5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Titans vs. Packers on TNF, Including Derrick Henry, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones
Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Jones.
The five most valuable props for Thursday Night Football’s Titans vs. Packers involve both running backs: Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones.
Henry leads the charge, especially against the third-worst rush defense in the Packers, according to DVOA. Already, his rushing yards prop has ballooned from its open at 97 to its current mark of 105.5.
And, of course, there’s a prop on Aaron Rodgers, too.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Titans vs. Packers
- Derrick Henry over 21.5 rushes -110 (PointsBet)
- Austin Hooper under 23.5 receiving yards -120 (DraftKings)
- Aaron Rodgers over 2.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings)
- Aaron Jones over 3.5 receptions +110 (DraftKings)
- Ryan Tannehill under 7.5 rushing yards -105 (DraftKings)
*Odds and data are as of Thursday afternoon. These are the market’s most valuable prices.
The most valuable prop for Thursday Night Football’s Titans vs. Packers is on Derrick Henry to rush the ball over 21.5 times. Our predictive analytics team thinks this line should be closer to 24.
That gives the bet a roughly 12% betting edge. Essentially, you can expect to make $12 for every $100 wagered in the long run on these types of wagers.
Another way to think about it: You’re getting a 12% discount on the true price of that prop bet.
Titans tight end Austin Hooper’s receiving yard under is the second-most valuable prop bet of the night, on account of what expects to be a rush heavy offense against the Packers’ shaky rush defense. Oddly, Green Bay has the eight-best pass defense compared to their 30th-best rush defense.
Hooper’s under 23.5 prop is currently at a roughly 11% discount. He’s projected to catch for about 19 yards tonight.
Henry’s running back counterpart Aaron Jones is expected to catch about four passes tonight. At a +110 vig, that gives his prop about a 7.5% betting edge.
The two quarterbacks have the most valuable props on their legs for Thursday night.
Aaron Rodgers is expected to run for about five yards, giving his over on rushing yards a solid 10% in value.
Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill is expected to rush for six yards, giving his line 6.5% in value.