Saints vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Predictions - September 15, 2024

Proj: -7.6. For more, check out Fantasy Life.

We’ve loved this all week, was the first bet we talked about on the favorites podcast last Sunday night. Love Dak as a big fave, always hate Dennis Allen.

@ChrisRaybon

Over in 19-of-23 (83%) at home since 2021. 57 TD in 23g at home since 2021, 40 in 23g on road. Lattinore banged up

#ProSystem . dak home favs overs Overall: 32-18-0,64% (ROI:25%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

Chris Olave over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115 MGM/Fliff/Czrs) Olave is coming off a disappointing week 1 performance in a blowout win vs the Panthers, where he had just 2 receptions on 2 targets for 11 yards. However, I am liking him this week even with him going up against a tough opponent in the Cowboys in Dallas. Since the 22' season, Olave is over this line in 63% of road games, but where this line becomes very attractive for me to play is when I look at his hit rate in games his team loses. Game script can make or break a prop and I think in this game, we will see a Cowboys team at home, put Olave in a place to thrive. Let's break it down. The Cowboys looked good in their week 1 win on the road in Cleveland and had no problem putting up 30+ points against a very good Browns defense. This week they will return home and host the Saints who just blew out the Panthers in week 1. The Cowboys are currently a -6 point favorite to win this game and a heavy -270 on the ML. This sets up Olave to have a bounce back game in week 2 since I think the Cowboys win this game and force the Saints to throw to come back. In games where the Saints have lost the game, Olave has hit this line in a remarkable 82% of games. When you factor in him being on the road, that number climbs even higher to a 90% hit rate on this line. And when you add in him playing against a fellow NFC team, he has never missed on this line. Olave has gone a perfect 8/8 when he is playing on the road against an NFC team and his team loses the game. He had averaged 101.9 yards over those 8 games as well, so easily clearing this line. I brought up his targets in week 1, which he had just 2, but that was because they were kicking the shit out of the Panthers and did not need to throw the ball. Looking back to last season, in games where his team lost the game, Olave saw an average of 10.1 targets. I expect the Cowboys to come out and play well at home and make Derek Carr throw the ball to beat them, which plays into this line. For the Saints, there is no more Michael Thomas and Shaheed is really just a deep threat guy that catches about 1 long ball per game and that is usually it. That leaves Olave and Kamara as the main weapons of this offense and they can't just dump it down to Kamara for the entire game. The Saints use Olave in a lot of motions and like to get him moving around the formation, which helps him get free underneath and the occasional mid to deep route. Props.cash is projecting Carr to throw for 267 passing yards in this game and the last time he played Dallas, he torched them for 373 yards in Dallas. That was in 2021, so slightly different rosters, but he has seen a decent amount of this Dallas defense before. I think we get a perfect game script here and see Olave take advantage as the top option in the pass game for Carr.

@The_Oddsmaker

- W1: 5 REC/5 TRG - 7/11 in 2023 (40%+ snaps) W1 DAL led the league in pressures and AVG a 29.1% Blitz% before the 4Q (ranking them #10). LS they AVG a 30% Blitz% and were #10 in the league - Kamara leads NO with a 30% TPRR rate when Carr is pressured. Kamara vs. T12 Blitz%: - Covered 5/6 - AVG 6.5 REC/G - AVG 7.2 TRG/G Kamara vs. T12 in pressures: - Covered 3/4 - AVG 7.5 REC/G - AVG 8.75 TRG/G W1 Kamara AVG a -3.1 ADOT and 0.1 ADOT in 2023, which helped lead him to finishing 6/179 qualifying pass-catchers in REC%. LS when facing a T12 team in Blitz% he AVG a -0.4 ADOT. NO are +6 underdogs and when they lose, Kamara’s cleared this line in 6/7 games and his opportunity-based stats are night and day Wins: - AVG 3.5 REC/G - AVG 4.0 TRG/G - AVG 13.2 Routes/G Losses: - AVG 7.7 REC/G - AVG 8.7 TRG/G - AVG 27.1 Routes/G He’s seen 6+ TRG in 6/7 losses and when he sees 6 or more targets in a game, he’s cleared this line in 6/6 games w/ Carr. When Kamara’s faced a T12 team in Blitz% or pressures AND NO losses, he’s cleared this line 5/5.

🔬Caught 5 of 5 balls in game 1 🔬Playing from behind in this one with Derek Carr who loves check downs vs the cowboys that run a lot of 2 high safeties. (For comparison Carolina runs some of the least amount of 2 high and he still caught 5 on 5 targets in a game they were leading) 🔬Jerome Ford just caught 6 on 7 targets vs Dallas

Week 2 long shots! TAN pod best bets

47 at DK

Back to the well. Best price available. Down to +310 at DK and +250 at FD.

My model makes this -6.3 right on par. Think the model took to much into account for saints big week 1 win. Cowboys cover at home.

This is up from -6 on the lookahead, meaning we're not getting an overreaction to the Saints' Week 1 win. They looked great with Klint Kubiak as OC, and my priors were high on them entering the season. Even though I like Dallas, too, I think the Saints are undervalued.

One of the games @SimonHunterNFL and I discussed on Sunday night episode of Favorites pod. Line is already moving up, think New Orleans got too much credit for blowing out mistake-prone Panthers.