Cardinals vs Rams Picks, Odds, Spread: Expert Total Prediction for Week 6
Getty Images. Pictured: Joshua Dobbs (left) and Matthew Stafford (right).
Cardinals vs Rams Picks, Odds, Spread: Expert Total Prediction for Week 6
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +270 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -340 |
Cardinals vs. Rams odds for the Sunday NFC West clash have Los Angeles as a seven-point favorite on the spread, with a game total at 47.5 across most sportsbooks — except at DraftKings, where the over/under is 48.
The Cardinals have fallen on hard times since being surprisingly competitive over the first three weeks of the season. To make matters worse, they lost star running back James Conner to injury — he's on injured reserve and will miss at least four games. They face a loaded Rams offense led by Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and rookie sensation Puka Nacua.
Here’s everything you need to know about Cardinals vs. Rams picks, odds and the spread, plus an expert prediction for Los Angeles' team total.
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Cooper Kupp showed no signs of rust in his return from injury in Week 5. He made eight catches for 118 yards against a solid Eagles defense. Kupp should have no issues dominating again this week as he takes on a Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in dropback success rate (52.3%) and 29th in dropback EPA.
Matthew Stafford should be extremely comfortable in the pocket as the Cardinals rank 31st in pressure rate. Going from the Eagles' front seven to the Cardinals' will be a night-and-day difference, and I fully expect Stafford to capitalize on the extra time he has to throw the ball.
Arizona’s rush defense hasn’t been much better and ranks 30th in success rate against the run (48.5%). This is another edge for the Rams as they’ve been running the ball surprisingly well, ranking seventh in rush DVOA and sixth in rush success rate (44.2%). This is not the 2022 version of the Rams that had to rely on Stafford and Kupp being superheroes.
The Rams offense has multiple ways to beat opponents and will certainly have opportunities to produce plenty of points against Arizona. I expect Puka Nacua and Kupp to put up great numbers against an extremely weak Cardinals secondary.
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The Rams team total is at 27.5 at most books and I think that may be a bit short. Cardinals safety/nickel corner Jalen Thompson has yet to practice this week — if he can’t go, we are going to see a ton of Marco Wilson and Kei'Trel Clark. Wilson’s coverage grade is 100th out of 109 qualified corners and Clark is 91st, according to PFF.
Keep in mind that the Cardinals have already lost star safety Budda Baker to injury. If Thompson can't go, Arizona could be in a dangerous spot. Both teams rank in the top 10 in neutral game pace, so there should be plenty of possessions for the Rams to clear their team total.
The Cardinals offense has surprised, but suffered a massive loss last week when running back James Conner went down with a knee injury.
Conner was placed on injured reserve and will be out for at least four games. He was the second-highest graded running back in the NFL, according to PFF, and he was leading a run game that ranks ninth in EPA/rush. This offense is already devoid of talent, so losing any of its top producers is going to spell trouble.
However, there are definitely yards to be had against the Rams. Outside of Aaron Donald, there aren’t a lot of big names on their defense and that has showed through the first five weeks.
The Rams ranks 24th in EPA/play allowed and 27th in DVOA. The Cardinals will need to throw the ball to stay in this game, but I’m not sure Joshua Dobbs will be able to keep up with Stafford in a shootout.
Cardinals vs. Rams
Betting Picks & Predictions
It’s hard for me to envision the Cardinals defense getting many stops given the talent disparity between these two units. Stafford has looked solid all season, but he has been held in check to some degree because of a difficult schedule.
Los Angeles has faced the 49ers and Eagles, and those were the only games in which it failed to clear the 28-point mark. This feels like the week the Rams explode on offense.
I lean toward the Rams on the spread, but I prefer taking their team total over 27.5 as the easiest way to get exposure to this clear mismatch between the Rams passing game and the Cardinals secondary.
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