The Atlanta Falcons (3-4) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) will face off in NFL Week 8. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. EST from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Buccaneers are 2.5-point favorites over the Falcons on the spread, with the over/under set at 44.5 total points. Tampa Bay is a -136 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Atlanta is a +116 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Falcons vs Buccaneers predictions for today's NFC South game.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction
- Falcons vs Buccaneers pick: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)
My Falcons vs. Buccaneers best bet is Tampa Bay to cover the spread (-2.5), with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Falcons vs Buccaneers Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -114 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | +112 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -106 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | -132 |
- Falcons vs Buccaneers Spread: Falcons +2.5, Buccaneers -2.5
- Falcons vs Buccaneers Moneyline: Falcons +112, Buccaneers -132
- Falconsv s Buccaneers Total: 43.5
Falcons vs Buccaneers NFL Week 8 Preview
Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview
Michael Penix Jr. gets the ball out faster than almost anyone in the NFL (50% of his attempts are released within 2.5 seconds), and he has nine touchdowns to just one interception since returning in Week 3.
However, those surface numbers mask some serious flaws for the left-hander.
According to PFF, Penix has seven big-time throws against eight turnover-worthy plays — and even more worrisome, he sports a 31% completion rate and a 10% turnover-worthy play rate when pressured. Both of those marks rank last in the NFL.
Defensively, the Falcons' run defense is a complete paper tiger. Everyone was talking about how dominant they were against the run early in the year, but look at the schedule.
In the first four weeks, Atlanta looked good against the Steelers, Panthers, Packers, and Saints. But since Week 4, against tougher competition, the Falcons rank last in Rush EPA and 30th in Rush Success Rate. The Ravens rushed for 208 yards, the Bears rushed for 98 yards (with three touchdowns), and the 49ers rushed for 123 yards.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview
Tampa Bay might be the unluckiest team in the league. The Buccaneers are 1-5 in one-possession games against a brutal schedule, and they played three of those games with rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels.
Now, the Bucs are finally getting healthy defensively with Antoine Winfield Jr. and others potentially returning to the lineup.
You can safely assume head coach Todd Bowles will dial up the heat on Atlanta, play press coverage on the outside to take away Penix's first read, and force him into mistakes under pressure.
I trust this Tampa Bay defense, which ranks in the top five in DVOA against both the pass and the run. The Buccaneers are second in EPA per dropback and fifth in Rush EPA.
If you want to stop Atlanta, you have to stop Bijan Robinson, and this Buccaneers defensive front has excelled at stopping the run for years.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Buccaneers are staring down a brutal upcoming road schedule with Detroit and Chicago coming up next. So, we are going to see them throw the kitchen sink at this crucial divisional home game.
To avoid falling to 2-6, expect Todd Bowles to relentlessly pressure a quarterback in Michael Penix Jr. who grades out as the worst in the NFL when forced to navigate a collapsing pocket.
Pick: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)
