5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Saints vs. Bucs on Monday Night Football, Including Tom Brady, Taysom Hill, Jarvis Landry
Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady.
The other two players on this most valuable list are probably flying underneath your radar.
We wrote earlier on Monday about the valuable spread pick for this contest, which fades teams based on sharp action.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Saints vs. Bucs on Monday Night Football
- Tom Brady under 40.5 pass attempts -115 (DraftKings)
- Adam Trautman over 2.5 receptions +114 (FanDuel)
- Jarvis Landry under 3.5 receptions +105 (DraftKings)
- Taysom Hill over 25.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings)
- Rashid Shaheed over 1.5 receptions +130 (DraftKings)
*Odds and data are as of Monday morning. These are the market's most valuable prices.
The most valuable prop for Monday Night Football's Saints vs. Bucs is on Tom Brady to throw for 40 passes or fewer.
Our models expect Brady to throw for about 37.5 times on Monday night. That gives the bet a roughly 16% betting edge.
Essentially, you're getting a 16% discount on the true price of that prop bet, according to our algorithms.
Saints tight end Adam Trautman has the second-most valuable prop for Monday Night Football.
While he's projected to have about 3.1 receptions tonight, according to Koerner's models, the best line on the market gives up o2.5 with a vig of +114.
In fact, the rest of the props go to Saints skill position players. Landry's under on receptions has a roughly 11% betting edge. The former LSU wideout is expected to net closer to three receptions on Monday night.
And Taysom Hill is expected to have 34 rushing yards tonight, on average. The best line on the market for the Saints gadget weapon is o25.5 (-115).
Undrafted rookie wide receiver Rashid Shaheed has the fifth-most valuable player prop tonight. The Saints wideout is projected to have closer to two receptions. His odds in the market give him plus-money vig.