Vikings Super Bowl odds sit at 4¢ on both Kalshi and Polymarket, up from 3¢ on Kalshi earlier Tuesday, Nov. 10, after Minnesota sent a 2027 third-round pick to the Las Vegas Raiders for Kirk Cousins. The deal came together about 90 minutes before the 4 p.m. ET trade deadline, and it brings back the quarterback who started for the Vikings from 2018 through 2023.
You can trade that move yourself. The Kalshi promo code ACTION55 gets you "Trade $25, Get $55!" and the Polymarket promo code ACTION gets you "Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!" That's $80 in total from NFL prediction market promos to trade on Vikings Super Bowl odds, and both offers are live in Minnesota for NFL moves.
Vikings Super Bowl Odds After the Kirk Cousins Trade
Both prediction markets price the Vikings Super Bowl contract at 4¢, so the market gives Minnesota roughly a 4% chance to win it all. Each contract on prediction market apps pays $1 if the Vikings win the Super Bowl and nothing if they don't. You can also sell your position before the season ends if the price moves your way. Prices below are as of about 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 10, and the returns column assumes you hold to resolution, before fees.
| Market | Platform | Buy Price | $100 Returns About | Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl winner | Kalshi | 4¢ | $2,500 | Trade on Kalshi |
| Super Bowl winner | Polymarket | 4¢ | $2,500 | Trade on Polymarket |
| NFC champion | Kalshi | 8¢ | $1,250 | Trade on Kalshi |
| NFC North winner | Kalshi | 25¢ | $400 | Trade on Kalshi |
| NFC North winner | Polymarket | 25¢ | $400 | Trade on Polymarket |
| Make the playoffs | Kalshi | 75¢ | $133 | Trade on Kalshi |
The trade lifted the NFL odds but didn't set a new high. Kalshi's price history shows the Minnesota Super Bowl contract at a 3¢ ask at 2 p.m. ET, before the news broke, and at 4¢ by 3 p.m. ET. At 3¢, a $100 position returned about $3,333. Now it returns about $2,500. That puts the contract back in the 4¢ to 5¢ range it held in late October, before back-to-back losses dropped it to around 2¢. The Kalshi NFC North contract tells a similar story: up from a 22¢ ask at 2 p.m. ET to 25¢ an hour later, but still well below the 40s it reached in late October.
The Kirk Cousins Trade: What Minnesota Gave Up and Why It Matters
The price was one pick. Minnesota sent a 2027 third-round selection to Las Vegas, per reports from ESPN's Adam Schefter and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero. No other players or picks were reported in the deal.
The contract side is cheap for now. Cousins signed a one-year, $11.3 million deal with Las Vegas in April, per Spotrac, with a $1.3 million base salary this year. Minnesota's 2026 cap hit is $650,000. The bigger money comes later. A $10 million roster bonus is guaranteed and due on the third league day of 2027, and $80 million in 2027 and 2028 salary becomes fully guaranteed two days after that. That's a decision for March, not November.
The reason Minnesota made the call is simple. Its quarterback room ran thin. Kyler Murray, who signed this offseason and won the starting job, suffered a hamstring injury in the Week 8 loss at Detroit and is week to week. The Vikings had already traded J.J. McCarthy to the Giants on Sept. 28 for a 2027 fifth-round pick. That left Carson Wentz, and on Monday night he completed 8 of 25 passes for 81 yards with two interceptions in a 23-6 home loss to Buffalo.
Cousins gives this offense a real floor. In nine starts for Las Vegas, he completed 202 of 315 passes (64.1%) for 2,340 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions, a 97.1 passer rating. The Raiders went 4-5 in those starts, and his last one was rough: three interceptions in a 38-17 loss to San Francisco. With the trade, No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza is in line to take over in Las Vegas, and Kalshi traders are already eyeing Mendoza's Rookie of the Year odds.
The Kirk Cousins Vikings history is the other part of the appeal. Here's the record:
- 2018: Signed with Minnesota as an unrestricted free agent.
- 2018 to 2023: Six seasons as the Vikings starter, completing 67.9% of 3,081 attempts with 171 touchdowns and 55 interceptions.
- 2022 and 2023: Played in Kevin O'Connell's offense, the same system Minnesota runs now.
- 2023: His season ended with a torn Achilles.
- 2024: Signed a four-year, $180 million deal with Atlanta, which released him after two seasons.
- April 2026: Signed with the Raiders.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Minnesota hadn't named Cousins its starter for Sunday's Vikings vs. Packers game.
Can the Vikings Make a Super Bowl Run With Cousins?
The defense is why this is even a real question. Minnesota started 6-0 and was the league's last unbeaten team, and through nine weeks the Vikings have allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL and the second-fewest yards per game. The problem is on the other side, where they've scored a combined 21 points in back-to-back losses to Detroit (19-15) and Buffalo (23-6).
The division is a four-team fight:
| Team | Record |
|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 7-2 |
| Detroit Lions | 6-2 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-3 |
The Vikings are third because Detroit owns the head-to-head win from Week 8. If the season ended today, they'd be the NFC's No. 6 seed. They do already have wins over Green Bay (39-22) and Chicago (9-3), and both the Lions and Bears still have to come to U.S. Bank Stadium.
The schedule doesn't ease up right away:
- Sunday, Nov. 15: at Green Bay
- Sunday, Nov. 22: vs. San Francisco in Mexico City
- Sunday, Nov. 29: vs. Atlanta
- Sunday, Dec. 6: vs. Carolina
- Thursday, Dec. 10: at New England
- Sunday, Dec. 20: vs. Detroit
- TBD: vs. Washington
- Sunday, Jan. 3: at New York Jets
- TBD: vs. Chicago
So is a position worth it? At 4¢, a Vikings Super Bowl contract pays $25 for every $1 you put in if Minnesota wins it all. For that price, you get a 6-2 team with the league's best scoring defense and a quarterback upgrade over what it put on the field Monday. Cousins also knows this offense. The Vikings went 17-8 in his 25 games under Kevin O'Connell. The 49ers and Bills, both priced near 15¢ on Kalshi, set the bar, and a team with this defense and a steady quarterback is the kind that can close that gap.
Our read: take the Minnesota Vikings Super Bowl odds at 4¢. The price is back in the range it held in late October, before the quarterback trouble, and Cousins is the upgrade at the position that has held this offense back. You can sell the contract before the season ends if Cousins gets the offense moving. For a shorter-term way to trade the same idea, the NFC North contract at 25¢ is there too, with Minnesota already 1-0 against Chicago and Green Bay and home against Detroit in December.
Kalshi Promo Code ACTION55: Offer Breakdown
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| New User Offer | Trade $25, Get $55! |
| Kalshi Promo Code | ACTION55 |
| Minimum to Qualify | $25 in trades |
| Reward | $55 |
| Available States | AK, AL, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, ME, MN, MO, MS, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV, WY |
| Platform | Kalshi review |
| Last Verified | Nov. 10, 2026 |
Minnesota is on the list, so Vikings fans can use the prediction market promo at home. Kalshi isn't available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH or WA.
How to Claim the Kalshi Promo Code
- Click the ACTION55 link to go to Kalshi's sign-up page.
- Create your account and enter Kalshi promo code ACTION55 when prompted.
- Complete identity verification so your account can trade.
- Trade $25 to qualify for the $55 offer, subject to the terms at kalshi.com/tc/55.
- Search for the 2027 NFL Champion market and buy Vikings contracts, or head to the NFC North market.
Polymarket Promo Code ACTION: Offer Breakdown
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| New User Offer | Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus! |
| Polymarket Promo Code | ACTION |
| Minimum to Qualify | $10 deposit |
| Reward | $25 trading bonus |
| Available States | AK, AL, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, ME, MN, MO, MS, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV, WY |
| Platform | Polymarket review |
| Last Verified | Nov. 10, 2026 |
Minnesota is on this list too, so you can stack both offers. The Polymarket bonus only needs a deposit. No trade has to win for the $25 to land.
How to Claim the Polymarket Promo Code
- Tap the ACTION link to go to Polymarket's sign-up page.
- Create your account and enter Polymarket promo code ACTION when prompted.
- Complete identity verification.
- Deposit at least $10 to get the $25 trading bonus.
- Open the 2027 Pro Football Champion market and find the Vikings, or check the NFC North Division Winner market.
Bottom Line
The Kirk Cousins trade cost Minnesota a third-round pick and ticked the Vikings Super Bowl price back up from 3¢ to 4¢ within the hour. The defense is good enough to carry a team, and Cousins knows this offense better than anyone on the market. Whether that's enough in a loaded NFC North is what you're trading on.
Use Kalshi promo code ACTION55 and Polymarket promo code ACTION to claim $80 in total, then trade Vikings Super Bowl odds before Sunday's game at Lambeau.
Terms and Conditions
Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
