Last week we celebrated National Tight Ends Day with a bevy of bets, but for Week 8, we're giving the TEs a bye week.
Instead, we are pivoting heavily to the running backs, alongside some more traditional, straightforward spots.
Oh, and we have a Ravens-Bills extravaganza that is so good, it will be a standalone article with 10+ picks for that game alone! I'm also covering the betting guide for Eagles vs Commanders on Sunday Night Football.
But first, let's get into my NFL Week 8 Mega Preview, as well as a lookahead bet for next week.
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NFL Week 8 Picks, Props, Same-Game Parlays
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Cowboys vs Cardinals
Cowboys–Cardinals used to be a division rivalry, and it remains a weird bugaboo for Dallas. The Cardinals have won eight of the last nine games outright in this matchup. Otherwise, I would probably be eyeing Dallas -6.5 here.
Dallas should be able to score whatever number it wants, but Arizona will move the ball, too. The total opened at 51.5 on Sunday morning and has steadily risen to 54.5. I can't bet into a number that has moved that much, but that doesn't mean we stay away from the game.
We pivot to the props.
Arizona's defense has been extremely vulnerable, especially against opposing WR1s. The Cardinals are allowing an average of 88.7 yards per game and have surrendered five touchdowns in six games to WR1s.
That includes massive days from Malik Nabers (6/112/1) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (9/155/3). The Cardinals' young corners simply can't stay healthy, and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis is leaving them on islands.
This is the CeeDee Lamb show. George Pickens has dropped back in the food chain and could even be traded, leaving Lamb with a league-leading 81 targets (11.6 per game).
Lamb has six touchdowns in seven games, averaging 93 yards per game with spike performances of 112, 153, and 189 yards. There is no reason he shouldn't light up the Cardinals secondary.
We will start with the traditional over on Lamb's receiving yards — opposing WR1s have cleared 69+ yards in all but one game against Arizona.
From there, we build the escalator. Lamb's Anytime TD is priced exactly at his hit rate for the year, but when Lamb goes over 90 yards, he scores a touchdown in 57% of his career games.
At the top of the escalator, we are playing 150+ yards and 2+ touchdowns. In the nine career games where Lamb has cleared 145 yards, he has scored two touchdowns in six of them (67%). When he is on, Dallas just peppers him with targets.
Pick: CeeDee Lamb Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
Pick: CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (-135 at FanDuel)
Escalator #1: Lamb 100+ Receiving Yards & Anytime TD (+252 at FanDuel)
Escalator #2: Lamb 150+ Receiving Yards (+950 at Caesars)
Escalator #3: Lamb 150+ Receiving Yards & 2+ TDs (+1901 at FanDuel)
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Falcons vs Buccaneers
Not many care about the NFC South, but this is a monster division game. If the Buccaneers win, they will have clawed all the way back from an 0-4 start to lead the division by November.
Both of these teams feature surprisingly good defenses.
Tampa Bay's defense is all the way up to No. 3 in overall DVOA and totally shut down a good Carolina offense in Week 7. The Bucs are elite at stuffing the run, and historically, they have kept Bijan Robinson in check. He averages just 11.2 carries for 46.3 rushing yards per game against Tampa Bay in his career. Michael Penix Jr. thrives on short, quick passes, and the Bucs have been great at taking that away.
Atlanta's defense is also a fringe top-10 unit, with the defensive front playing well and a strong pass defense. The Falcons are going up against their former offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson, which could be a tell for the Bucs offense, combined with Baker Mayfield's lingering hand issues.
Furthermore, this looks like a bad weather game: humid in the 80s with wind and rain. Over the last five seasons, windy games have hit the under at a 61% clip, yielding a 16% ROI. Both defenses have the advantage.
While Robinson hasn't run the ball well against Tampa Bay, he has been extremely dangerous as a receiver. In five healthy career games against the Bucs, he is averaging 59 receiving yards per game, catching 5+ passes for 43+ yards in all but one of them.
The Bucs have allowed 5+ running back receptions in all but one game this year, with opponents consistently attacking linebacker Alex Anzalone.
Robinson's pass-catching volume has been down this year, so I am not playing median outcomes. Instead, we let's play his receiving yardage escalator. He can hit these numbers on one single screen pass.
Robinson has hit 50+ receiving yards 14 times in his career, including three of his five healthy matchups against Tampa Bay. He has cleared 80+ receiving yards six times in his career, including games of 82 and 100 yards against the Bucs.
Pick: Under 45.5 (Fanatics)
Pick: Bijan Robinson 40+ Receiving Yards (+225 at bet365)
Escalator #1: Robinson 50+ Receiving Yards (+400 at bet365)
Escalator #2: Robinson 80+ Receiving Yards (+2000 at Hard Rock)
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Vikings vs Lions
I have been looking for an opportunity to fade Minnesota and bet Detroit, and this is the exact spot to do both. There was never a doubt which side of this game I was going to be on.
The Lions had won five in a row in this rivalry until Minnesota swept them last year. When Detroit had Ben Johnson coordinating the offense, they absolutely killed Brian Flores' defensive schemes, but Flores had the upper hand last season.
It's time to see if this Vikings defense is actually as good as the numbers suggest. I remain skeptical.
So far, the Vikings have faced the Packers with no offensive line, the Bears in a monsoon (plus a late Caleb Williams injury), and pitiful Bucs, Dolphins, Saints, and Colts offenses.
We already knew Flores could make bad quarterbacks and offenses look awful. But now the Vikings face Detroit, Buffalo, Green Bay, and San Francisco over their next stretch, with only one of those games at home. It's a huge step up in competition.
This is the best blocking unit Minnesota has faced, and Jared Goff is the first quarterback the Vikings will see who won't be rattled by the pressure.
Goff will stand and deliver. Amon-Ra St. Brown kills the Vikings, consistently checking down and moving the chains on third down. He has 6+ catches in all 11 career games against Minnesota (-290 at FanDuel if you want a freebie parlay leg). Two years ago, Jahmyr Gibbs put up 330 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns in his two games against Minnesota.
The Lions should score at least 20-24 points. Can the Vikings offense keep up? They are the No. 30 offense by DVOA, and they looked ugly last week against a bad Colts defense despite finally being healthy and rested off a bye.
The Lions defense hasn't been elite, but they are still better than the Vikings offense, especially with the immediate impact of Brian Branch returning at safety.
This is the exact spot you want to back Jared Goff: indoors, at home, in an early window game, as a division favorite.
Pick: Lions -3 (-115 at Caesars)
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Colts vs Jaguars
This is a weird rivalry.
The Colts haven't won a game in Jacksonville since 2014, covering just three of their last 22 matchups against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is rested off a bye, while the Colts essentially just gave up on their season by executing firesale trades.
I considered the Jaguars on a teaser, but the line rocketed from -7.5 all the way to -10, so we are pivoting to props.
This feels like a Parker Washington game.
Indianapolis has been getting killed over the middle of the field and in the slot all season long. Washington plays about half of his snaps in the slot and operates primarily on over-the-middle, in-breaking routes. He broke out at the end of last season, including an 8-catch, 115-yard performance in Week 17 against the Colts.
Over his last nine games, Washington is averaging 5.0 catches for 84.8 yards, a full-season pace of 85 catches for 1,441 yards and 11 touchdowns! He has cleared 64+ yards in seven of his last nine games.
I'll nibble 100+ yards on the escalator but not too aggressively since this has blowout potential and Jacksonville spreads it around so much.
I also want to invest in Bhayshul Tuten. He's now the No. 1 rated running back at PFF, displaying elite running and receiving ability despite playing behind a terrible offensive line.
Sneakily, Tuten has had four touchdowns called back on phantom holding penalties this year, so his raw stats are hiding some serious value. Tuten has also officially pulled away from Chris Rodriguez, seeing his snaps jump from 49% in his first three games to 62% over his last three.
Tuten has gone over 60.5 rushing yards every game this season except against Houston, and the Colts have allowed 68+ rushing yards to a running back in five of their seven games.
Pick: Parker Washington Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
Washington Escalator: Washington 100+ Receiving Yards (+300 at bet365)
Pick: Bhayshul Tuten Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-111 at DraftKings)
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Titans vs Bengals
The Titans are officially punting on the season after trading away Jeffery Simmons. They are heading into a bye in Week 9, and there is little reason to expect anything other than an easy Cincinnati win.
I'm not sure the Titans are particularly good at anything, but their defense has been especially disappointing.
RB touchdowns against Tennessee continue to be an absolute cash cow. The Titans allowed a running back touchdown in 14-of-17 games last year, and they have already allowed the opposing lead RB to score in 5-of-7 games this year.
Chase Brown might be losing his grip on the Bengals' backfield.
He averaged 18 carries per game over the first two weeks but just 11.5 carries since. Crucially, he is also losing his grip in the red zone. Brown has 11 red-zone carries this year, and only four of them have gained more than two yards.
By contrast, Samaje Perine has eight red-zone carries, and all but two have gained over two yards. Perine gets the tough yards. He has scored a red-zone touchdown in two straight games and already had a third taken off the board by penalty this season.
Brown hasn't scored since Week 1, but his Anytime TD is priced at -145 (59% implied probability), while Perine is +245 (29% implied). Brown is absolutely not twice as likely as Perine to score.
Pick: Samaje Perine Anytime TD (+245 at DraftKings)
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Chiefs vs Broncos
We already took Under 42.5 for this game during last week's Lookahead. This game looks like an under all the way, and the market agrees, as it's falling toward 40.5.
You have to love the matchup for both defenses, especially with Denver's offense continuing to struggle and Kansas City dealing with significant wide receiver injuries.
Instead of a side, I am heavily investing in Broncos fourth-round rookie running back Jonah Coleman. We bet him for Offensive Rookie of the Year a few days ago at 60-1, and he is already down to 16-1 at FanDuel.
Coleman barely played in Week 1 before leading the backfield in snaps in Week 2. Then he went on short-term IR, but returned last week to immediately lead the backfield in snaps again — on early downs, third downs, and short yardage.
He saw 30 snaps (as many as J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey combined) and took 50% of the carries. You immediately feel Coleman's juice and explosive ability on the field, something Denver's offense sorely lacks.
He cashed both his rushing over and longest run props in his two actual NFL games, but the Chiefs' run defense is pretty good. The real value is on Coleman as a receiver, especially now that RJ Harvey is in doubt.
Coleman is a great pass catcher with soft hands (he only had one drop in his entire college career on 87 catches) and great YAC ability. He has played 45% of his snaps on passing plays, and we know Bo Nix loves to check the ball down. With Tyler Badie out, Coleman is the only well-rounded back on the roster who doesn't immediately tip the play call.
Coleman's base receiving yards line is 8.5. He has games of 15 and 19 receiving yards in his two healthy outings. One catch might do the trick, but we'll play 15 and 20+ yards too. He's had 15+ yards in each of his real NFL games and was a yard from 20 last week.
Rather than continuing to go up from there, if Coleman does hit a big yardage total, he'll probably need at least one big explosive catch. So let's add a couple longest reception props too.
RJ Harvey has catches of 16, 18, 19, and 52 yards this year, and Coleman is more explosive and should get some of those touches.
One 20-yard screen hits our entire escalator. Your move, Sean Payton.
Pick: Jonah Coleman Over 8.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at BetRivers)
Escalator #1: Coleman 15+ Receiving Yards (+175 at FanDuel)
Escalator #2: Coleman 20+ Receiving Yards (+270 at FanDuel)
Escalator #3: Coleman Longest Reception 15+ Yards (+420 at FanDuel)
Escalator #4: Coleman Longest Reception 20+ Yards (+900 at FanDuel)
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Patriots vs Dolphins
The Patriots are far better passing the ball, both on offense and defense, but it looks windy and rainy in Florida this weekend. That means a heavy emphasis on the run game, and New England ranks in the bottom 10 in DVOA in both rushing offense and rushing defense.
Running the football is Miami's exact script to hang around, and it is what has been working for them.
Ollie Gordon has rushed for 88+ yards in three straight games on excellent volume. With Malik Willis running the ball more, Miami is finally leaning into what it can do behind an solid offensive line.
The Patriots have allowed 73+ yards to a running back in four of their last five games, with the only exception the terrible Raiders backfield. Gordon can get to this number even in a loss.
Pick: Ollie Gordon Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)
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Bengals vs Falcons
I couldn't believe this line when I first saw it. I genuinely thought it was a mistake.
I saw Bengals "at" Falcons and still liked it, but it's not even in Atlanta! This is Sunday morning, in Spain.
The Bengals are under a field-goal favorite on a neutral field? Cincinnati is No. 2 in DVOA right now, ranking in the top 10 across all three phases, boasting its best DVOA profile in over a decade.
Atlanta's defense is pesky, but Joe Burrow will get the ball to his receivers under pressure. In what shapes up to be a likely shootout, you want the quarterback and wide receivers you trust most.
Remember our faithful international trend: if you remove the wonky Jaguars games, international favorites are 30-15 ATS (67%). When those favorites are laying three points or fewer, they are 17-5 ATS (77%).
The Bengals should absolutely crush the Titans this week, while the Falcons could easily lose to the Bucs.
I cannot believe we are getting this line below the key number of three, and I do not expect it to stay there. Grab it now before it's gone.
Pick: Bengals -2.5 (-120 at bet365 / -108 at Polymarket)
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