NFL MVP Odds: Mahomes Lurking Among Favorites After Record Start

Sep 19, 2018 3:56 PM EDT
  • Following the first two weeks of NFL action, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes have all seen big jumps in their MVP odds.
  • With Carson Wentz having missed the first two games, his odds have taken the greatest hit of anybody else's in the league.
  • Two of the trendiest preseason picks, Deshaun Watson and Jimmy Garoppolo, have the second- and third-worst odds changes.

While we’re only two weeks into the 2018 NFL season, it seems like a lifetime. If you hold a Deshaun Watson MVP ticket, you feel like your life is over. Conversely, if you hold a Patrick Mahomes MVP ticket, you want the season to end today.

Nevertheless, that isn’t how this works. These odds can fluctuate wildly based on a performance in a single game. Of course, a terrific season can be ruined by an injury — just ask Carson Wentz bettors from last year.

Odds were not posted at Bovada last week (likely due to Aaron Rodgers’ injury), but they are finally back after a ghastly two-week dry spell.

Risers

Drew Brees: +1600 to +700 (+7.6% Implied Odds)

Surprisingly enough, it is Brees whose odds have risen the most over the first two weeks. The Saints haven’t been anything to write home about, as they lost to the visiting Bucs and nearly lost a second straight home game to the Browns.

However, don’t blame that on Brees. The 39-year-old vet has thrown for nearly 700 yards, five TDs and zero interceptions. He hasn’t been the best QB in the league, but we all know that he’s capable of putting up ridiculous numbers over the course of an entire season.

Aaron Rodgers: +500 to +350 (+5.5%)

Despite pulling a Paul Pierce wheelchair stunt in Week 1, Aaron Rodgers is still your MVP favorite. This is definitely a risky play right now, as he still isn’t fully healthy and could end up missing time at some point.

In fact, Bovada currently has a prop bet on whether Rodgers will start every game this season with “Yes” listed at +150 and “No” at -200. If Rodgers ends up missing more than a game or two, it’ll be hard for him to take home the hardware.

Patrick Mahomes: +3300 to +1200 (+4.4%)

Here he is. The TD-slinging QB extraordinaire. Mahomes definitely had some attention before the season began, as his odds went from +5500 to +3300 during the preseason.

He now holds the record for most TD passes through the first two games of a season with 10, putting a smile on anyone’s face who took him before Week 1.

He’s not quite in favorite territory yet because of his inexperience and youth, but he’s firmly cemented himself among the frontrunners in the early going.

Fallers

Carson Wentz: +700 to +3300 (-9.6% Implied Odds)

Get a load of this guy. Not playing the first two games, what a jerk. In all honesty, I’m not sure why his odds weren’t a bit worse to start out considering his health situation.

I doubt he had many buyers at +700, but he’ll have to dig himself out of a huge early hole to put his name in the hat.

Deshaun Watson: +1500 to +6600 (-4.8%)

Watson has not looked great since returning from his ACL injury. Neither have the Texans, whose Super Bowl odds have plummeted.

Watson’s Week 1 performance was very ugly. And even though Watson looked better against the Titans last week, the Texans lost to freaking Blaine Gabbert. Watson was one of the trendy picks in the preseason, moving from +2000 to +1500, but he’s now way behind the pack.

Jimmy Garoppolo: +1600 to +5000 (-3.9%)

It’s a very similar situation with Jimmy G as a young, trendy preseason QB’s odds have taken a major hit in the early going. Garoppolo’s success with the 49ers to end the 2017 season has not carried over one bit.

  • 2017: 96.2 passer rating, 260 yards per game, 67.4% completion%, 4-1 ATS in five starts
  • 2018: 77.4 passer rating, 234 yards per game, 55.9% completion%, 0-2 ATS

Maybe Jimmy G can turn the young QB MVP discussion on its head this weekend, as he heads to Kansas City to face off with Mahomes.

 

Credit:

Sep 16, 2018; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) greets Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) after their game at Heinz Field. Kansas City won 42-37. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
HOU
WAS
43
+3
42.5
+3
CIN
BAL
43.5
-4.5
43.5
-4
PIT
JAC
47.5
+6
47
+5.5
CAR
DET
50.5
+3
49.5
+4.5
DAL
ATL
47.5
-4.5
50
-3
TEN
IND
48
-3
50.5
-1
TB
NYG
52
PK
52.5
-2.5
OAK
ARI
41
-4
41
-5.5
DEN
LAC
47
-7.5
45.5
-7
PHI
NO
54.5
-9
56
-7.5
MIN
CHI
45.5
-2.5
44.5
-2.5
KC
LA
63.5
-1
63
-3.5