiver in an offense short on wideouts.
• Efton Chism III (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 16¢): A depth receiver who could see extra snaps.
• Kyle Williams (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 16¢): Another New England wideout who could see extra snaps.
• Isaac TeSlaa (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 16¢): Detroit's starting outside receiver, and his chance jumped 11 points.
• DET Lions D/ST (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 15¢): Detroit's defense and special teams score on a pick-six, a fumble return, or a return touchdown.
• Sione Vaki (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 14¢): He sits second on Detroit's running back depth chart with Isiah Pacheco out.
• NE Patriots D/ST (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 12¢): New England's defense and special teams share the same scoring paths.
• Brock Wright (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 9¢): Detroit's second tight end.
• Jared Goff (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 7¢): Goff has one rushing touchdown this season, a one-yard score at Arizona.
• Jacob Saylors (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 7¢): Detroit's fourth running back, and he carries a questionable tag with a neck injury.
• DeAndre Carter (Anytime TD 1+: Yes 6¢): A deep-bench longshot.

First TD Scorer Predictions

Here is the full board of first TD scorer predictions, where only one player on the field can cash.

• Jahmyr Gibbs (First TD Scorer: Yes 21¢): The likeliest player on the board to score first, and our pick.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (First TD Scorer: Yes 11¢): Detroit's top target, priced at roughly half of Gibbs.
• Corey Kiner (First TD Scorer: Yes 10¢): New England's likeliest first scorer with both Stevenson and Henderson out.
• Jameson Williams (First TD Scorer: Yes 8¢): A big-play threat who needs only one deep shot.
• Sam LaPorta (First TD Scorer: Yes 7¢): Detroit's starting tight end.
• DeMario Douglas (First TD Scorer: Yes 6¢): A slot receiver in a thin New England group.
• Hunter Henry (First TD Scorer: Yes 5¢): A tight end with more targets available.
• Mack Hollins (First TD Scorer: Yes 5¢): A big-bodied red-zone option for Maye.
• Drake Maye (First TD Scorer: Yes 5¢): Maye has three rushing touchdowns this season.
• Isaac TeSlaa (First TD Scorer: Yes 4¢): Detroit's starting outside receiver.
• Lan Larison (First TD Scorer: Yes 4¢): A depth receiver for New England.
• Eli Raridon (First TD Scorer: Yes 4¢): A New England tight end.
• Kyle Williams (First TD Scorer: Yes 4¢): A New England depth receiver.
• Sione Vaki (First TD Scorer: Yes 3¢): Detroit's second running back with Pacheco out.
• Efton Chism III (First TD Scorer: Yes 3¢): A New England depth receiver.
• DET Lions D/ST (First TD Scorer: Yes 3¢): Detroit's defense and special teams.
• NE Patriots D/ST (First TD Scorer: Yes 3¢): New England's defense and special teams.
• Brock Wright (First TD Scorer: Yes 2¢): Detroit's second tight end.
• Jared Goff (First TD Scorer: Yes 2¢): A true longshot sneak.
• DeAndre Carter (First TD Scorer: Yes 1¢): A deep-bench longshot.
• No Touchdown (First TD Scorer: Yes 1¢): The field keeps a sliver of value if neither offense scores.
• Jacob Saylors (First TD Scorer: Yes 1¢): Detroit's fourth running back.

QB Passing Predictions: Best NFL Player Props for Goff and Maye

Our best NFL player props for the two starting quarterbacks focus on touchdowns, yardage, and turnovers.

• Jared Goff (Passing Touchdowns 2+: Yes 64¢): He has thrown two or more in five of eight games.
• Drake Maye (Passing Touchdowns 2+: Yes 57¢): He has reached two or more in six of nine games.
• Drake Maye (Interceptions Thrown 1+: Yes 54¢): He has thrown at least one in six of nine games and ties for the NFL lead with 11.
• Jared Goff (Interceptions Thrown 1+: Yes 47¢): Both of his interceptions came in the past two games, and this is our pick.
• Jared Goff (Passing Yards 275+: Yes 45¢): He cleared 275 in three of eight games, with a season-high 412 at Carolina.
• Drake Maye (Passing Yards 275+: Yes 43¢): He cleared it in three of nine games, including 374 against Las Vegas.
• Drake Maye (Passing Touchdowns 3+: Yes 26¢): Our pick, with three or more in four of nine games.

Receiving Yards Props

• Sam LaPorta (Receiving Yards 40+: Yes 55¢): A fair floor for Detroit's starting tight end.
• Jahmyr Gibbs (Receiving Yards 30+: Yes 54¢): He cleared 30 yards in five of eight games.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (Receiving Yards 80+: Yes 53¢): He cleared 80 in three of eight games.
• Jameson Williams (Receiving Yards 60+: Yes 48¢): He caught one pass last week in Miami, but averages nearly 17 yards per catch.
• Isaac TeSlaa (Receiving Yards 20+: Yes 45¢): Tom Kennedy is out, which opens more snaps for Detroit's starting outside receiver.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (Receiving Yards 100+: Yes 33¢): Our pick, with two 100-yard games this season.

Rushing Yards Props

• Sione Vaki (Rushing Yards 10+: Yes 61¢): With Isiah Pacheco out and Jacob Saylors questionable, Vaki sits second on the depth chart.
• Jahmyr Gibbs (Rushing Yards 90+: Yes 55¢): He cleared 90 yards in five of eight games.
• Drake Maye (Rushing Yards 25+: Yes 54¢): He ran for 25 or more in four of nine games.
• Corey Kiner (Rushing Yards 50+: Yes 43¢): He cleared 50 in three of nine games and now leads a depleted backfield.
• Jared Goff (Rushing Yards 10+: Yes 16¢): Goff has not topped seven rushing yards in any game this season.

What's Moving the Market

Prediction markets and prices can move for several reasons. On the baseline, the Patriots' win chance ticked up two points to 43%, while the Over on the 50.5 total slipped three points to 50%.

Among the player props, the biggest move belongs to Isaac TeSlaa, whose anytime touchdown chance jumped 11 points to 18%. Jahmyr Gibbs (down three to 70%) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (down three to 49%) slipped, while Corey Kiner climbed three points to 46%, even as his 50-yard rushing line fell five points to 44%. We can't say what drove any of those moves.

The injury report shapes much of the context for these Patriots vs. Lions player props. New England is without Stevenson, Henderson, and Doubs, and A.J. Brown is doubtful, while Detroit is also without Isiah Pacheco and Tom Kennedy. That tilts our best NFL prop bets today toward the lead backs and the top targets.

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• Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
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Final Thoughts: Best NFL Prop Bets Today

Detroit holds the edge on Kalshi's board, but both depth charts carry real injury questions, making player props a sharper place to hunt for value than the game lines.

That wraps our full set of Patriots vs. Lions player props. Gibbs leads both the anytime and first TD scorer predictions, Kiner steps into the lead-back role in New England, and St. Brown and Maye offer the longest payouts among our best NFL player props.

Patriots vs. Lions Prediction FAQs

What are the best Patriots vs. Lions player props?

Our top picks are Jared Goff 1+ interceptions, Corey Kiner 1+ anytime touchdowns, Amon-Ra St. Brown 100+ receiving yards, Drake Maye 3+ passing touchdowns, and Jahmyr Gibbs as the first touchdown scorer.

Who wins the Patriots vs. Lions prediction on Kalshi?

Kalshi prices Detroit at 58 cents to win outright and New England at 43 cents. The spread market centers on Detroit winning by more than 2.5 points, priced at 53 cents.

What are the best NFL prop bets today for Patriots vs. Lions?

Our five picks lean on the lead backs and top targets, with Goff and Maye covering the quarterback side, Kiner and Gibbs covering touchdowns, and St. Brown covering receiving yards.

What are the best anytime TD scorer predictions for Patriots vs. Lions?

Jahmyr Gibbs tops the anytime board at 70 cents, followed by Amon-Ra St. Brown at 49 cents and Corey Kiner at 46 cents.

Who is the best first TD scorer prediction for Patriots vs. Lions?

Jahmyr Gibbs leads the first touchdown board at 21 cents, with Amon-Ra St. Brown at 11 cents and Corey Kiner at 10 cents.

How do I use the Kalshi promo code?

Create an account, make a qualifying deposit, and enter the Kalshi promo code ACTION55 during sign-up to unlock the $55 trading bonus, subject to the terms and conditions.

How do Kalshi player prop contracts resolve?

Each contract resolves Yes if the player reaches the stated stat line in the game and No if he does not. Each winning share pays $ 1, and each losing share pays nothing.

Where do the Patriots and Lions play this game?

The teams meet at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, on Sunday morning, with FOX carrying the broadcast. It marks the Lions' first international game since 2015.