NFL Odds, Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Week 6 Sunday

Our team of betting experts has everything you need to know about NFL odds and best bets today, with four more expert picks for Week 6's late afternoon games on Sunday.

We have best bets featuring expert picks against the spread, on the total over/under, on a player prop, and even a same-game parlay.

Let's get to our NFL Week 6 best bets today for the rest of Sunday's afternoon games.

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NFL Odds, Best Bets Today | Week 6

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

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By Brandon Anderson

Unfortunately for bettors, value is often highest when we least want to back an ugly team. This feels like the nadir for the Patriots, with a litany of trends telling us there's value on an underdog that looks this bad. Some of my favorites:

• Underdogs that have scored 16 or less in three straight: 66% ATS
• Road teams after failing to cover by 24 or more: 62% ATS
• Underdogs of 3 or less that just lost by 11+ as favorites: 61% ATS
• Underdogs with an average margin of victory at -14 or worse Week 5 forward: 66% ATS

There are Bill Belichick trends too — 12-2 ATS (86%) after failing to cover by 22+ and 43-15-1 ATS (74%) as anything under -7.5 after a loss — but I'm not convinced they apply anymore at this stage of Belichick's career.

But those trends above are all team-agnostic. We don't have to buy New England or Belichick to play them as underdogs.

Pick: Patriots +3 (-115)

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By Anthony Dabbundo

Through five weeks, the Patriots have the worst offense in the NFL by EPA. The Raiders rank 24th.

New England’s inability to run the ball has been the most surprising facet of the offense thus far. Rhamondre Stevenson has seen his usage rate decline in favor of more Ezekiel Elliott carries, but neither has been effective.

The Patriots rank 29th in Rushing Success Rate and 32nd in EPA per rush. They’ve fallen behind early in four of their five games, which has forced them to throw the ball downfield and be more aggressive.

New England’s offensive line is 30th in pass block win rate offensively and while the Raiders don’t have a great pass rush, Maxx Crosby individually has elite pressure rates.

The Patriots defense may not have pass rusher Matthew Judon or CB Christian Gonzalez, but that didn’t stop them from a solid showing against the Saints' mediocre offense last week. New Orleans totaled 34 points in the shutout win, but the Saints had just six yards per pass attempt and 3.2 yards per carry. New Orleans scored 13 points on short fields from New England turnovers.

The Raiders offense remains quite one dimensional due to the inefficiency in the rushing attack, and the Patriots defense still has a high league-average floor because of Bill Belichick's game planning and scheming. This total shouldn’t be higher than 40.

Hopefully Jakobi Meyers doesn’t lateral the ball to a defender again this year.

Pick: Under 42

By Brandon Anderson

This game looked over all the way, and I was eyeballing the over 46 on Sunday night as the Hot Read but didn't trust my instincts. Now the line has risen with money coming in on the over, but I still like it.

I'm loving both of these offenses, but the defenses stink. I think we could get a shootout from two teams with little to lose. Three of five Cardinals games have seen at least 51 points, and the two games under were because Dallas and Washington's offenses no-showed. Arizona games are averaging 48.8 PPG.

On the other side, Cooper Kupp is back, and he looks like he didn't skip a beat. Kupp had eight catches for 118 yards in his season debut, but he didn't find the end zone.

Since Matthew Stafford joined the Rams, Kupp has 29 touchdowns in 31 games, including the playoffs. He's found the end zone in 21 of those 31 games (68%), so we're getting serious value at -120 (implied 55%), especially with Arizona missing both safeties.

I'm still not sure I have a great read on either of these teams, but I love the offenses and I'm expecting fireworks here.

A Kupp TD fits the script in what should be a high-scoring division game, so I'll play both together as a same game parlay at FanDuel at +203.

By Grant Neiffer

Even when he was splitting the workload with Cam Akers in Week 1, Williams has been the clear workhorse RB for the Rams this season.

In this game against the Cardinals, the game script should be solid for this bet. Williams has 77 carries through five games and 24 targets in the passing game. Head coach Sean McVay has always been a guy who relies heavily on RBs in the red zone, and this season has been no different for Williams.

The second-year RB has a solid 18 carries in the red zone to go along with seven targets, and he has also been used heavily inside the 10- and five-yard line.

Los Angeles matches up with the Cardinals, who have one of the worst run defenses in the league, ranking 26th in DVOA and allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game.

The Rams are a seven-point favorite here, and the total is solid. That should lead to a lot of points for the Rams, and I believe Williams is going to be a big part of that.

I would hit these odds all the way to -130.

Pick: Kyren Williams Anytime TD Scorer (-117)

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Previous Games, Picks

By Brandon Anderson

Do you remember the last time the Ravens played overseas? John Harbaugh does.

Baltimore's only other London game came in 2017. The 2-0 Ravens were blasted 44-7 by Jacksonville, the second-worst defeat in franchise history. Baltimore looked lethargic and lost. The Ravens had 20 yards on 20 plays in the first half, Joe Flacco finished with 28 passing yards and Baltimore went on to finish 9-7 and miss the playoffs because of that game.

Harbaugh was vocally upset about the international trip and seems to be doing everything possible to avoid a second London embarrassment. Baltimore has been sending supplies in advance since before the season, and the Ravens flew Monday morning to London to settle in and adjust, versus a Thursday departure for Tennessee. Harbaugh knows his team is better and is not going to let London derail another season.

London games can be weird, but they're also neutral-site games, and I absolutely want Baltimore -4 on a neutral field. Baltimore is 3-2, but should be 5-0 if not for goofy losses to Cleveland and Pittsburgh, so it's a great buy-low spot and a good chance to invest both in futures and present.

The Titans will struggle to score against Mike Macdonald's No. 2 DVOA defense finally getting healthy, and Baltimore is just better at everything. Add in the London history that should have this team adjusted and ready, and I expect the Ravens to get ahead early and roll.

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By Grant Neiffer

It's pretty clear that Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. are dust and won't be used heavily in this offense, and it's also pretty clear that Zay Flowers is the go-to guy. Flowers leads all Ravens pass-catchers in targets by a wide margin with 40 compared to the second-leading pass-catcher (Mark Andrews, 28).

Flowers has been solid so far this season with no less than 48 receiving yards in any game, and he draws a solid matchup vs. the Titans. The Ravens are a run-heavy team and while I expect them to still run often in this spot with Lamar Jackson, the Titans are a pass-funnel defense.

Tennessee has one of the better run defenses in the NFL, ranking eighth in DVOA and seventh in yards allowed per carry while ranking 27th in DVOA and 21st in yards allowed per pass in the passing game.

Flowers should get solid volume in this spot and always has big-play ability with his speed. The mix of volume and potential to break a big reception makes this line far too low. I don't hate the alt lines, either.

I would hit this line all the way to 62.5 yards.

Pick: Zay Flowers Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

By Derek Farnsworth

This pick is coming from one of the biggest Jaguars fans that you are going to find. Granted, the Jags are rare in nature and currently on the endangered species list, but there are a few of us out there.

After having an elite spot playing their second straight game in London against a team coming off of a big divisional win, the Jaguars return home on short rest to play two games in the span of five days with a Thursday Night Football matchup with the Saints looming in Week 7.

The Colts should have beaten the Jaguars in Week 1, and while I like Anthony Richardson, I would argue that Gardner Minshew gives Indianapolis a better chance to win games in the interim. He's one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league and just so happens to be facing his former team.

This feels like a field goal game either way, so I will gladly take the points with the Colts.

Pick: Colts +4

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By Brandon Anderson

The Jaguars are in an unprecedented spot, returning home from the first ever two-week NFL trip to London, and without a bye week to readjust body clocks after the schedule. Teams returning from overseas without a bye have tied or trailed at some point in the fourth quarter the following week in all 11 games in NFL history.

Jacksonville continues to underperform on offense, in part because its line has been terrible. The Jaguars rank bottom three in both pass and run block win rate and are missing their one bright spot with OT Walker Little out injured. The Colts defensive line has been terrific. They rank top 10 in both pass rush and run stop win rate and return a healthy Kwity Paye to DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, along with LT Bernhard Raimann, to dominate the trenches.

Anthony Richardson is out, but the Colts are 3-0 when Gardner Minshew plays half the snaps. This is also a nice revenge spot for Minshew against his old team.

Trevor Lawrence is 3-7 ATS as a favorite (30%), including 0-5 ATS as a favorite of four or more.

I'm betting against the Jaguars in this unprecedented spot. I bet Colts +5.5 on The Lookahead last Friday and again on The Hot Read Sunday night, so let's make it official.

I love the spot, I love the matchup and I think the Colts go to Jacksonville and break the voodoo and get an outright win.

Pick: Colts +4

By Anthony Dabbundo

Our first divisional rematch of the season is upon us.

First off, it’s quite shocking to me that the Jaguars didn’t take their bye week after two weeks in London. The Bills were quite flat traveling to London after their biggest win of the season the week prior, and it showed in first-half sluggishness.

I expect the Jaguars to be flat after a dominant two-week London trip that saved their season. The Jaguars took care of both Atlanta and Buffalo at their home away from home, but they're now at a rest and travel disadvantage.

Indianapolis’ injury report is a key one to watch ahead of Sunday. Based on the pattern emerging with concussions in 2023, I’d expect both top pass rusher Kwity Paye and left tackle Bernhard Raimann to clear concussion protocol in time for this divisional matchup. The Colts won’t have Anthony Richardson, which hurts the running game, but it’s very difficult to run on the Jaguars anyway.

The Jacksonville secondary has improved since the early portion of the season, but Gardner Minshew has shown that there’s not much of a drop-off in the play-to-play consistency of the Colts offense. There’s less explosiveness and upside without Richardson — Zack Moss’ long touchdown run last week happened because of two defenders accounting for Richardson in the read option — but Minshew can keep the Colts right around league average offensively.

Minshew ranks 17th in EPA + CPOE composite this year, which is higher than Trevor Lawrence. The Colts have more yards per play, fewer yards per play allowed and both offenses rank inside the top 10 in early down EPA per play.

I’d expect points in this game and since both offenses have had their red-zone issues — that should keep this game down to the final possession. I’d bet Indianapolis at +4 or better.

Pick: Colts +4

By Sam Farley

The success of Josh Downs has really flown under the radar, partly because of the drama around Jonathan Taylor and the hype surrounding Anthony Richardson, and also because of the performance of Michael Pittman Jr.

That's OK for us, though, and we'll be taking the over on Downs in Week 6. He's cleared 45.5 receiving yards twice already this season, both of which have come in the last three weeks. He's hit that mark in two of the three games in which Gardner Minshew has had significant time at QB.

Downs is a player Minshew clearly likes. The rookie has hauled in 23-of-33 targets for 255 yards, averaging 11.1 yards per catch. He is on pace for over 850 yards this season.

I'm expecting the relationship with Minshew to continue to flourish against a Jags defense that has allowed an average of 180 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs.

By Brandon Anderson

Seattle ranks in the top half of the NFL on offense, defense and special teams by DVOA, including top 10 both running and passing offensively. And now, its getting healthier after the bye.

The Seahawks offense is the best unit on the field and should run on a beatable Bengals run defense. Cincinnati is getting too much respect after a get-right spot against a bad Cardinals defense. Seattle should dominate in the trenches. The Seahawks rank top 10 in pass block, run block, pass rush, and run stop win rate while the Bengals are 20th or worse at all four and still bottom 10 in both Offensive and Defensive DVOA.

The Seahawks are playing great football and the Bengals are not. Grab the key number at Seattle +3 and don't be afraid to play the +134 moneyline, too. Seattle is flat out the better team right now.

This was one of my Hot Read picks on Sunday night, and there are still a few +3s in the market, so grab one if you're able.

It would be just a lean at +2.5 or shorter, where I probably pivot and play a half-unit on a plus-number moneyline instead.

Pick: Seahawks +3

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By Anthony Dabbundo

There are potential weather impacts in the forecast for this game with winds of 10-15 mph on Sunday in Cincinnati that should be monitored. The forecast kept this total from rising higher, but I think this is finally the time to buy low on the Bengals offense.

Seattle’s secondary has a lot of holes overall, the Giants just didn’t have the offensive line to protect Daniel Jones long enough to exploit it.

For all of the talk of the Seattle injuries on the offensive line, the Seahawks are ninth in pass block win rate offensively. The offense is also second in early down success rate, which has proven to be more predictive than high-variance late downs.

Despite some struggles on third down, Geno Smith is still moving the ball well overall. The Seahawks' quality offensive showing against the Lions looks better with each passing week, and Seattle has been the league’s worst offense on third down. I’m trusting the early down numbers to hold up and the late down numbers to regress closer to league average.

Another thing I like for this over: Both the Seahawks and Bengals offenses rank in the bottom six in second-and-long rush rate. They put the ball in the quarterback's hands and let them cook.

If you compare the NFL Next Gen Stats pass charts for Burrow in Week 4 against Tennessee and Week 5 against Arizona, you can see a noticeable difference in his ability to push the ball down the field.

Burrow was 1-for-3 on passes of 10+ yards down the field against the Titans. Last week, Burrow was 8-for-12 with three touchdowns and an interception. The willingness to even attempt those balls is a sign his health is improving.

Here's Week 5 against Arizona:

And here's Week 4 against Tennessee:

Pick: Over 44.5

By Sam Farley

The Bengals defense hasn't been great this season — giving up an average of 22.8 points per game — so I want to try and find the best way to attack that unit at a big price.

That might just be Noah Fant, who's perhaps underpriced given that he's only played three games this season, missing Week 1 and coming off a bye. However, Fant has 11 targets in his limited action.

Fant faces a Bengals defense that's given up more touchdowns to TEs than any team in the NFL that isn't the Jets. The Seahawks have an array of talent at receiver that could make Fant a dangerous red-zone threat against a defense that appears to have a weakness against TEs.

By Grant Neiffer

While Fields may have started the season as one of the worst QBs in the league, he's really turned it around the last few weeks with has 335 and 282 passing yards, respectively, over the last two games. The Bears appear to be playing more to his strengths, with more designed runs and play action.

I expect that to continue for Fields and the Bears moving forward, and he's not in a bad spot in what should be a close game against the Vikings, who have a below-average pass defense.

While I'm not expecting a massive game from Fields, this number is low enough to justify the over considering he's hit it in four of the five games this season.

I would hit this line all the way to 200.5.

By Brandon Anderson

C.J. Stroud continues to look incredible. He had an excellent late touchdown drive to take the lead against Atlanta and he could have another big game here. The book on Stroud out of college was that he struggled under pressure but was great when he had time.

Through five games, Stroud has a PFF grade of 36 out of 100 under pressure (31st of 32 starting QBs) versus 91 with a clean pocket (fifth). Well, the Saints are last in pass rush win rate, and Stroud hasn't taken a sack in three games. The Texans rank third in that metric themselves and should get after Derek Carr, who's still not playing healthy himself.

This is a great spot to back a home underdog and sell high on a Saints defense that's getting a bit too much credit for shutting out the corpse of Bill Belichick and beating up on Ryan Tannehill, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield and Mac Jones.

The Saints continue to struggle as favorites. Dennis Allen is 4-11-1 ATS (27%) as a favorite, and Carr is 17-32-1 ATS (35%) when favored.

Allen and Carr both have losing records straight up as favorites of five or less, with ROIs at 21% and 27%, respectively, on the underdog moneylines. I make this Texans -2.5, which typically translates to -150 on the moneyline, so I'll play for the +115 win here rather than a +1.5 cover.

By Anthony Dabbundo

For the fourth consecutive week, I’m betting the Texans.

The Texans defense did indeed struggle to slow down the Falcons offense last week, as Desmond Ridder had maybe his best game of the season. But it’s another feather in the cap of C.J. Stroud that he led the go-ahead touchdown drive so comfortably on the road in his fifth NFL start.

Let’s do a quick tale of the tape through five weeks:

• EPA Offense: Houston 14th, New Orleans 23rd
• EPA Defense: Houston 14th, New Orleans 2nd

• Opponent adjusted Series Success Rate offense: Houston 11th, New Orleans 27th
• Opponent adjusted Series Success Rate defense: Houston 22nd, New Orleans 2nd

I’m much more inclined to believe in the stickiness of the offensive numbers from Stroud and this offense in a small sample than I am in the Saints defense that is now going up against the best pass offense it has faced all season.

New Orleans is 32nd in pass rush win rate and rates as below average in Pro Football Focus' pass rush grades. Stroud should have time to throw and he’ll expose some holes in this Saints defense.

Catching points at home, I’ll take Houston any time. The Texans are also an excellent teaser option.