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The Cleveland Browns (5-2) and Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) meet today in an NFL Week 8 AFC North battle. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Steelers are favored by -3.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 39.5 total points. The Steelers are -196 on the moneyline while the Browns are +164 underdogs.
Let's get into my Browns vs Steelers predictions for Sunday, November, 1.
Browns vs Steelers Prediction
- Browns vs Steelers pick: Steelers -3.5 (-115)
My Browns vs Steelers best bet is Pittsburgh to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Browns vs Steelers Odds
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 39.5 -105o / -115u | +164 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 39.5 -105o / -115u | -196 |
- Browns vs Steelers Moneyline: Browns +164, Steelers -196
- Browns vs Steelers Spread: Browns +3.5, Steelers -3.5
- Browns vs Steelers Total: 39.5
Browns vs Steelers NFL Week 8 Preview
The Browns and Steelers jockeying for the division lead in Week 8 felt very unlikely prior to the season beginning. These two teams have met once already this season, back in Week 4, with Cleveland winning 27-24 in a highly competitive game that saw a separation of just 11 total yards.
The Browns being in position to compete for the AFC North title is undoubtedly the most surprising result of the NFL season thus far, but their standing in the division may not last too much longer. Cleveland has led for just 20% of its offensive snaps — the lowest rate in the NFL for any team with a winning record.
Cleveland’s defense showed its hand in its first meeting with the Steelers — playing man coverage on over 70% of defensive snaps. That is an extremely high rate for a single game, and I expect Aaron Rodgers to be much more prepared this time around.
With that said, I have a difficult time envisioning the Cleveland defense forcing Rodgers into long-distance situations often enough to generate the constant pressure that is the 41-year-old's kryptonite.
The Browns defense remains the reason they have been in position to pull out improbable victories late in games, but we are starting to see some signs they can be exploited by efficient ground attacks. A week ago, Tony Pollard averaged 5.2 yards per carry, and the week prior, the Colts' top duo of backs averaged 4.8 yards per rush.
The Browns rank 29th in yards per carry allowed and they are consistently gashed by explosive runs of 10 or more yards. No defense in the league surrenders explosive rushes more often than Cleveland. Furthermore, the matchup with the Steelers favors the ground game of Pittsburgh, led by Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle.
In the first Cleveland-Pittsburgh game, the Steelers attempted 40 passes to only 19 rushes. I expect a more balanced attack from Mike McCarthy in the rematch. The Steelers are excellent with their zone-blocking rushing concepts, ranking fifth league-wide in yards per carry on such concepts through seven games.
The Browns defense has been inadequate at defending against zone rushing concepts this year — only one team has been worse this season on an expected points added (EPA) per play basis.
The Steelers have the clear advantage on both sides of the ground game.
Quinshon Judkins is coming off his best game of the season. However, this matchup with the Pittsburgh front seven is much more difficult. The Steelers defense is currently playing the run at an incredible level.
Last week in Paris, Patrick Graham’s defense completely shut down the Saints’ running game. New Orleans ran the football 17 times for 18 yards. Pittsburgh allows just 3.6 yards per carry for the season, ranking fourth in success rate allowed.
Deshaun Watson will be tasked with making plays consistently if his team is going to move the chains and sustain drives without the benefit of an effective running game. Watson’s turnover-worthy throw rate nearly doubles his big-time throw rate.
In fact, when he is called upon to push the ball down the field, it has not been pretty. Watson has 58 attempts traveling more than 10 yards downfield — he's completed just 43% of those passes.
Browns vs Steelers Prediction, Betting Analysis
On the surface, backing the team catching more than a field goal in a game with a total below 40 feels quite enticing. However, this is a very good spot for the home team to even up the season series. The difference could very well be the success of the Steelers in the red zone.
Pittsburgh’s ranking of 27th in red-area touchdown conversion rate goes hand in hand with its league-high passing rate when inside the 20. In this game, the Steelers' ability to slash through the Browns defense on the ground will make it much easier to convert scoring opportunities into points.
The Browns have just two wins in Pittsburgh this century. They won’t be bucking this trend today.
Late-game heroics won’t be needed on either side this week as I project the Steelers to win comfortably. Aaron Rodgers has historically been a very good bet to perform better when he sees a team for a second time in the same season, especially when his team suffered a loss in the first meeting. I am willing to back Rodgers' Steelers up to -4 this week.
Pick: Steelers -3.5 (-115)
