NFL Player Props, Anytime Touchdown Scorers: Week 6 Picks
Perry Knotts/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Evans.
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total or with player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Here's my look for NFL Week 6.
Week 6 Anytime Touchdown Previews
I’m sure there will be some Titans who might get loose and cause havoc, but this team is just not set up to face a defense like the Ravens. QB Ryan Tannehill is averaging a career low in passing completion percentage, while RB Derrick Henry is averaging a career low in yards per carry.
Outside of a flukey touchdown to maybe Treylon Burks or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, I’d rather invest in Ravens WRs like Zay Flowers. The rookie has double-digit targets in three of five games this season, and the Titans haven’t done well covering WRs this season.
Verdict: Bet Zay Flowers at +210.
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Polar opposite offenses will be on display in this matchup. On one hand, you have explosive Dolphins playmakers whose TD odds are all at a premium. Seven of the top eight options for ATD scorers are Miami players, with the seventh player only as high as +225. I’d probably just go down the list and bank on someone like Cedrick Wilson Jr. at +550. Wilson's snap rate has gone up in each of the last three games, and he saw four targets in Week 5.
I will die on the hill of betting opposing tight ends against the Dolphins. I know Darren Waller didn’t score but when he got looks (eight catches for 86 yards), he was effective. That’s why I’d likely go right back to the Panthers TEs in Hayden Hurst at +500 and Tommy Tremble for a sprinkle at +2000.
Verdict: Bet Hayden Hurst at +500 and sprinkle on Tommy Tremble +2000 for the vibes.
Colts QB Gardner Minshew isn’t the flashiest QB you’ll see, but he will push the ball downfield and can be effective. If he’s starting over Anthony Richardson, then there’s only one Colts player I want to bet: WR Michael Pittman Jr. He scored in Week 1 vs Jaguars and is back up to +225 in a matchup that could see him get 10 or more targets.
On the Jaguars side, don’t think you can go wrong with Calvin Ridley at this stage. Ridley caught a TD in Week 1 vs Colts, plays the most snaps and can take the top off of coverage as weak as the Colts.
Verdict: Bet Michael Pittman TD and Calvin Ridley TD.
Bad weather and wind could play a significant factor in limiting these offenses. I’d likely steer clear of this game even though the stats so far this season lend itself to a shootout.
If you still feel compelled to bet a TD prop for this one, just set it and forget it with D.J. Moore at +185. Coming off a three-TD game and five TD in his last three games overall, he can easily take one to the house on a short pass from QB Justin Fields. It also helps that the Vikings are dead last in the NFL in receptions and receiving yards allowed to opposing WRs.
Verdict: Bet DJ Moore TD at +190 but temper offensive expectations from weather.
This might be the “Welcome to the NFL” moment for QB CJ Stroud. This Saints defense has not been kind to opposing offenses and has only allowed five TD total from RBs, WRs and TEs this season. If you have to bet a Texans player, maybe throw a dart on Stroud at +450.
I know it’s chalky, but Alvin Kamara (+125) has looked fantastic since coming back from suspension. This is a game where Derek Carr will be looking for him often to bail him out in the red zone.
Verdict: Bet Alvin Kamara +125 and CJ Stroud at +450 if you need action.
This is totally the game where the random Seahawks TE scores. Take your pick: Noah Fant at +400, Will Dissly +550 or Colby Parkinson +550. If I’m picking from the three, I’d still lean to Fant but don’t feel great about it as he’s playing fewer snaps than Dissly/Parkinson, who are both better run-blockers.
I’m still quite down on Bengals TD scorers after getting burned from Weeks 2-4. Sure, Ja’Marr Chase had three TD last week, but this Seahawks pass defense is on the upswing with rookie CB Devon Witherspoon. QB Joe Burrow still had some shaky moments against Cardinals and was sacked three times.
Verdict: Find a Seahawks TE you like and sprinkle on Burrow TD at +500 just to be a troll.
I’m not sure what’s worse for the Browns, that they have to face the 49ers this week or that P.J. Walker is going to be the starting quarterback. Say what you will about Deshaun Watson (I know I have), but this is a massive dropoff at QB, which means all Browns players have inflated odds to score. Not to mention there’s rain and wind in the forecast. Not great, Bob!
The 49ers defense looks like it has no weaknesses so far in 2023. Throwing over the top of the defense is a sound strategy if you have the players to make it work but, again, it’s PJ Walker at QB. If you have to bet on a Browns TD scorer, take a longshot like TEs David Njoku at +650 or Harrison Bryant at +1000 and pray.
Even in a bad-weather game and strong run defense, RB Christian McCaffrey is still getting the -150 treatment, so I’d take a swing on Deebo Samuel instead. He’ll likely get short passes his way and a few red-zone carries to spell CMC. Outside of that, I’d steer clear of this game.
Verdict: Bet Deebo Samuel TD and sprinkle David Njoku and Harrison Bryant TD if you feel compelled.
Commanders vs. Falcons
I was dumbfounded when I saw the Commanders' TD odds. How does a sportsbook have odds for TE Logan Thomas and WR Curtis Samuel each at +400? These are completely mispriced and both should be lower than +300, especially since the Falcons are bottom-five in catches, yards and TDs to TE this season. As for Samuel, with his ability to be used in the red zone as a ball carrier and pass-catcher, I had expected odds around +275. I’ll gladly take the inflation here.
I just can’t get there with the Falcons. They might be able to have some success running the ball, but they’ll be running right into the teeth of Washington’s defense. That means you have to count on Desmond Ridder to make a throw. If that’s the case, just sprinkle on WR2 Mack Hollins at +450 again and hope for the best.
Verdict: Bet Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas, each at +400. Sprinkle on Mack Hollins.
A rematch of last year’s “Chandler Jones Pick 6” Bowl, the Patriots offense is even worse than the version that played Las Vegas in December. The Patriots have scored 58 points this season and only three in the last two games. I don’t feel great about this game at all for the Pats. Outside of Hunter Henry around +300, I can’t get there with New England players.
If you like a decent revenge spot, you can’t go wrong with WR Jakobi Meyers at +240. With three TD this season and double-digit targets in three of four games, QB Jimmy Garoppolo has shown he will gun it to Meyers when the Raiders are in scoring territory as the WR leads the team with seven targets inside the 10-yard line.
Verdict: Bet Jakobi Meyers TD and Hunter Henry TD.
You know the NFL is truly back for TD scorers when WR Cooper Kupp is at minus odds. After closing at +110 last week in his return, he had eight grabs for 112 receiving yards. Just off of that game, he’s back to -110. As a result, this means we need to pivot and start looking down the depth chart.
The natural reaction is to want to bet TE Tyler Higbee, who's yet to score but is playing more than 90% of snaps, but I’d consider backup RB Ronnie Rivers in this spot at +300. If the Cardinals finally play how they are on paper, this should be a Rams blowout, which would mean backups could get some work too.
Zach Ertz is the guy you want if you’re betting Cardinals TD scorers. Double-digit targets in three of five games, scored on a tough Bengals defense last week. The Rams have allowed three TD to TE in just the last two games, so I like Ertz to keep being featured in this offense.
Verdict: Bet Zach Ertz TD and Ronnie Rivers TD.
Lions vs. Buccaneers
The elephant in the room that a lot of bettors seem to overlook when discussing the Lions is Jared Goff at home compared to on the road. Since the start of last season, Goff only has eight passing touchdowns in 10 road games compared to 30 passing touchdowns in 12 home games. That's a stark contrast and worrisome given the Lions are playing on the road against a Tampa Bay team that has only given up four touchdowns total to WR, RB and TEs this season.
Another factor not boding well for Detroit is star rookie TE Sam LaPorta is banged up and may not play. That’s why I’d immediately pivot to TE2 Brock Wright, who played over 60% of snaps in Week 5 and caught four touchdowns in 2022.
If I’m betting a Buccaneers player, the only one I’d consider in this spot is WR Mike Evans at +175. He left the game in Week 4 to the Saints with a hamstring injury but is expected to play after being able to rest the injury during the bye. The fact remains that Evans is easily the most-talented WR QB Baker Mayfield has ever played with and he looks for him often, with 33 targets in four games. His three touchdowns this season are too hard to overlook when facing an overrated Lions secondary.
Verdict: Bet Mike Evans TD and Brock Wright TD.
Look, I just won’t bet on Jets TD scorers. The value has yet to be there this season with Zach Wilson at QB. His accuracy is a big issue when banking on players like WR Garrett Wilson or Allen Lazard.
Even the Eagles could have trouble moving the ball vs the Jets defense. New York is expected to get CB D.J. Reed back this week and that means the value on A.J. Brown or Devonta Smith just isn’t enough given the matchup.
Think this is one where it is best to just be a spectator and bank on some interceptions.
Verdict: Hard Pass.
Week 6 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Best Bets
Evans is easily the most-talented wide receiver that Baker Mayfield has ever played with. In four games, he’s been targeted 33 times and has scored three touchdowns.
The Lions secondary that Evans will be facing in Week 6 is overrated. It has allowed eight passing touchdowns this season, six of which were to wide receivers. Both Adam Thielen and D.J. Chart scored in garbage time against Detroit.
The Lions defense has been pretty decent against the run, and the Buccaneers can’t run the ball. Mayfield is going to have to pass and while I like Chris Godwin, Evans is my guy here.
Meyers has seen 36 targets in four games this season, playing mostly in the slot. The Patriots defense he’ll be facing isn’t what it used to be and is dealing with injuries in the secondary.
Bill Belichick is known for taking away the opposing team’s best weapons, which would be WR Davante Adams and RB Josh Jacobs here.
When the Raiders get into scoring territory, Jimmy Garoppolo has tended to look for Meyers. He has seven targets inside the 10-yard line, which is first in the NFL.
Unless you want to bet Adams at around +120, Meyers is the Raiders player to bet.
Also, this technically qualifies as a revenge game for Meyers.
I have two long shots this week.
First, Tremble. This is a case of the odds being too good and the matchup being one we can’t pass up. Last week, he had one catch for one yard on one target with one touchdown.
Much like the Lions last week, the Dolphins aren’t good against tight ends. Miami is tied with Detroit for the most touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends since the start of last season.
There’s blowout potential here, so a lot of passing should be expected for the Panthers offense. Also, Miles Sanders is out, which takes away a key goal-line weapon.
For Ingold on the other side, the Panthers have allowed an NFL-high nine rushing touchdowns this season.
Ingold hasn’t scored this season, but he’s heavily involved, having played the second-most snaps of any fullback behind Kyle Juszczyk. He scored twice last year, on the ground and with a pass.
No Devon Achane also creates more opportunities for run plays around the end zone. The potential for a blowout will also help Ingold here.
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