Commanders vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 5, 2025

TD 🪜

The Chargers are a great matchup for QB rushing, allowing: • Most QB Rush Attempts • 2nd Most QB Rush Yards • 3rd Highest Scramble% • 5th Best in Coverage (PFF) • 7th Highest Pressure% Every QB to face LAC has gone over their rush yards line by 9+ yards: ✅ Dart 54 yds ✅ Nix 33 yds ✅ Geno 20 yds ✅ Mahomes 57 yds Both Deebo Samuel & Terry McLaurin are on the injury report too, if either or both miss I’d expect even more scrambles. I’m not worried about JD’s injury either, he mentioned multiple times that he feels great & is ready to go and could have played last week. Here’s what the coaches had to say about it, “I think that’s really why we were overly cautious with him, because we didn’t want to put him out there until he can be Jayden — and that’s what he’s gonna be, and that’s how he’s gonna play.” This is also his first time playing in his hometown. When asked about it, Daniels said: “I plan on having a lot of people attend the game, so that is the hometown and to be able to play back in my hometown as a pro, it would mean everything”

This was my favorite bet from the TD show (out now). The last two games (since Ekeler went down) the Commanders RB rotation has been straightforward: CRod is the lead early down back on the first two drives then backs up Bill on early downs the rest of the game. As a result, he’s seen 40% of his rush attempts in the 1st quarter and makes him a sneaky value in the 1st TD market. Projecting his fair odds closer to +950 based on his heavy 1Q usage.

Fading the obvious bounceback

Week 5 Lookahead: In my study of 3-0 teams this week, I came away pretty impressed by the Chargers. LA is 3-0, all within its division, and the Chargers were pretty dominant in each of those games. Washington, on the other hand, has felt aggressively mid. Just look at the quarterbacks. One is playing like an MVP right now, and the other one is barely playing at all. Jayden Daniels got hurt Week 1 and hasn't played since, and there's no guarantee he plays this one either, along with go-to WR Terry McLaurin. Washington has injuries all over the place. Will Harris is the only good safety on the roster. Veternans Jonathan Jones and Deatrich Wise are missing on the defense. Sam Cosmi has yet to play on the offensive line. These absences all add up, especially against a better team. Look at how the weekend may play out. The Commanders are in Atlanta and may not be healthy, with plenty of sharps on Atlanta. If Washington loses and drops to 2-2 while the Chargers run up the score on Jaxson Dart and the Giants en route to 4-0, there's no way this line stays below the key number. Jim Harbaugh is an incredible 80% ATS for his NFL career as a favorite of under six points, and there's still no more valuable key number than three. Grab Chargers -2.5 while it's available on the right side of the number.

@wheatonbrando Week 5 Lookahead https://myaction.app/QiU46AL9YWb