Aaron Rodgers Trade Odds: Packers Favored To Retain QB, Broncos Next
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers Trade Odds
|Odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Monday and via DraftKings.|
Thursday afternoon was abuzz with anticipation of the 2021 NFL Draft when the football world was rocked by an Aaron Rodgers bombshell.
Sources told ESPN last Thursday that the reigning NFL MVP did not want to return to Green Bay, citing ongoing frustration with the team’s front office.
Rodgers has been with the Packers since he was selected in the first round of the 2005 NFL Draft. He spent his first three seasons backing up Brett Favre and has since earned three MVP awards, three first-team All-Pro awards, nine Pro Bowl nominations, one Super Bowl ring and the Super Bowl MVP award.
While the news came as a shock to the NFL community, friction between Rodgers and the Packers’ front office likely began on the heels of the 2020 NFL Draft when general manager Brian Gutekunst traded up to pick 26 in the first round to select polarizing quarterback prospect Jordan Love, who ultimately took zero snaps this season.
DraftKings (among other books) have since released odds to be the first team that Rodgers takes a snap for in 2021. Below are the top seven teams on the board — note that absent from those seven is one of the three teams on Rodgers’ rumored wishlist of destinations, the 49ers (+1600), who drafted former North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance after trading up for the No. 3 pick of last week’s draft.
Green Bay Packers (-150)
The Packers remain steadfast that they do not wish to deal Rodgers and are still the favorites to have him at the helm come Week 1 at -150 odds (60.0% implied probability).
The 37-year-old inked a four-year, $134 million extension in 2018, which puts him under contract until 2023. He carries a $37.2 million cap hit and $38.36 million dead cap hit in 2021, which makes it less likely that the Packers would be willing to part with him. His dead cap hit drops to $17.2 million in 2022 and $2.85 million in 2023.
Denver Broncos (+200)
Next on the list are the Broncos, who are listed at +200 odds (33.33%).
Denver was considered an initial favorite to land Rodgers, with Mark Schlereth characterizing a deal as “as close to a done deal as it can get” shortly before Round 1 of the draft began last Thursday.
The Broncos — who have been lost at quarterback since the departure of Peyton Manning in 2015 — did not pursue a signal-caller with the ninth pick of the NFL draft or with any of their 10 draft picks, instead opting for Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain UU and trading up for UNC running back Javonte Williams in the first two rounds.
Former second-rounder (2019) Drew Lock is the team’s current starter and has largely been considered a disappointment.
Las Vegas Raiders (+600)
After the Broncos are the Raiders at +500 odds (14.3%).
Rodgers is reportedly intrigued by the prospect of landing in Las Vegas, according to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler.
The top five quarterbacks in this year’s draft were already off the board once it was the Raiders’ turn to pick at 17, which they used to select Alabama tackle Alex Leatherwood. The team did not use any of their seven draft picks to pursue a QB and seem content with Derek Carr as their starter.
Still, Rodgers would be a significant upgrade from anyone on Las Vegas’ depth chart, which is currently led by Carr then Marcus Mariota and Nathan Peterman.
New Orleans Saints (+1000)
Carolina Panthers (+1100)
Miami Dolphins (+1400)
Washington Football Team (+1400)
Next up are the Saints at +1000 odds (9.1%), the Panthers at +1100 odds (8,3%) and the Dolphins and Washington Football Team at +1400 odds (6.67%) — all of whom have less than ideal signal-caller situations and did not pursue QB prospects in this year’s draft.
It remains unclear if either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill can fill the shoes of longtime Saints QB Drew Brees, who retired this offseason.
The Panthers parted ways with Teddy Bridgewater and added Sam Darnold, but would definitely be in the market to upgrade at the position should Rodgers become available.
Less than one season into the Tua Tagovailoa project have some already questioning if the former College Football Playoff national champion is franchise-QB material for the Dolphins.
Washington advanced to the playoffs last season with an underwhelming cast of QBs consisting of Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith and Kyle Allen. This offseason, Washington signed journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is unlikely to be a long-term solution at 38 years old.
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