Our football staff is focused on seven of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 5 on October 5.
First, we'll focus on Cowboys vs Jets and Broncos vs Eagles in the early window. Later in the afternoon, we have a pair of predictions for Commanders vs Chargers and Lions vs Bengals. We also have picks for Raiders vs Colts, Titans vs Cardinals, and more.
Let's dive into our experts' NFL picks and predictions for the Week 5 Sunday slate.
NFL Predictions & Picks — Week 5
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Raiders vs Colts Spread Prediction
We finally got the long-awaited Ashton Jeanty breakout game as the rookie posted 138 rushing yards against the Bears.
However, he was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 15 of his 21 carries. These are the Boise State Jeanty numbers we all know and love.
I have to suspect that unlocking Jeanty in the run game will be able to open up the game through the air for Geno Smith and the Raiders.
The Raiders may be figuring something out offensively, and I am willing to bet that the Raiders keep this one close.
Pick: Raiders +7 (-115)
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Cowboys vs Jets Moneyline Pick
By Nick Galaida
On Monday, the Jets had a +18.4% Net Success Rate and outgained Miami by 104 yards.
This season, teams are 25-5 SU (83.3%) when they have a +8.0% Success Rate or better and 20-6 SU (76.9%) when they have 100+ Net Yardage.
The Jets are 0-3 SU with a +8.0% Net Success Rate and 0-2 SU when they have 100+ Net Yardage in a single game.
Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, Caleb Williams and Jordan Love have each posted their season highs in EPA per play against Dallas this season.
Justin Fields should be able to move the ball through the air.
If the Jets defense can have any amount of success slowing down Dak Prescott and company, this could be where we see the Jets get their first win of the season.
Pick: Jets Moneyline (+115)
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Broncos vs Eagles Spread System Pick
By Bet Labs
The system titled "Game in EST, Road team is PST/MST (First Five Games Since 2019)" backs traveling teams from the Pacific or Mountain time zones when they play in the Eastern time zone early in the season. In this case, we have the Broncos — fresh off a beatdown of the Bengals on Monday Night Football — traveling east to take on the Eagles.
In the opening stretch rosters are fresh, staffs build in extra preparation and acclimation, and body clocks have not settled into rigid weekly rhythms, so the long trip is less taxing than it becomes later.
The market still prices the old narrative that West Coast teams struggle in early Eastern kickoffs, which tilts numbers toward the home side.
With modern travel routines, sports science, and simplified early game plans, these visitors execute cleanly and either keep games inside the number or win outright.
The edge shows up in the first five outings of the regular season as freshness and planning outweigh the travel tax and create value on the road team.
Pick: Broncos +4.5 (-115)
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Commanders vs Chargers ATS Best Bet
By Kyle Murray
The Commanders are hurting quite a bit, as they are already going to be without three offensive starters, including Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown, and Sam Cosmi.
Jayden Daniels will be back, but Deebo Samuel has yet to practice this week.
The Commanders have to travel across the country to take on a tough Chargers team that is coming off of a bad road loss against the Giants.
Pick: Chargers -2.5 (-120)
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Titans vs Cardinals Total Prediction
These two offenses are a mess, making the under a great look in Week 5.
The Titans have scored just 51 total points through four games, and they have yet to exceed 282 total yards of offense in any game. Their defense is exploitable, but the Cardinals' offense is extremely flawed.
I've mentioned this since before Week 1, but the Cardinals simply have no offensive juice.
They have no speed or big-play weapons — even if they are scoring points, they have to dink-and-dunk their way down the field on sustained drives, which keeps the clock running.
Pick: Under 41.5 (-110)
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Lions vs Bengals Spread Prediction
By Erik Beimfohr
The Bengals basically admitted to quitting in their pathetic Monday Night Football loss to the Broncos.
Sure, they get to go back home this week, and the Lions have to leave the dome, but the Lions offense is going to name their score against this woeful Bengals' defense no matter where the game is played.
The Lions defense is much improved this season as they've gotten healthier. I'll lay the points with Detroit.
Pick: Lions -10 (-110)
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Patriots vs Bills SNF System Spread Pick
By Bet Labs
The system titled "Great Condition Divisional Road 'Dogs" works on the belief that divisional underdogs traveling in good weather early in the season carry hidden value.
In the NFL, division games are often tighter and more unpredictable because of the familiarity and rivalry factors, which narrow the talent gap.
When the visiting team is the 'dog in the first three months of the season, conditions are generally stable with limited wind allowing both teams to execute their normal game plans without weather being a major factor.
In these spots, the public often overvalues the home side, yet divisional familiarity and the motivational boost of playing a rival make the road 'dog more competitive than the line suggests.
Pick: Patriots +8.5 (-110)
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