Those of you who have followed me for a long time should be familiar with my weekly NFL "BLSH" (Buy Low Sell High) plays. It’s a rather elementary approach to profiting from the extreme week to week market perception swings in a league filled with parity. The extreme popularity and magnified coverage provide a few opportunities each week to bet on the consensus overreactions influencing the market. Remember that nobody is as good or as bad as they look each Sunday, unless you are the Colts or Jets.
A potential BLSH spot occurs when a team who lost outright (and did not cover) the previous week plays a team that won outright (and covered) the previous week.
The above minimum requirement simply provides the potential BLSH plays for that week, but it is certainly not a science as I won’t play every spot. There are exceptions based on matchup intricacies, situational advantages, and a number of other potential variables. For example, there are four potential BLSH spots this week, but I am avoiding one team, who, along with the Colts, sits on my "DO NOT BET" list until further notice.
Now, let’s hold our collective noses and dive into the BLSH plays of Week 2…
1. Titans -2.5
The Titans are coming off a double digit home loss to the the Raiders, but I was actually impressed with a few of the things I saw. Tennessee simply lost the special teams battle in a statistically even game vs. one of the better teams in the AFC. (The Raiders had a 359-350 yardage advantage). They failed on an onside kick attempt to start the game, and Ryan Succop missed a Field Goal.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars rolled in Week 1 by essentially beating the Texans with their defensive line. Houston has one of the worst offensive lines in football, especially with LT Duane Brown continuing to hold out over a contract dispute. Do not expect more of the same this week, as Tennessee features one of the best offensive line units in the NFL.
The Jaguars also lost star wide receiver Allen Robinson for the year, which will especially hurt against the Titans. Robinson tormented the Tians in 2016, as he accumulated over 25 percent of his yards against Tennessee.
Look for the Titans to come into this divisional matchup with a little extra motivation. Jacksonville handed them a 38-17 beatdown in Week 16 last season, a loss that basically cost them a playoff spot.
2. Giants -3
The Giants looked horrific in Week 1, so you know I am excited to play them this week against a Lions team that benefited from four Cardinals turnovers in Week 1.
The Lions won at home indoors in Week 1, which they have done frequently in recent years. However, they have struggled mightily on the road, especially outdoors. Under Jim Caldwell, the Lions are 18-7 at home and 10-16 on the road. Additionally, the Lions have lost 10 of their last 12 games outdoors, including five straight.
New York, without the services of Odell Beckham, ran into a buzzsaw in Dallas, as their division rival was playing with extra motivation on opening night to avenge two losses in 2016. The extra day of rest should give Beckham the opportunity to play on Monday night. The Giants do still have issues on the offensive line, but they are a different team with ODB on the field. Even when Eli Manning doesn’t have time, he can get the ball out quickly to Beckham on short routes and let 13 do his thing from there.
The Lions’ special teams, which were a mess in Week 1, could play a major role this week on the road. Detroit is now down to their third punter and also have issues in the return game. Prater is really the only constant of the entire unit.
3. Redskins +3
The Redskins were not as bad as the final score indicated in their Week 1 loss to the Eagles. They were down by only one headed into the fourth quarter and had the ball down five late in the game before the Eagles’ defense scored on a strip six to extend the lead to 30-17. Washington could have easily won this game despite four turnovers (three fumbles lost and two turnovers in the red zone) and a number of critical dropped passes.
I threw out the Rams result last week as the Colts are the worst team in the NFL, by far, without Andrew Luck. The Rams should be concerned that RB Todd Gurley, who struggled last season, couldn’t find his legs against a limp Colts defense (20 carries for 40 yards). Jared Goff showed some flashes, but he still has a long way to go against teams that actually play defense. The Rams became the first team in NFL history to record a safety and two interceptions for touchdowns in the same game. Don’t buy into that final score against a weak opponent.
The Redskins have struggled defending the tight end position in recent years. This trend continued in Week 1 as Zach Ertz had a big day in Landover, but I don’t think Goff and his young tight ends will have the same success exploiting the gaps in the intermediate part of the field. I think Jay Gruden does just enough to beat his protégé Sean McVay, and the Skins escape LA in a tight one to get to 1-1 on the season.
Week 2 NFL Recap
- Titans -2.5
- Giants -3
- Skins +3
Scratched: Jets +13.5
BLSH YTD: 0-0
Other Pending NFL Plays:
- Packers +3
- Bengals -3
NFL Total YTD: 7-2