Ravens vs. Browns Odds & Betting Predictions - October 27, 2024

Chubb returned last week after that gruesome leg injury he suffered, but the Browns are trying to ease him back in, so he saw limited snap, playing just 36% of snaps. He struggled with 11 carries for just 22 yards rushing and that was against the Bengals who rank 21st in the league against the run. This week Chubb will face the Ravens who have the #1 run defense in the NFL and have yet to allow a 50 yard rusher this season. Rushers vs BAL this season: Pacheco 45 yards White 24 yards Dowdle 32 yards Cook 39 yards Brown 46 yards Moss 24 yards Ekeler 21 yards White 40 yards Irving 23 yards The Browns offensive line has been one of the worst in football this year in run blocking and while they get their starting RG Wyatt Teller back this week, they will be without their starting tackle, Jedrick Wills. The Ravens have been a great run defense, but it is their offense that has helped them out as well. This Ravens offense has jumped out to some big leads, which has forced opposing offenses to pass. The Browns are starting Winston this week, so I'm sure they will try and run the ball a little to help him out, but I think the Ravens as -8.5 favorites will get control of this game quick and force Winston to beat them through the air. Nick Chubb is a great back, but this line feels a little too high for just his 2nd game back and struggling last week vs one of the weaker run defenses in the league.

Njoku missed Weeks 2-4 with an ankle injury. He played less than half the snaps in his Week 5 return. Since then, he has been a usage monster. He leads the team with 21 targets and a 28% target rate over the past two games. Njoku has a massive 31.4% 1st-read target rate in this stretch. For context on those numbers, Brock Bowers leads tight ends with a 25.1% target share. Only 4 TEs are above 20% (Bowers, Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, Dalton Kincaid). The 1st-read target rate would be tied for 15th among all players, with a certain former teammate (Amari Cooper). It's a tremendous role and one that likely isn't going anywhere. The passing game can only get better with Jameis Winston under center. Cleveland continues to throw at borderline league-leading levels, ranking 2nd in pass rate and 4th in neutral pass rate. With Cooper now in Buffalo, Njoku is the clear top option. Baltimore has been one of the weakest pass defenses in the league. They've allowed the most passing yards per game, the 2nd-most yards per attempt, the 6th-highest QB passer rating, and the 6th-highest completion percentage over expectation. Tight ends have exploited this leaky secondary. The Ravens are giving up the 3rd-most targets and receptions to the position.

@TheBMatt

Medium pick for The Touchdown Show

Fliff

@ChrisRaybon

4.79% ev

CLE Browns +9.5 vs BAL (-120 @ MGM) Winston provided a spark to this offense in his one and only drive to finish the game vs CIN last week. We can at least move past this super conservative offense even when they are down. We should get a slightly larger workload from Chubb in his 2nd game back and the defensive matchups look pretty good for CLE. BAL allows the most passing yards per game this season (308.5), 2nd most passing attempts/game, 3rd highest yards per attempt, and tied for the 3rd most passing touchdowns allowed (14). Seemingly a good match for a gunslinger. The question is who is he throwing to? On that final drive he really spread the ball around, but Jeudy and Njoku were his top targets (as they should be). This season CLE runs man coverage at the 2nd highest rate, have allowed the 23rd most passing yards per game (206.6), are allowing the highest deep throw % in the league, have the highest pressure rate (42.5%) and hold the 3rd shortest average time to throw this season. What does this all mean? Well, they are a good passing defense. Add into this that this is a classic AFC North divisional game and you aren’t running to take the overs. Under leaning games tend to be closer. According to PFF, CLE's defense ranks 5th in pass rush, 1st in run defense, but 25th in coverage and 31st in tackling grades. This BAL team is built on the running game and if they can't get Henry going, the pass rush pressure might become a problem. If there is one team that can limit Henry it feels like it's this Browns defensive line. Finally, let's take a look at the last 4 games between these two: 11/12/23: CLE wins 33-31 10/1/23: BAL wins 28-3 12/17/22: CLE wins 13-3 10/23/22: BAL wins 23-20 12/12/21: CLE wins 24-22 11/28/21: BAL wins 16-10 12/14/20: BAL wins 47-42 So CLE has not only covered this spread in 6 of the last 7, but they have won 3 outright. In general these games have stayed within a FG or TD.

TAN pod / best bets

3.42% ev

Pass the Prop Collab 2 unit play

@ChrisRaybon

Raybon 1

Let’s get really ugly

Tailing Raybon. Jameis time.

#LuckRankings

Projecting Jameis to start due to DTR's finger injury, so I'd lose enthusiasm if DTR is able to go. But it's mostly about the Ravens, who have scored 28-plus points in 5 straight games.