Updated 2019 NFL Draft Order, Odds, Projections: Raiders’ MNF Win Comes at a Cost

Dec 25, 2018 11:13 PM EST
Credit:

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jon Gruden

  • The Oakland Raiders beat the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football to move to 4-11. The victory bumped them from the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft down to No. 4.
  • The Arizona Cardinals are massive favorites to land the No. 1 overall pick after losing to the Rams on Sunday.
  • Check out to see the current 2019 NFL draft order, and the every teams' chances of getting the No. 1 pick, along with top-five and top-10 selections.

All the San Francisco 49ers had to do was lose — and keep losing — and the No. 1 pick would be theirs.

But noooooo, Kyle Shanahan’s crew had to get cute and actually pull an upset over the Seattle Seahawks last week, ruining their chances to get the No. 1 pick.

Note to the Arizona Cardinals and Oakland Raiders: You are bad at football, and a bad football team should be worried about one thing this time of year: maximizing its draft stock.

So, please, your fans beg of you: Just lose baby.


Below we’ve compiled the current 2019 NFL draft order headed into Sunday’s Week 16 games. We’ve paired those numbers with projection data from our Bet Labs’ simulations, which runs each team’s remaining schedule 10,000 times.

Draft order as of Sunday afternoon; odds as of Sunday morning.

2019 NFL Draft Order, Odds — Top 10

The Cardinals would have to seriously screw up to NOT land the No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft. They lost to the Rams in Week 16 and will be double-digit dogs in their final game of the season vs. Seattle.

Oakland looked primed to get the No. 2 pick, but its win against the Broncos on Monday Night Football bumped them down outside of the top three, benefitting the 49ers and the Jets.

The Jets blew a late lead vs. the Packers on Sunday, which will end up being a good thing for their draft stock, as it could land them a top-three pick.

Detroit is one of the biggest draft winners from Week 16, as their loss to the Vikings resulted in the Lions moving up from the No. 7 pick to No. 5.

The Bucs moved from ninth to sixth, and the Bills moved from 10th to seventh, as both teams benefitted from Jacksonville  beating Miami.

1. Arizona Cardinals (3-12)

  • Projected pick: No. 1
  • Chance to get No. 1 pick: 90.5%
  • Chance to get top-five pick: 100%
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 100%

2. San Francisco 49ers (4-11)

  • Projected pick: No. 2
  • Chance to get No. 1 pick: 1.7%
  • Chance to get top-five pick: 100%
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 100%

3. New York Jets (4-11)

  • Projected pick: No. 3
  • Chance to get No. 1 pick: 1.7%
  • Chance to get top-five pick: 100%
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 100%

4. Oakland Raiders (4-11)

  • Projected pick: No. 4
  • Chance to get No. 1 pick: 6.1%
  • Chance to get top-five pick: 96.7%
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 100%

5. Detroit Lions (5-10)

  • Projected pick: No. 5
  • Chance to get top-five pick: 67.9%
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 100%

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-10)

  • Projected pick: No. 6
  • Chance to get top-five pick: 17.8%
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 93.8%

7. Buffalo Bills (5-10)

  • Projected pick: No. 7
  • Chance to get top-five pick: 8.0%
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 89.1%

8. New York Giants (5-10)

  • Projected pick: No. 8
  • Chance to get top-five pick: 6.1%
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 87.2%

9. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10)

  • Projected pick: No. 9
  • Chance to get top-five pick: 2.7%
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 78.1%

10. Atlanta Falcons (6-9)

  • Projected pick: No. 11
  • Chance to get top-five pick: 0.9%
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 47.7%

2019 NFL Draft Order, Odds — Picks 11-20

With the Panthers shutting down Cam Newton for the remainder of the season, they have by far the best odds of any team on the list below of getting a top-10 pick (37.3%).

11. Carolina Panthers (6-9)

  • Projected pick: No. 10
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 81.8%

12. Cincinnati Bengals (6-9)

  • Projected pick: No. 12
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 14.6%

13. Denver Broncos (6-8)

  • Projected pick: No. 14
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 6.8%

14. Green Bay Packers (6-8-1)

  • Projected pick: No. 13
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 0.6%

15. Miami Dolphins (7-8)

  • Projected pick: No. 15
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 0.4%

16. Washington Redskins (7-8)

  • Projected pick: No. 16
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 0.0%

17. Cleveland Browns (7-7-1)

  • Projected pick: No. 17
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 0.0%

18. Philadelphia Eagles (8-7)

  • Projected pick: No. 18
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 0.0%

19. Indianapolis Colts (9-6)

  • Projected pick: No. 21
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 0.0%

20. Tennessee Titans (9-6)

  • Projected pick: No. 22
  • Chance to get top-10 pick: 0.0%

Currently in the playoffs

Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans
New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
Los Angeles Chargers
Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints (Packers own first-round pick)
Los Angeles Rams
Chicago Bears (Raiders own first-round pick)
Dallas Cowboys (Raiders own first-round pick)
Seattle Seahawks
Minnesota Vikings

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