The Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers will face off in Week 1 of the NFL season. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa. The game will be broadcast live on FOX.
The Steelers are favored by -5.5 with the over/under set at 40.5 total points. The Steelers are a -280 favorite to win outright, while the Falcons are +230 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Falcons vs Steelers predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, September 13.
Falcons vs Steelers Prediction
- Falcons vs Steelers pick: Under 41.5
My Falcons vs Steelers best bet is on the under, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Falcons vs Steelers Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | +230 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | -280 |
Falcons vs Steelers NFL Week 1 Preview
Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview: Broken Wings
Atlanta’s defense is orchestrated by Jeff Ulbrich, who was retained as defensive coordinator despite a change at head coach with Kevin Stefanski.
Ulbrich’s unit struggled to stop the run at times a season ago, but they should have the green light to play downhill against the conservative nature of the Steelers’ passing attack.
Safety Jessie Bates is a key piece to the the Falcons' success — his late pre-snap motion as a versatile chess piece can disrupt passing lanes. This is especially effective versus a passer in Aaron Rodgers who is looking to get the ball out of his hands quickly.
Despite several new faces for the front seven of the Falcons, I expect Ulbrich to find ways to create pressure by committee if his defense can force the Steelers into long down-and-distance situations.
Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy will likely do everything he can to avoid such circumstances by executing a game plan featuring both Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle. This will test the Falcons’ deficiencies in stopping the run and it will keep the clock churning through the game.
There is plenty of uncertainty surrounding the Falcons offense.
Tua Tagovailoa suffered an oblique injury in practice on Thursday and will miss today's game. His lack of projected success was already baked into this line. Since the news of Cooper Rush getting the start under center, the total has dropped two points from 43.5 to 41.5.
If Rush does find himself running the Stefanski offense for the duration of this game, which seems likely considering the other option is rookie Jack Strand, Bijan Robinson will be the one carrying the offense on his shoulders.
Unfortunately, even the talents of Robinson may not be enough to get this unit to sustain drives. The Steelers ranked as the 8th-best defense in success rate defending the run a season ago.
Their defenders will also enjoy the benefit of completely focusing on stopping the Falcons' run game, as Rush has such a slim chance to make them pay for being ultra-aggressive.
Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview: Don't Expect Fireworks
Aaron Rodgers may be reunited with McCarthy, but do not expect him to change his style of play.
Out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Rodgers ranked second-to-last in success rate, only besting Cam Ward a season ago. Only 25% of Rodgers' pass attempts traveled further than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage — the lowest rate in the league.
Furthermore, 31% of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage — which was the league’s highest rate.
Rodgers puts a heavy premium on protecting the football and not taking sacks at this stage of his career. His risk-averse style obviously assists the offense in avoiding negative plays, but it does not mesh well with his top receiving threat — DK Metcalf.
Rodgers' average depth of target of only six yards down the field suits the skillset of newly acquired Michael Pittman Jr. much more aptly; however, Pittman missed a significant portion of training camp dealing with a hamstring injury.
It is more than fair to wonder how the chemistry will develop between Rodgers and his chain mover early in the season — I have my doubts.
Falcons vs Steelers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Cooper Rush made two starts in 2025 with the Ravens and scored 13 total points in those two outings. Rush threw no touchdown passes and averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt. He faces an uphill battle against a Steelers defense that returns every starter in its front seven.
The lack of explosive plays from both offenses will force each team to attempt to sustain drives by converting third downs at a high rate and avoiding penalties.
It is difficult to envision either quarterback making enough plays to lead their respective team to three offensive touchdowns.
I love the value of the under if this number stays at or above the key number of 41, but I am comfortably playing this total down to 40 at -110 or better.
Pick: Under 41.5; bet to Under 40
Spread
Because of the uncertainty at quarterback, I don't like playing the spread.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
As I mentioned above, the Under is my bet for this game.
Fun fact: In his career, Aaron Rodgers has faced a Kevin Stefanski-led team three times. The under is 3-0 in those games, going under the total by 7.3 PPG (per Evan Abrams).
