AFC South Playoff Scenarios & Percent Chances: Titans Win Division, Colts Grab Wild Card

AFC South Playoff Scenarios & Percent Chances: Titans Win Division, Colts Grab Wild Card article feature image
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Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Quarterback Ryan Tannehill of the Tennessee Titans.

Last updated 7:40 p.m. ET

The AFC South title has been decided — the Titans won the division and will host the Ravens in the AFC Wild Card Round next week. Baltimore opened as a 1.5-point favorite at PointsBet.

The Colts won and thanks to Miami’s loss, reached the postseason and will play in Buffalo in the opening round. They’re a 4.5-point underdog at the Bills.

Tennessee would have been in even with a loss to Houston, but got a huge play from A.J. Brown in the final minute after the Texans tied it to setup a game-winning field goal.

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Titans Playoff Scenarios

Updated prior to the Colts’ and Titans’ games on Sunday.

Our Model’s Projection
To make playoffs
100%

The Titans are not only playing for a playoff spot, but also the AFC South crown. The Titans win the division with a win over the Texans or a Colts loss to the Jaguars.

If not as the division champion, Tennessee still gets a wild card spot because the Dolphins lost to the Bills.

Our model gave the Titans an 81% chance to get in before Sunday, and the betting market gives Tennessee a 76% chance to win against Houston, according to the implied probability from their moneyline.

Week 17 Odds
Bet Now At
Titans -7.5 at Texans

The Titans opened as 7-point favorites before moving to 7.5. The Texans say they’ll start Deshaun Watson if he’s cleared, but starting tackle Laremy Tunsil will miss the game.

Tennessee will try to wash out whatever happened in the snow last Sunday night in a 40-14 loss to the Packers.

» More On the Titans «

Colts Playoff Scenarios

Our Model’s Projection
To make playoffs
100%

The Colts now control their own destiny following Miami’s loss to Buffalo.

Indianapolis needed a loss or tie from Baltimore, Miami or Cleveland, in addition to beating Jacksonville.

Our model gave the Colts a 76% chance to get in entering Sunday, and the betting market gives Indy a 93% chance to win against the Jaguars, according to the implied probability from their moneyline.

Week 17 Odds
Bet Now At
Colts -14.5 vs. Jaguars

James Robinson is out for the Jaguars and Mike Glennon remains in at quarterback in the final game of the pre-Trevor Lawrence Era in Jacksonville.

As of Wednesday, 68% of bets and 96% of the money was on the Colts according to our NFL PRO Report.

» More on the Colts «
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