2022 NFL Draft Props: Expert Likes This Garrett Wilson Bet Based On Mock Draft Predictions

2022 NFL Draft Props: Expert Likes This Garrett Wilson Bet Based On Mock Draft Predictions article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Garrett Wilson

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, finished with the eighth-most accurate mock draft in 2021 (per FantasyPros). He's back with his first-round predictions for the 2022 NFL Draft as well as his favorite bet among the props available.

2022 NFL Draft Props

Garrett Wilson Draft Position Over 9.5 (+104)

The first real chance of Garrett Wilson's name getting called is by the Falcons with the eighth overall pick.

They're -125 to target a wide receiver at FanDuel, where Wilson is the favorite to be the first WR off the board (-160) as of writing. However, neither of those bets are slam dunks as there's a ton of uncertainty as to when Wilson, Drake London and Jameson Williams will be drafted.

FanDuel has Wilson at +300 odds to be the No. 8 pick (bet $100 to win $300). Those odds sound about right when you factor in the uncertainty of which position the Falcons will target and what order the top three WRs will be selected (though I agree that Wilson is the most likely player the Falcons will draft).

Betting the over on Wilson's draft position essentially buys into that uncertainty.

The Seahawks draft at No. 9, and the last need they have right now is wide receiver. So if the Falcons don't take Wilson, this prop will likely hit. Wilson will likely be drafted at either Nos. 8, 10 or 11.

I would make the odds of over 9.5 around 60%.

2022 NFL Mock Draft

The above embed features color coding based on Koerner's projected chances of each player being the respective pick:

  • Green = 20%+ projected chance
  • Yellow = Wide range of outcomes for pick
  • Purple = Projected WR picks, order arguably interchangeable

And here are the results again in a more mobile-friendly table:

1JaguarsTravon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
2LionsAidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
3TexansDerek Stingley, CB, LSU
4JetsAhmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
5GiantsCharles Cross, OT, Miss St.
6PanthersIkem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
7GiantsKayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
8FalconsGarrett Wilson, WR, Ohio St.
9SeahawksEvan Neal, OT, Alabama
10JetsDrake London, WR, USC
11Football TeamJameson Williams, WR, Alabama
12VikingsKyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
13TexansJermaine Johnson, EDGE, Houston
14RavensJordan Davis, DL, Georgia
15EaglesTrent McDuffie, CB, Washington
16SaintsChris Olave, WR, Ohio St.
17ChargersTrevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
18EaglesGeorge Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
19SaintsKenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
20SteelersMalik Willis, QB, Liberty
21PatriotsDevin Lloyd, LB, Utah
22PackersTreylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
23CardinalsZion Johnson, IOL, Boston College
24CowboysKenyon Green, IOL, Texas A&M
25BillsKaiir Elam, CB, Florida
26TitansTyler Linderbaum, IOL, Iowa
27BuccaneersAndrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
28PackersQuay Walker, LB, Georgia
29ChiefsJahan Dotson, WR, Penn St.
30ChiefsDevonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia
31BengalsTyler Smith, OL, Tusla
32LionsNakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
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